Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook today at 11 AM EDT

#121 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 24, 2022 8:46 am

The expectation grows minutes before the release.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1529087853237510146


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook today at 11 AM EDT

#122 Postby hurricane2025 » Tue May 24, 2022 8:47 am

Here comes NOAA 13-20 storms prediction lol
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook shortly

#123 Postby kevin » Tue May 24, 2022 9:43 am

Just as a reference here's the NOAA May Outlook for every year since 2010. The numbers in brackets behind it are the actual season numbers.

Year / Named storms / Hurricanes / Major hurricanes

2021 / 13-20 (21) / 6-10 (7) / 3-5 (4)
2020 / 13-19 (30) / 6-10 (14) / 3-6 (7)
2019 / 9-15 (18) / 4-8 (6) / 2-4 (3)
2018 / 10-16 (15) / 5-9 (8) / 1-4 (2)
2017 / 11-17 (17) / 5-9 (10) / 2-4 (6)
2016 / 10-16 (15) / 4-8 (7) / 1-4 (4)
2015 / 6-11 (11) / 3-6 (4) / 0-2 (2)
2014 / 8-13 (8) / 3-6 (6) / 1-2 (2)
2013 / 13-20 (14) / 7-11 (2) / 3-6 (0)
2012 / 9-15 (19) / 4-8 (10) / 1-3 (2)
2011 / 12-18 (19) / 6-10 (7) / 3-6 (4)
2010 / 14-23 (19) / 8-14 (12) / 3-7 (5)
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook

#124 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 24, 2022 10:13 am

They are in Brooklyn, NYC making the announcement.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook

#125 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 24, 2022 10:17 am

Above normal season 65%. 14-21 named storms - 6-10 hurricanes - 3-6 majors. I am getting this from FB live.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook

#126 Postby toad strangler » Tue May 24, 2022 10:18 am

Wow their most NS output since 2010 :eek:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook

#127 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue May 24, 2022 10:19 am

cycloneye wrote:Above normal season 65%. 14-21 named storms - 6-10 hurricanes - 3-6 majors. I am getting this from FB live.


So the median is roughly 17.5 NS, 8 H, and 4.5 majors (rounded, would be 18/8/5).

Honestly, not very surprised by the forecast, it's what I expected. Buckle up, we have ways to go
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook: 14-21 named storms

#128 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 24, 2022 10:20 am

Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook: 14-21 named storms / Graphic posted

#129 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 24, 2022 10:33 am

Someone refresh my memory but didn't NOAA give out percentages in the past for hyperactive season as well? Is the ceiling this year only above normal according to their forecast?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook: 14-21 named storms / Graphic posted

#130 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue May 24, 2022 10:34 am

skyline385 wrote:Someone refresh my memory but didn't NOAA give out percentages in the past for hyperactive season as well? Is the ceiling this year only above normal according to their forecast?


No, NOAA typically just assigns the 3 probabilities with above, near, or below normal. Hyperactivity/above normal distinction is typically what hardcore wx enthusiasts like us like to pay attention to, although there are some agencies (UKMET and CSU as examples) that do forecast hyperactivity chances
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook: 14-21 named storms / Graphic posted

#131 Postby NotSparta » Tue May 24, 2022 10:40 am

A touch higher than 2020's or last year's May forecast. A little more restrained than a few of the other agencies too. From their discussion that's probably thanks to the SSTAs in the tropics.

Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook: 14-21 named storms / Graphic posted

#132 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 24, 2022 10:43 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook: 14-21 named storms

#133 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 24, 2022 10:56 am

Another graphic that includes all the basins. EPAC below normal 10-17 named storms and CPAC between 2-4 named storms.

Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook: 14-21 named storms / Graphic posted

#134 Postby toad strangler » Tue May 24, 2022 10:56 am

NotSparta wrote:A touch higher than 2020's or last year's May forecast. A little more restrained than a few of the other agencies too. From their discussion that's probably thanks to the SSTAs in the tropics.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/978683470102548500/unknown.png


I don't see it that way. This is their highest pre season NS output since 2010. That's significant. They are usually more conservative than the private sector, that's kind of a given in my eyes.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook: 14-21 named storms

#135 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 24, 2022 11:06 am

toad strangler wrote:
NotSparta wrote:A touch higher than 2020's or last year's May forecast. A little more restrained than a few of the other agencies too. From their discussion that's probably thanks to the SSTAs in the tropics.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/978683470102548500/unknown.png


I don't see it that way. This is their highest pre season NS output since 2010. That's significant. They are usually more conservative than the private sector, that's kind of a given in my eyes.

They have been steadily increasing their NS every year because of recent climo. 2020 for example had 19 forecast and 2021 had 20 forecast even though 2020 was by far an anomalous season. With the warm subtropical pool, they probably are expecting a ton of shorties and hence the high NS count.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook shortly

#136 Postby Teban54 » Tue May 24, 2022 11:19 am

kevin wrote:Just as a reference here's the NOAA May Outlook for every year since 2010. The numbers in brackets behind it are the actual season numbers.

Year / Named storms / Hurricanes / Major hurricanes

2021 / 13-20 (21) / 6-10 (7) / 3-5 (4)
2020 / 13-19 (30) / 6-10 (14) / 3-6 (7)
2019 / 9-15 (18) / 4-8 (6) / 2-4 (3)
2018 / 10-16 (15) / 5-9 (8) / 1-4 (2)
2017 / 11-17 (17) / 5-9 (10) / 2-4 (6)
2016 / 10-16 (15) / 4-8 (7) / 1-4 (4)
2015 / 6-11 (11) / 3-6 (4) / 0-2 (2)
2014 / 8-13 (8) / 3-6 (6) / 1-2 (2)
2013 / 13-20 (14) / 7-11 (2) / 3-6 (0)
2012 / 9-15 (19) / 4-8 (10) / 1-3 (2)
2011 / 12-18 (19) / 6-10 (7) / 3-6 (4)
2010 / 14-23 (19) / 8-14 (12) / 3-7 (5)

So to put this year's forecast of 14-21 NS, 6-10 H, 3-6 MH in perspective, the H and MH counts are identical to 2011 and 2020, similar to 2021, and a bit below 2010 and 2013 (lol).

I'm not sure how much weight to place into the NS counts, as I don't know how much the better detection technology we have in recent years have been taken into consideration, if at all. Regardless, the H/MH counts are enough to show the forecasted favorable base state despite SSTs below expectation from some.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook: 14-21 named storms

#137 Postby tolakram » Tue May 24, 2022 12:25 pm

Time to pony up with your own predictions if you haven't already. The 2022 poll closes when the season starts.

2022 Poll: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=122570

Thanks!
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#138 Postby hurricanetrack » Wed May 25, 2022 2:43 pm

Thought you all might get a lot out of these infographics from one of our supporters; a very talented young man headed off to college in the fall.

Image

Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#139 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 26, 2022 7:53 am

Highly encourage everyone to read weathertigers seasonal outlook. A block buster season coming!

 https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1529804520464711680


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#140 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 26, 2022 8:03 am

SFLcane wrote:Highly encourage everyone to read weathertigers seasonal outlook. A block buster season coming!

https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1529804520464711680?s=21&t=SHDaWJsvfAwPAlayjes6oA


Added with the link to whole outlook. Very interesting and worrisome at the same time.
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