Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#81 Postby skyline385 » Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:41 am

wxman57 wrote:I was talking with Phil Klotzbach the other day. New data is even more bullish on seasonal activity, indicating ACE of 170-190. One think to look for is whether the current drought in TX/LA continues into July. That would be good for people there, as hurricane activity may shift east of Louisiana this year.


Considering 2020 had an ACE of 180, that's not looking good. It's also against the current theory that there will be a lot of shorties because of the warm sub tropics.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#82 Postby NotSparta » Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:53 am

wxman57 wrote:I was talking with Phil Klotzbach the other day. New data is even more bullish on seasonal activity, indicating ACE of 170-190. One think to look for is whether the current drought in TX/LA continues into July. That would be good for people there, as hurricane activity may shift east of Louisiana this year.


Have to wonder what the experts see, there seems to be even more bullishness surrounding the season than 2020 but the conditions aren't quite all there it seems unlike 2020. Perhaps the -NAO will change that but it is definitely interesting to see everyone going high end
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#83 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Apr 21, 2022 10:06 am

wxman57 wrote:I was talking with Phil Klotzbach the other day. New data is even more bullish on seasonal activity, indicating ACE of 170-190. One think to look for is whether the current drought in TX/LA continues into July. That would be good for people there, as hurricane activity may shift east of Louisiana this year.


If you are under some NDAs that prevent you from telling us why, you do not have to answer, but why is an ACE between 170 and 190 expected?

Also, if that verifies, all I can say is yikes! :eek: By modern averages, an ACE of 190 would correlate to ~27 named storms.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#84 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:11 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I was talking with Phil Klotzbach the other day. New data is even more bullish on seasonal activity, indicating ACE of 170-190. One think to look for is whether the current drought in TX/LA continues into July. That would be good for people there, as hurricane activity may shift east of Louisiana this year.


If you are under some NDAs that prevent you from telling us why, you do not have to answer, but why is an ACE between 170 and 190 expected?

Also, if that verifies, all I can say is yikes! :eek: By modern averages, an ACE of 190 would correlate to ~27 named storms.


Yeah I echo your curiosity too; I wonder what specific reasons Phil decided to up the ACE prediction to that level. Because that is quite a major and potentially dire prediction, and I am very interested to know the rationale behind this!
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Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Season

#85 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 21, 2022 12:31 pm

And yet, another forecaster upped his numbers from 16/9/3 to 21/9/4 and that is Rob Lightborn of crownweather services. See here.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Season

#86 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Apr 21, 2022 1:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:And yet, another forecaster upped his numbers from 16/9/3 to 21/9/4 and that is Rob Lightborn of crownweather services. See here.


It looks like he has explained his rationale in the prediction poll thread; personally, I have to say that assuming the MDR does have a very favorable net warmup within the next 2-3 months and given the fact that Africa already looks convectively active and that this season will begin in solid La Nina territory, I do agree where he is going.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#87 Postby SFLcane » Thu Apr 21, 2022 3:07 pm

wxman57 wrote:I was talking with Phil Klotzbach the other day. New data is even more bullish on seasonal activity, indicating ACE of 170-190. One think to look for is whether the current drought in TX/LA continues into July. That would be good for people there, as hurricane activity may shift east of Louisiana this year.


Question for us lucky in Florida do you believe this potentially ends this year? Also can you share some of this new data? Ssts certainly don’t support anything in that range as of yet.
Last edited by SFLcane on Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#88 Postby SFLcane » Thu Apr 21, 2022 3:09 pm

What did Crownweather predict last April? Curious
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#89 Postby crownweather » Thu Apr 21, 2022 6:39 pm

SFLcane wrote:What did Crownweather predict last April? Curious


Here is my graphic that I posted last year for the 2021 Hurricane Season.

Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#90 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Apr 21, 2022 6:50 pm

crownweather wrote:
SFLcane wrote:What did Crownweather predict last April? Curious


Here is my graphic that I posted last year for the 2021 Hurricane Season.

https://i.imgur.com/6h5qQG4.png


Oh wow, you really nailed that major hurricane number! Also it looks like you underestimated the NS total but did only one over the number of hurricanes! Wow, for a pre-season forecast, you really did 2021 well.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#91 Postby TheProfessor » Sun Apr 24, 2022 9:09 pm

wxman57 wrote:I was talking with Phil Klotzbach the other day. New data is even more bullish on seasonal activity, indicating ACE of 170-190. One think to look for is whether the current drought in TX/LA continues into July. That would be good for people there, as hurricane activity may shift east of Louisiana this year.


I wouldn't be so quick to shut the door on Texas and Louisiana. I do agree that the drought will play a part in this season, but it's not just Texas and Louisiana that will play a part. Let's first compare April 2011 and the current drought. I like comparing to 2011 because it was a case of a lid being placed on the western Gulf for the most part.

Image

Image

Immediately you can see that in 2011 the drought was focused over the Southern Plains and U.S Southwest. Now let's look at the drought heading into July.

Image

Again the drought was focused on the Southern Plains, Southwest, and Southeast. This made the Southern Plains a favorable spot for the ridge to sit on top for the Summer and keep the western Gulf clear. The Southern Plains would be the focus of the drought through the rest of the Summer. Now let's look back at the current drought again.

