Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#221 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jul 12, 2022 2:31 pm

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CSU's July 7th update didn't back off from an active season. The map is hurricanes during CSU's analog years. Definite track pattern during La Nina years and not sure how Florida's landfall probabilities are significantly higher than normal using the CSU analog years.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#222 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Jul 12, 2022 3:06 pm

I have always thought the idea of analog years is very fuzzy at best. Years never repeat exactly, and usually, not even that closely. Also, years like this one are very rare... third year la ninas haven't happened very often.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#223 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 14, 2022 6:49 pm

The question is if the experts (CSU, NOAA, TSR, Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather, Weather Channel etc) will trim down the numbers in their August forecasts or stay with very active season. We will know in early August.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#224 Postby Nimbus » Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:00 pm

Season has been relatively quiet with lots of shear and upper level lows in the tropics thus far, but its only mid July.
All we need is a strong TUTT in mid August and September to keep the numbers down.
The experts that missed the early season lull will bring their numbers down but if the pattern changes back to a strong mid Atlantic ridge maybe not so much.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#225 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:The question is if the experts (CSU, NOAA, TSR, Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather, Weather Channel etc) will trim down the numbers in their August forecasts or stay with very active season. We will know in early August.


If the quiet July extends onto mid-August as some models are showing, I would be very surprised if the expert forecasts don't reduce their numbers (even if only slightly).
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#226 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:15 pm

At this point, I think a +20 NS season is rather unlikely, and I wouldn't be surprised to be experts adjust their numbers downwards to reflect the high teens as an upper limit. However, I still think it's possible for this season to be a quality season (so ACE count and MHs may not really be projected to change much)
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#227 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:34 pm

Nimbus wrote:Season has been relatively quiet with lots of shear and upper level lows in the tropics thus far, but its only mid July.
All we need is a strong TUTT in mid August and September to keep the numbers down.
The experts that missed the early season lull will bring their numbers down but if the pattern changes back to a strong mid Atlantic ridge maybe not so much.


1. Shear has been anomalously low
2. Those experts base their forecast on predicted ASO conditions, since June + July constitute 7% of climatological ACE

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#228 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:51 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:
Nimbus wrote:Season has been relatively quiet with lots of shear and upper level lows in the tropics thus far, but its only mid July.
All we need is a strong TUTT in mid August and September to keep the numbers down.
The experts that missed the early season lull will bring their numbers down but if the pattern changes back to a strong mid Atlantic ridge maybe not so much.


1. Shear has been anomalously low
2. Those experts base their forecast on predicted ASO conditions, since June + July constitute 7% of climatological ACE

https://i.imgur.com/aJGyM6M.gif

https://i.imgur.com/mDv9JYP.png


Good points, just want to add NOAA's broad range of storm numbers means that they dont have to revise their forecasts as much as the others. The lower end of this year's forecast would be 14/6/3 which is easily achievable looking at the current conditions.

Forecasters like CSU with their 20/10/5 and 180 ACE would feel more inclined to revise their forecasts if we are halfway through August with little activity, mid- August is also 12% of the climo ACE.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#229 Postby toad strangler » Thu Jul 14, 2022 8:07 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:
Nimbus wrote:Season has been relatively quiet with lots of shear and upper level lows in the tropics thus far, but its only mid July.
All we need is a strong TUTT in mid August and September to keep the numbers down.
The experts that missed the early season lull will bring their numbers down but if the pattern changes back to a strong mid Atlantic ridge maybe not so much.


1. Shear has been anomalously low
2. Those experts base their forecast on predicted ASO conditions, since June + July constitute 7% of climatological ACE

https://i.imgur.com/aJGyM6M.gif

https://i.imgur.com/mDv9JYP.png


In May and June there was some teeth grinding over the lack of pre season or early season shorties as if it was new climatology for the Atlantic Basin to expect them.

