Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

Hey Adrian. ACE up to 175.

 https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1535328203794956289




https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... ricane?s=w

[toad strangler]

Hey Adrian. ACE up to 175.

https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1535328203794956289

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... ricane?s=w

oceanic & atmospheric .... it take two to tango

[SFLcane]

Hey Adrian. ACE up to 175.

https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1535328203794956289

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... ricane?s=w

Could go even higher after June data is ingested.

[aspen]

TWC has upgraded its forecast to 21/9/4. Unfortunately, I can’t try getting the link to the article without going to the app.

[ouragans]

TWC has upgraded its forecast to 21/9/4. Unfortunately, I can’t try getting the link to the article without going to the app.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... er-company

21 TS... they did it

[cycloneye]

Added Weather Channel June 16 update to the first post list of expert forecasts.

[zzh]

TSR is up. 18/9/4 ace 150.

[cycloneye]

[Teban54]

https://i.imgur.com/52i20AI.jpg

This is 2021 though?

[skyline385]

https://i.imgur.com/52i20AI.jpg

This is 2021 though?

Here’s a SS of the latest one from my phone

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/52i20AI.jpg

This is 2021 though?

Here’s a SS of the latest one from my phone

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220705/2d89b833d935f29f21bf8d95451f7dfc.png

Thanks for the correction.

[zzh]

The current forecast for the JulySeptember trade wind is for 0.77±0.80 ms-1 weaker than normal (1991-2020 climatology). The current forecast for the August-September SST is for 0.25±0.33°C warmer than normal (1991-2020 climatology)

TSR forecast weaker winds and warmer sst compared to May forecast.

[cycloneye]

Next up on Thursday at 11 AM EDT.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1544446285352013825

[al78]

The current forecast for the JulySeptember trade wind is for 0.77±0.80 ms-1 weaker than normal (1991-2020 climatology). The current forecast for the August-September SST is for 0.25±0.33°C warmer than normal (1991-2020 climatology)

TSR forecast weaker winds and warmer sst compared to May forecast.

We also took into account the early development of a potential tropical cyclone in the MDR and tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea.

[wxman57]

The current forecast for the JulySeptember trade wind is for 0.77±0.80 ms-1 weaker than normal (1991-2020 climatology). The current forecast for the August-September SST is for 0.25±0.33°C warmer than normal (1991-2020 climatology)

TSR forecast weaker winds and warmer sst compared to May forecast.

We also took into account the early development of a potential tropical cyclone in the MDR and tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea.

There was no actual development in the MDR. Bonnie developed in the SW Caribbean, which is a common area for development early in the season. PTC advisories have been issued only recently to cover a wave that MAY develop and impact land within 48 hrs.

[aspen]

The current forecast for the JulySeptember trade wind is for 0.77±0.80 ms-1 weaker than normal (1991-2020 climatology). The current forecast for the August-September SST is for 0.25±0.33°C warmer than normal (1991-2020 climatology)

TSR forecast weaker winds and warmer sst compared to May forecast.

We also took into account the early development of a potential tropical cyclone in the MDR and tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea.

There was no actual development in the MDR. Bonnie developed in the SW Caribbean, which is a common area for development early in the season. PTC advisories have been issued only recently to cover a wave that MAY develop and impact land within 48 hrs.

The fact that we got a July system from an AEW is a decent signal for an active year. Seasons from 1980-2020 that had at least one AEW-based June/July system, regardless of location, averaged out to 16.9 NS/9.0 H/4.1 MH and 160.26 ACE. Seasons that had July development from non-tropical sources averaged lower at 14.3 NS/7.1 H/3.2 MH and 119.01 ACE.

Seasons since 1980 that had at least one MDR or ECar system in June/July averaged only slightly higher in named storms counts: 17.5 NS/8.9 H/3.9 MH and 161.47 ACE.

[hurricane2025]

The current forecast for the JulySeptember trade wind is for 0.77±0.80 ms-1 weaker than normal (1991-2020 climatology). The current forecast for the August-September SST is for 0.25±0.33°C warmer than normal (1991-2020 climatology)

TSR forecast weaker winds and warmer sst compared to May forecast.

We also took into account


the early development of a potential tropical cyclone in the MDR and tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea.

There was no actual development in the MDR. Bonnie developed in the SW Caribbean, which is a common area for development early in the season. PTC advisories have been issued only recently to cover a wave that MAY develop and impact land within 48 hrs.

What is your take on the new euro forecast with enhance in the western gulf?

[wxman57]

What is your take on the new euro forecast with enhance in the western gulf?

I'm not sure what algorithm they use to produce such forecasts of enhanced or reduced activity, so it's hard to comment on that, specifically. However, The persistent ridge over the central U.S. and Texas which has led to an extended drought would suggest any enhancement would be for the NE Gulf and/or the southeast U.S. coast.

[SFLcane]

What is your take on the new euro forecast with enhance in the western gulf?

I'm not sure what algorithm they use to produce such forecasts of enhanced or reduced activity, so it's hard to comment on that, specifically. However, The persistent ridge over the central U.S. and Texas which has led to an extended drought would suggest any enhancement would be for the NE Gulf and/or the southeast U.S. coast.

Any thoughts on the reduced OTS look shown on the new euro and 500mb heights?

[cycloneye]