Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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wxman57
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up

#21 Postby wxman57 » Sat Mar 12, 2022 12:41 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
cajungal wrote:I see that SE Louisiana is in the red again. Finally got new roof last month. But still need to do the rest of the interior of the house. So praying for no more


I wouldn't get too excited about such landfall predictions. They're basically guesses based on where storms made landfall based on conditions that exist pre-season and (sometimes bad) predictions of what will be going on by Aug/Sep. It's particularly difficult to predict Gulf activity a long way out. Klotzbach and I have talked about this a number of times. We can kind of get a feel of how the MDR might be, but the Gulf is a different animal. I'll be seeing Phil at the NTWC in S. Padre in early April then at the NHC the following week.

Even if activity is above normal this year (seems likely), the Gulf could be quiet if the MDR is more active (early recurves).


Just curious, but what factors exactly do these sorts of forecasts base their landfall risk zones on? From my understanding, isn't it extraordinarily early to tell anything in terms of land impacts?


Higher risk areas can be based upon a combination of season analogs and regions where conditions may be more favorable for development during the season. It's just a little more than a guess, but not much more. For example, it looks like the MDR may be less hostile than it has been since 2017, when the east Caribbean islands were hit hard. This could mean an increased risk to the Lesser Antilles to the Dominican Republic than in more recent years. Analog years suggest an increased risk to the southeast U.S. However, it all comes down to steering currents when and where a storm forms.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up

#22 Postby crownweather » Mon Mar 14, 2022 12:09 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
cajungal wrote:I see that SE Louisiana is in the red again. Finally got new roof last month. But still need to do the rest of the interior of the house. So praying for no more


I wouldn't get too excited about such landfall predictions. They're basically guesses based on where storms made landfall based on conditions that exist pre-season and (sometimes bad) predictions of what will be going on by Aug/Sep. It's particularly difficult to predict Gulf activity a long way out. Klotzbach and I have talked about this a number of times. We can kind of get a feel of how the MDR might be, but the Gulf is a different animal. I'll be seeing Phil at the NTWC in S. Padre in early April then at the NHC the following week.

Even if activity is above normal this year (seems likely), the Gulf could be quiet if the MDR is more active (early recurves).


Just curious, but what factors exactly do these sorts of forecasts base their landfall risk zones on? From my understanding, isn't it extraordinarily early to tell anything in terms of land impacts?


Thanks for the question. I use a combination of analog years, ONI trends as compared to previous years, climate model trends for 500 mb heights. All trends seems to really point to a East Coast weighted year. I don't like to put New England at a high risk ever, just because of how rare a significant impact up here is. With that said, the clock is ticking for a significant hurricane impact in New England. I live in Massachusetts and I can tell you a legitimately major hurricane landfall on the order of a Carol (1954) or a 1938 redux would be absolutely catastrophic and put us back in the pre-electricity days for a few weeks if not months in some areas. Unfortunately, many here I don't think realize what a significant hurricane would do up here and still think a significant hurricane is Gloria, Irene or Sandy.

Anyways, I came up with 1956, 1976, 1985, 1989, 1996, 2012 and 2018 as analog years based off of ONI ENSO trends. Supporting this is the EPS seasonal forecast and the NMME seasonal forecast which both show a pattern that supports storms turning northwestward and northward very near or right along the US East Coast.

Also, I just saw Ben Noll's tweet which referenced higher heights at 500 mb over NE Canada. Not good at all, if that verifies for E Coast residents.

Finally, I found FireRat's post on the Chinese Zodiac and applying it to seasonal forecasting extremely intriguing - especially where I'm a Tiger on the Zodiac wheel (1974 baby). Anyways, one of the tiger years is 1938, although it seems to be the oddball year out in terms of New England impacts. Other tiger years seems to focus on the FL peninsula or the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic, although the central US Gulf Coast also seems lit up with Carmen in 1974 and Georges in 1998.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#23 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Mar 16, 2022 2:05 pm

wxman57 wrote:
OuterBanker wrote:Not sure if the mods would consider these forecast expert, but they are from legitimate local network TV stations.
And they are something to break the ice early.