That, IMO translates into more and more unfounded expectations for a period like all of July into the first half of August where it’s standard climatology to see SAL ridden mid level dry air and wind shear across much of the usual development zones.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#230 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 15, 2022 12:18 am

skyline385 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The question is if the experts (CSU, NOAA, TSR, Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather, Weather Channel etc) will trim down the numbers in their August forecasts or stay with very active season. We will know in early August.


If the quiet July extends onto mid-August as some models are showing, I would be very surprised if the expert forecasts don't reduce their numbers (even if only slightly).


Maybe only slightly, but middle August doesn’t always make much of a difference in la ninas IMHO. GFS has been predicting a couple EPAC storms so maybe we get a small burst after that. It’s hard to say. Long range is starting to show more significant waves coming off Africa but they are spaced out. And long range GFS only goes into early August. I’d wait to see what the MJO is doing and where we are at more in early September. I know some sources have August updates that demonstrate skill.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#231 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Jul 15, 2022 12:31 pm

Steve wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The question is if the experts (CSU, NOAA, TSR, Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather, Weather Channel etc) will trim down the numbers in their August forecasts or stay with very active season. We will know in early August.


If the quiet July extends onto mid-August as some models are showing, I would be very surprised if the expert forecasts don't reduce their numbers (even if only slightly).


Maybe only slightly, but middle August doesn’t always make much of a difference in la ninas IMHO. GFS has been predicting a couple EPAC storms so maybe we get a small burst after that. It’s hard to say. Long range is starting to show more significant waves coming off Africa but they are spaced out. And long range GFS only goes into early August. I’d wait to see what the MJO is doing and where we are at more in early September. I know some sources have August updates that demonstrate skill.


Right. Look at 2017 for instance. There was low ACE until Harvey which didn't ramp up until after August 20th. I agree that early September tells a lot more about a season than mid-August.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#232 Postby skyline385 » Fri Jul 15, 2022 1:14 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Steve wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
If the quiet July extends onto mid-August as some models are showing, I would be very surprised if the expert forecasts don't reduce their numbers (even if only slightly).


Maybe only slightly, but middle August doesn’t always make much of a difference in la ninas IMHO. GFS has been predicting a couple EPAC storms so maybe we get a small burst after that. It’s hard to say. Long range is starting to show more significant waves coming off Africa but they are spaced out. And long range GFS only goes into early August. I’d wait to see what the MJO is doing and where we are at more in early September. I know some sources have August updates that demonstrate skill.


Right. Look at 2017 for instance. There was low ACE until Harvey which didn't ramp up until after August 20th. I agree that early September tells a lot more about a season than mid-August.

2017 was a very different state though, it was ENSO +ve in spring and then flipped to a strong Nina through peak season (which as i mentioned in the indicators thread have accounted for some of our record breaking seasons) and the SSTs were extremely high, particularly near the Canaries which allowed for MDR runners like Irma, Jose and Maria to rack up big ACE numbers.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#233 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Jul 15, 2022 2:13 pm

skyline385 wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Steve wrote:
Maybe only slightly, but middle August doesn’t always make much of a difference in la ninas IMHO. GFS has been predicting a couple EPAC storms so maybe we get a small burst after that. It’s hard to say. Long range is starting to show more significant waves coming off Africa but they are spaced out. And long range GFS only goes into early August. I’d wait to see what the MJO is doing and where we are at more in early September. I know some sources have August updates that demonstrate skill.


Right. Look at 2017 for instance. There was low ACE until Harvey which didn't ramp up until after August 20th. I agree that early September tells a lot more about a season than mid-August.

2017 was a very different state though, it was ENSO +ve in spring and then flipped to a strong Nina through peak season (which as i mentioned in the indicators thread have accounted for some of our record breaking seasons) and the SSTs were extremely high, particularly near the Canaries which allowed for MDR runners like Irma, Jose and Maria to rack up big ACE numbers.


