Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[drezee]

5 majors?? Yuck

[cycloneye]

The numbers include the three that have formed.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-07.pdf

[skyline385]

Interesting how they didn’t change anything at all from the previous forecast

[hurricane2025]

Why would they

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1545062079530418177

[skyline385]

Why would they

Because of changes in the tropics which might have occurred through the last month? Forecasts change all the time especially when the time period between them is a whole month…

[SFLcane]

The numbers include the three that have formed.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-07.pdf

Luis That's a lot of storms.... Your looking at 10 hurricanes and 5 majors to come.

[cycloneye]

Foe me and our Caribbean friends, this is a big concern. 64% probability of a major hurricane in the Caribbean.

[hurricane2025]

Why would they

Because of changes in the tropics which might have occurred through the last month? Forecasts change all the time especially when the time period between them is a whole month…

Nothing has changed, every model still shows active or hyperactive

[zzh]

Models (EC, UMKET, JMA) backed off a little on sst and 200mb U compared to June forecast. But they are more bullish on weaker Caribbean trades.

[skyline385]

Foe me and our Caribbean friends, this is a big concern. 64% probability of a major hurricane in the Caribbean.

If it’s any consolation, FL is at 79% for hurricane and 47% for Major as well (almost double the climo average).

[skyline385]

Why would they

Because of changes in the tropics which might have occurred through the last month? Forecasts change all the time especially when the time period between them is a whole month…

Nothing has changed, every model still shows active or hyperactive

That’s not how forecasts work, it would otherwise be the easiest job in the world.

[hurricane2025]

Because of changes in the tropics which might have occurred through the last month? Forecasts change all the time especially when the time period between them is a whole month…

Nothing has changed, every model still shows active or hyperactive

That’s not how forecasts work, it would otherwise be the easiest job in the world.

2022 technology and the resources they have is bar none!!!

[Cpv17]

Because of changes in the tropics which might have occurred through the last month? Forecasts change all the time especially when the time period between them is a whole month…

Nothing has changed, every model still shows active or hyperactive

That’s not how forecasts work, it would otherwise be the easiest job in the world.

In his defense I doubt they would change their forecast much in just one months time when the writing has been on the wall for an active season for the past few months.

[Cpv17]

5 majors?? Yuck

I actually think their forecast is still on the conservative side. Could be more than 20 named storms if you ask me.

[skyline385]

Nothing has changed, every model still shows active or hyperactive

That’s not how forecasts work, it would otherwise be the easiest job in the world.

In his defense I doubt they would change their forecast much in just one months time when the writing has been on the wall for an active season for the past few months.

Wasn’t expecting major changes, but it is very surprising that absolutely nothing changed all the way down to the storm days.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, let's end the back and forth. The important thing is if you live in the tropical zones anywhere from Guyana to Mexico and up to the U.S cosstline of GOM ,east coast to Canada's coast including the Bahamas and Bermuda, you should be prepared no matter how active or not the peak of the season will be.

[skyline385]

Ok folks, let's end the back and forth. The important thing is if you live in the tropical zones anywhere from Guyana to Mexico and up to the U.S cosstline of GOM ,east coast to Canada including the Bahamas and Bermuda, you should be prepared no matter how active or not the peak of the season will be.

Agreed, I would even go one step ahead and say you should be prepared no matter where you live. It’s going to be an hyperactive season if the forecasts hold, 10 hurricanes and 5 majors are not going to be fun.

[skyline385]

Interesting how so many of the analog years have less ACE than the forecast for this year, 2011 in particular is an intriguing one as it had similar MDR SSTs and a strengthening Nina peaking as forecasted for 2022.

[weeniepatrol]

nothing has changed that would make them lower the numbers. Nothing lol