Btw, they are the same exact same forecast. I guess their affiliates?

https://www.wjcl.com/article/savannah-2 ... /39151803#

https://www.wesh.com/article/wesh-2022- ... /39164302#


Looks like BS, to me. Predicting exact dates when lows will form 8 months out?


I agree wxman. Found another station with same forecast.

https://www.wpbf.com/article/florida-hu ... /39296869#

Where are they getting this from. Seems to me to border on misinformation.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#24 Postby Steve » Thu Mar 17, 2022 8:54 am

Weatherbell put out theirs last Saturday:

NS 18-22
H 6-10
MH 2-4
Ace 140-180

They think there will be a lot of fish systems this year but not all. They said their impact zone forecast will be out in April.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#25 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:44 am

Steve wrote:Weatherbell put out theirs last Saturday:

NS 18-22
H 6-10
MH 2-4
Ace 140-180

They think there will be a lot of fish systems this year but not all. They said their impact zone forecast will be out in April.


I need a link to post it at the list.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#26 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 24, 2022 7:22 am

FYI= Here is the forecast from StormGeo that has 19/8/4 but will not add it to the list. Added to this post is their graphic of probabilities.

https://www.stormgeo.com/weather/articl ... cast-2022/

Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#27 Postby SFLcane » Thu Mar 24, 2022 11:41 am

Ok 57 stop it... Should i go buy my shutters already? :eek:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#28 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Mar 30, 2022 3:03 pm

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#29 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 30, 2022 4:27 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Accuweather today for 2022.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... st/1164507


This one was added to the list as is a well known company.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU will release their forecast on April 7 at 10 AM EDT

#30 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 31, 2022 11:46 am

One of the most anticipated forecasts every year is the CSU one and on April 7th, they will release their first seasonal forecast at 10 AM EDT.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1509571906868895756


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU will release their forecast on April 7 at 10 AM EDT

#31 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:20 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU will release their forecast on April 7 at 10 AM EDT

#32 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:29 am

This is where the fun begins.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU will release their forecast on April 7 at 10 AM EDT

#33 Postby tolakram » Wed Apr 06, 2022 11:13 am

Keep in mind that historically the April forecast has NO skill and is often negative. I'm glad they issue it as the discussion is the important part, I just wish they left the numbers out. In my opinion.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU will release their forecast on April 7 at 10 AM EDT

#34 Postby SFLcane » Thu Apr 07, 2022 7:40 am

Phil will be active today! Bank on it
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU will release their forecast on April 7 at 10 AM EDT

#35 Postby SFLcane » Thu Apr 07, 2022 8:24 am

Watch Phil here -----> http://hurricanecenterlive.com/live-event.html

edit... Audio unfortunately is very bad.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU will release their forecast on April 7 at 10 AM EDT

#36 Postby SFLcane » Thu Apr 07, 2022 8:58 am

Holy cow phil! 19/9/4 :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU will release their forecast on April 7 at 10 AM EDT

#37 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Thu Apr 07, 2022 9:05 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU will release their forecast on April 7 at 10 AM EDT

#38 Postby NotSparta » Thu Apr 07, 2022 9:17 am

Did not expect an explicit hyperactive forecast in April. Thing is they actually went lower than their average for all schemes probably because the model forecasts were going full weenie (looking at you, JMA)
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU will release their forecast on April 7 at 10 AM EDT

#39 Postby ChrisH-UK » Thu Apr 07, 2022 9:44 am

Here is the CSU's forecast paper - https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-04.pdf
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU will release their forecast on April 7 at 10 AM EDT

#40 Postby zzh » Thu Apr 07, 2022 9:44 am

tolakram wrote:Keep in mind that historically the April forecast has NO skill and is often negative. I'm glad they issue it as the discussion is the important part, I just wish they left the numbers out. In my opinion.

Image
Image
Just a reminder that CSU has improved A LOT in recent years.
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