True, but I was mainly trying to illustrate that the start of the peak season was after mid-August. This year is different than 2017, but mid-August and prior activity is usually not a great predictor of peak season activity. September is by far the most active month in the basin concerning ACE and named storms on average. For these reasons, I wait until September before changing my outlook of seasonal activity.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#234 Postby weeniepatrol » Fri Jul 15, 2022 2:29 pm

skyline385 wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Steve wrote:
Maybe only slightly, but middle August doesn’t always make much of a difference in la ninas IMHO. GFS has been predicting a couple EPAC storms so maybe we get a small burst after that. It’s hard to say. Long range is starting to show more significant waves coming off Africa but they are spaced out. And long range GFS only goes into early August. I’d wait to see what the MJO is doing and where we are at more in early September. I know some sources have August updates that demonstrate skill.


Right. Look at 2017 for instance. There was low ACE until Harvey which didn't ramp up until after August 20th. I agree that early September tells a lot more about a season than mid-August.

2017 was a very different state though, it was ENSO +ve in spring and then flipped to a strong Nina through peak season (which as i mentioned in the indicators thread have accounted for some of our record breaking seasons) and the SSTs were extremely high, particularly near the Canaries which allowed for MDR runners like Irma, Jose and Maria to rack up big ACE numbers.


Sorry for the minor correction but 2017 was a weak Niña and this year every single trimonthly has run far cooler than that year
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#235 Postby weeniepatrol » Fri Jul 15, 2022 6:16 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:Sorry for the minor correction but 2017 was a weak Niña and this year every single trimonthly has run far cooler than that year


We can see that in terms of ONI, 2022 is running about -1.3 below 2017. Other metrics such as MEI exhibit an even greater difference. We could still end up with a similar ASO trimonthly to 2017, that's true. But the comparison as of now doesn't really hold

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#236 Postby Spacecoast » Sun Jul 24, 2022 3:47 pm

Ran across Univ of Arizona's June updated forecast.
Didn't see it previously posted, so here it is (/was).....

Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#237 Postby Spacecoast » Mon Jul 25, 2022 9:45 am

jconsor wrote:Climate Impact Company Forecast is out:

https://climateimpactcompany.com/north- ... atology-3/

The Climate Impact Company 2022 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season forecast is based on a new forecast methodology. The methodology accounts for activity, intensity and location. The activity forecast indicates 19 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes for the 2022 season. The activity forecast rank is in the top ten highest from the 1950-2021 climatology. The ACE index forecast which identifies the intensity of the season is 135 ranking 20th most intense in the 1950-2021 climatology. The location forecast favors the most active and intense zone for tropical cyclones across Florida and just-off the U.S. East Coast. Florida is a primary landfall target for 2022 tropical cyclones. The forecast is based on a multivariate ENSO index analog combined with analogs for the North Atlantic SSTA pattern by combining both the AMO and TNA regimes.

Their analog years (based on expected atmospheric ENSO response i.e. MEI, and expected Atlantic SST including AMO and TNA) are 2000, 2001, 2008, 2012, 2019, 2020.


Climate Impact Company just updated their forecast yesterday....
Seasonal Amount Forecast for North Atlantic Tropics Reduced Slightly; Mostly “Fish” Storms. Still…Expect 2 Major Hurricanes to Strike U.S.

https://climateimpactcompany.com/seasonal-amount-forecast-for-north-atlantic-tropics-reduced-slightly-mostly-fish-storms-stillexpect-2-major-hurricanes-to-strike-u-s-2-2/

They dropped from 20/10/5 to 18/8/3.....:

Image

"Executive summary: Due to unexpected cooler than normal waters in the North Atlantic basin subtropics and only near normal SSTA in the deep tropics the 2022 seasonal tropical cyclone forecast is reduced slightly in the latest Climate Impact Company update. A La Nina climate persists and the attendant low-shear upper tropospheric wind to allow tropical cyclones to flourish is still expected. However, slightly reduced upper ocean heat will make this season slightly less robust than previously indicated. The analog years suggest that most of this season’s storms will stay out to sea. However, the analog years also suggest renegade unusually strong storms making landfall on the U.S. Coast is likely and they could occur as late as October. Operational forecasts indicate limited or no risk of tropical cyclone activity the next 15 days (through August 7th). This season is shaping up as a delayed start to the core of the seasonal activity and once the pattern becomes active lingering later than normal (through October) is (now) expected."
Image

