toad strangler wrote:cycloneye wrote:wxman57 wrote:
OK, a tiny hint. He's not raising his numbers.
Good. Thank you.
The nearly complete wasteland that July was combined with strong signs of a slow 1st half of August makes it nearly a given that there will be steps taken backwards. I don’t think there is any mystery at all there.
Now, what would be eye opening, is if there is a significant reduction in numbers due to what Mr Klotzbach is seeing for the post 8/20 peak season.
One big reason to certainly not raise numbers is to consider the current state of the basin. Climatologically, we'd expect a sharp ramp-up in activity starting very soon. There's no sign of that. With only 3 named storms so far, and maybe no fourth named storm for another two weeks, it will be hard to reach the very high numbers. I would expected maybe 4-5 named storms by the beginning of August, and a strong signal for activity heating up very soon. We're not seeing that. Clearly, something is "off" out there across the tropics. Conditions are not as favorable as we thought they would be. I'm confident that conditions will become much more favorable by the second half of August, but that may be too late to generate 20 named storms or more. I'm seeing similarities to past seasons that featured significant impacts across the NE Gulf, Florida, and the East U.S. Coast. Less of a threat to Texas this year.