Image

The entire western U.S is under drought right now and the only area CPC expects improvement is southern Arizona. This suggests that the ridge will be placed over the western U.S at times this Summer, which will leave Texas and Louisiana open for landfalls assuming all other conditions are met. There will be times where the ridge does park over the Plains, but I don't think it will be nearly as dominant as 2011. Additionally there will likely be times where we see the western ridge and Bermuda ridge bridge together, which can actually make parts of the Texas coast and Mexico locations where landfalls could occur. These are just my thoughts on how the 500mb pattern will play out this Summer, but it's definitely way to early to be hopeful about storms going east of the western Gulf states.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#92 Postby skyline385 » Sat Apr 30, 2022 11:18 am

Didnt see the UA report shared here but they are predicting only slightly above average for this season with an ACE of 129 which is less than what they predicted for 2021.

https://news.arizona.edu/story/experts- ... ve-average

Something to note here though, UA were actually slightly better or tied with CSU for predicting no. of named storms from 2019-2021 which is pretty good performance from their model which only started in 2014.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#93 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Apr 30, 2022 11:31 am

skyline385 wrote:Didnt see the UA report shared here but they are predicting only slightly above average for this season with an ACE of 129 which is less than what they predicted for 2021.

https://news.arizona.edu/story/experts- ... ve-average

Something to note here though, UA were actually slightly better or tied with CSU for predicting no. of named storms from 2019-2021 which is pretty good performance from their model which only started in 2014.


Are there any unfavorable factors that they are considering for this to be the case though? From my understanding we seem to be quite ahead of 2021, especially when looking at overall sst anomalies (by this time of the year for example, 2021 had a warm subtropics and Nino region but cool MDR region, while that is not the case this year, let alone us being in a third year La Niña)
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#94 Postby skyline385 » Sat Apr 30, 2022 11:40 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Didnt see the UA report shared here but they are predicting only slightly above average for this season with an ACE of 129 which is less than what they predicted for 2021.

https://news.arizona.edu/story/experts- ... ve-average

Something to note here though, UA were actually slightly better or tied with CSU for predicting no. of named storms from 2019-2021 which is pretty good performance from their model which only started in 2014.


Are there any unfavorable factors that they are considering for this to be the case though? From my understanding we seem to be quite ahead of 2021, especially when looking at overall sst anomalies (by this time of the year for example, 2021 had a warm subtropics and Nino region but cool MDR region, while that is not the case this year, let alone us being in a third year La Niña)


Gotta remember, they ran their model before the recent warming of the MDR when the SSTs were anomalously cool. But obviously its only April and there is still plenty of time, the recent warming could just be temporary.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#95 Postby NotSparta » Sat Apr 30, 2022 11:43 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Didnt see the UA report shared here but they are predicting only slightly above average for this season with an ACE of 129 which is less than what they predicted for 2021.

https://news.arizona.edu/story/experts- ... ve-average

Something to note here though, UA were actually slightly better or tied with CSU for predicting no. of named storms from 2019-2021 which is pretty good performance from their model which only started in 2014.


Are there any unfavorable factors that they are considering for this to be the case though? From my understanding we seem to be quite ahead of 2021, especially when looking at overall sst anomalies (by this time of the year for example, 2021 had a warm subtropics and Nino region but cool MDR region, while that is not the case this year, let alone us being in a third year La Niña)


There's still the MDR being cooler than the subtropics, but that's moreso just a cap on the season which would prevent a really hyperactive season. Wish they'd provide a bit more methodology so we could see what they are seeing
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#96 Postby skyline385 » Sat Apr 30, 2022 11:50 am

NotSparta wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Didnt see the UA report shared here but they are predicting only slightly above average for this season with an ACE of 129 which is less than what they predicted for 2021.

https://news.arizona.edu/story/experts- ... ve-average

Something to note here though, UA were actually slightly better or tied with CSU for predicting no. of named storms from 2019-2021 which is pretty good performance from their model which only started in 2014.


Are there any unfavorable factors that they are considering for this to be the case though? From my understanding we seem to be quite ahead of 2021, especially when looking at overall sst anomalies (by this time of the year for example, 2021 had a warm subtropics and Nino region but cool MDR region, while that is not the case this year, let alone us being in a third year La Niña)


There's still the MDR being cooler than the subtropics, but that's moreso just a cap on the season which would prevent a really hyperactive season. Wish they'd provide a bit more methodology so we could see what they are seeing


I found their brief report of the 2021 season which talks about their methodology, am curious though why there isn't a report available yet for the 2022 season.

https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/f ... recast.pdf
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Texas hurricane word press up

#97 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 03, 2022 9:56 am

Read the Texas Hurricane word press forecast at the bottom of the list at first post.

Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Texas hurricane word press is up

#98 Postby hurricane2025 » Tue May 03, 2022 10:00 am

Lol stupid 14-21 storms lol just say 18-21 why such a wide margin
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Texas hurricane word press is up

#99 Postby wxman57 » Thu May 05, 2022 9:04 am

hurricane2025 wrote:Lol stupid 14-21 storms lol just say 18-21 why such a wide margin


Because the forecast is for 17.5 named storms, +/- one standard deviation.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#100 Postby wxman57 » Thu May 05, 2022 9:05 am

New ECMWF June-November seasonal forecast is out. EC dropped named storms from 18.8 to 16. Hurricanes dropped to 8 from 9.
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