Updated seasonal activity forecast: The NEW analog years selected to produce the updated seasonal tropical cyclone activity outlook for the North Atlantic basin are 2000, 2011, 2012 and 2018.
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Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#238 Postby skyline385 » Mon Jul 25, 2022 10:48 am

Spacecoast wrote:
jconsor wrote:Climate Impact Company Forecast is out:

https://climateimpactcompany.com/north- ... atology-3/

The Climate Impact Company 2022 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season forecast is based on a new forecast methodology. The methodology accounts for activity, intensity and location. The activity forecast indicates 19 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes for the 2022 season. The activity forecast rank is in the top ten highest from the 1950-2021 climatology. The ACE index forecast which identifies the intensity of the season is 135 ranking 20th most intense in the 1950-2021 climatology. The location forecast favors the most active and intense zone for tropical cyclones across Florida and just-off the U.S. East Coast. Florida is a primary landfall target for 2022 tropical cyclones. The forecast is based on a multivariate ENSO index analog combined with analogs for the North Atlantic SSTA pattern by combining both the AMO and TNA regimes.

Their analog years (based on expected atmospheric ENSO response i.e. MEI, and expected Atlantic SST including AMO and TNA) are 2000, 2001, 2008, 2012, 2019, 2020.


Climate Impact Company just updated their forecast yesterday....
Seasonal Amount Forecast for North Atlantic Tropics Reduced Slightly; Mostly “Fish” Storms. Still…Expect 2 Major Hurricanes to Strike U.S.

https://climateimpactcompany.com/seasonal-amount-forecast-for-north-atlantic-tropics-reduced-slightly-mostly-fish-storms-stillexpect-2-major-hurricanes-to-strike-u-s-2-2/

They dropped from 20/10/5 to 18/8/3.....:

Image

"Executive summary: Due to unexpected cooler than normal waters in the North Atlantic basin subtropics and only near normal SSTA in the deep tropics the 2022 seasonal tropical cyclone forecast is reduced slightly in the latest Climate Impact Company update. A La Nina climate persists and the attendant low-shear upper tropospheric wind to allow tropical cyclones to flourish is still expected. However, slightly reduced upper ocean heat will make this season slightly less robust than previously indicated. The analog years suggest that most of this season’s storms will stay out to sea. However, the analog years also suggest renegade unusually strong storms making landfall on the U.S. Coast is likely and they could occur as late as October. Operational forecasts indicate limited or no risk of tropical cyclone activity the next 15 days (through August 7th). This season is shaping up as a delayed start to the core of the seasonal activity and once the pattern becomes active lingering later than normal (through October) is (now) expected."
Image

Updated seasonal activity forecast: The NEW analog years selected to produce the updated seasonal tropical cyclone activity outlook for the North Atlantic basin are 2000, 2011, 2012 and 2018.

2000 and 2011 are good analogs imo but can’t see the similarity with 2012 and 2018 as 2012 was ENSO+ve during ASO and 2018 was a Nino year.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#239 Postby aspen » Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:45 am

Spacecoast wrote:Ran across Univ of Arizona's June updated forecast.
Didn't see it previously posted, so here it is (/was).....

https://i.ibb.co/hDDrmDK/ua.jpg

I was originally surprised at how low UA went compared to every other forecasting agency, but after the last few months, I’m thinking they may end up being the closest to reality.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#240 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:53 am

aspen wrote:
Spacecoast wrote:Ran across Univ of Arizona's June updated forecast.
Didn't see it previously posted, so here it is (/was).....

https://i.ibb.co/hDDrmDK/ua.jpg

I was originally surprised at how low UA went compared to every other forecasting agency, but after the last few months, I’m thinking they may end up being the closest to reality.


Keep in mind though that U of A is one of the newer forecasting agencies, so they admit that many of their error bounds are due to a rather small sample size
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