Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:05 am

CSU
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2021-12.pdf --- December 9 Quantitative forecast --- Between 13-16 named storms

April 7

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-04.pdf --- April 7 seasonal forecast -- 19/9/4

June 2--- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-06.pdf --- 20/10/5

July 7 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-07.pdf --- 20/10/5

August 4 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-08.pdf --- 18/8/4

Two week forecast August 4-17 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-0804.pdf

Two week forecast August 18-31 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-0818.pdf

Two week forecast September 1-14 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-0901.pdf

Two Week forecast September 15-28 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-0915.pdf

Two Week forecast September 19-October 12 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-0929.pdf

Two Week forecast October 13-26 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-1013.pdf

Verification of the 2022 forecast --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-11.pdf


TSR
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... er2022.pdf ---December 10 forecast --- 18/8/3

April 6:

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... pr2022.pdf --- April 6 forecast --- 18/8/4 ACE 138

May 31 --- https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... on2022.pdf --- 18/8/4

July 7 --- https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ly2021.pdf --- 18/9/4 --- ACE 150

August 9 --- https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... st2022.pdf --- 17/8/3 --- ACE 130


NOAA

May 24:

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa- ... ane-season --- 14-21 named storms

August 4: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa- ... ane-season ---14-20 named storms


CrownWeather Services
https://crownweather.com/index.php/disc ... d-march-9/ --- March 9 forecast --- 16/9/3

April 21 --- 21/9/4 ACE: 180

WeatherBell
March 12 forecast --- NS 18-22 / H 6-10 / MH 2-4 / Ace 140-180

June 7 forecast same as March

Accuweather
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... st/1164507 --- March 30 forecast ---16-20 named storms

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... st/1234187 --- August 18 --- 16 named storms

WeatherTiger
June https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/atl ... ok-954?s=r --- Between 16-23 named storms ACE:155

July https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... ricane?s=w --- Between 17-21 named storms --- ACE---164

August https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/wea ... ricane-d83 --- Between 17-20 named storms --- ACE 160

The Weather Channel
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... on-twc-csu --- 20/8/4

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... er-company --- June 16 --- 21/9/4

NCState
https://news.ncsu.edu/2022/04/2022-acti ... ne-season/ --- April 21 --- Between 17-21 named storms

Texas Hurricane Word Press
https://texashurricane.wordpress.com/ --- 14-22 named storms --- ACE--- 130-190

Earth Networks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16QLiumqURc --- May 19 --- 18/8/4

UKMET
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2022 ---18/9/4 --- ACE 176

ECMWF
https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/openchar ... 2206010000 --- June 5 --- 19/11/5

Meteo-France
https://meteofrance.mq/fr/climat/previs ... -pour-2022 --- June 6 --- 18/9 --- ACE 160

.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:35 am

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:37 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Dec 10, 2021 7:54 pm

TSR also begins as every year they do on December and they have 18/8/3.

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9856
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#5 Postby Blown Away » Mon Dec 13, 2021 7:28 am

Image
2001 & 2012 were years TSR referenced following double La Nina's.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#6 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Dec 13, 2021 8:39 am

cycloneye wrote:TSR also begins as every year they do on December and they have 18/8/3.

https://i.imgur.com/yvjL1p1.jpg


Jeez...I wonder when the last time was where the TSR's forecast was that high during December for the upcoming season. I personally cannot recall a time when they were already predicting that many hurricanes and NSs.
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:52 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/ZtvXYFa.jpg
2001 & 2012 were years TSR referenced following double La Nina's.


2001 came after a triple lol.
0 likes   

al78
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 240
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2018 12:20 pm

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#8 Postby al78 » Sat Dec 18, 2021 4:44 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
cycloneye wrote:TSR also begins as every year they do on December and they have 18/8/3.

https://i.imgur.com/yvjL1p1.jpg


Jeez...I wonder when the last time was where the TSR's forecast was that high during December for the upcoming season. I personally cannot recall a time when they were already predicting that many hurricanes and NSs.


2010: https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ec2011.pdf
0 likes   

OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1704
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#9 Postby OuterBanker » Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:16 am

Not sure if the mods would consider these forecast expert, but they are from legitimate local network TV stations.
And they are something to break the ice early.

Btw, they are the same exact same forecast. I guess their affiliates?

https://www.wjcl.com/article/savannah-2 ... /39151803#

https://www.wesh.com/article/wesh-2022- ... /39164302#
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9593
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#10 Postby SFLcane » Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:32 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Not sure if the mods would consider these forecast expert, but they are from legitimate local network TV stations.
And they are something to break the ice early.

Btw, they are the same exact same forecast. I guess their affiliates?

https://www.wjcl.com/article/savannah-2 ... /39151803#

https://www.wesh.com/article/wesh-2022- ... /39164302#


Watch out Florida if they are correct! :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 09, 2022 1:56 pm

CrownWeather is up with the forecast of 16/9/3. Here is graphic and the text is at the first post list.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up

#12 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Mar 09, 2022 2:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:CrownWeather is up with the forecast of 16/9/3. Here is graphic and the text is at the first post list.

https://i.imgur.com/Rvy1h9u.jpg


Wow darn, LA is in the high hazard zone yet again.
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up

#13 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 09, 2022 2:35 pm

One thing that seems odd with that Crown Weather forecast is the named storms to hurricane ratio. With so many weak, short-lived storms being named, the ratio last year was 33% of named storms becoming hurricanes. That would be about 5-6 hurricanes with 16 named storms, or 27 named storms with 9 hurricanes. Of course, I don't think the ratio of named storms being 3 times the number of hurricanes will likely occur. I'm actually thinking lower with hurricane numbers higher with major hurricanes and higher with named storms to take into account all the "shorties".
5 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9593
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up

#14 Postby SFLcane » Wed Mar 09, 2022 3:57 pm

Watch out South Florida! :eek: :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
FireRat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1138
Age: 36
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:38 pm
Location: North Carolina

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up

#15 Postby FireRat » Wed Mar 09, 2022 5:15 pm

cycloneye wrote:CrownWeather is up with the forecast of 16/9/3. Here is graphic and the text is at the first post list.

https://i.imgur.com/Rvy1h9u.jpg


Holy cow. This is close to my own personal feelings for 2022, not a good sign to see so many in the yellow and red. Looks like yet another very active and impactful season is on the way!
0 likes   
Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22

User avatar
cajungal
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2198
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 9:34 pm
Location: Schriever, Louisiana (60 miles southwest of New Orleans)

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up

#16 Postby cajungal » Wed Mar 09, 2022 5:33 pm

I see that SE Louisiana is in the red again. Finally got new roof last month. But still need to do the rest of the interior of the house. So praying for no more
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up

#17 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:45 pm

cajungal wrote:I see that SE Louisiana is in the red again. Finally got new roof last month. But still need to do the rest of the interior of the house. So praying for no more


I wouldn't get too excited about such landfall predictions. They're basically guesses based on where storms made landfall based on conditions that exist pre-season and (sometimes bad) predictions of what will be going on by Aug/Sep. It's particularly difficult to predict Gulf activity a long way out. Klotzbach and I have talked about this a number of times. We can kind of get a feel of how the MDR might be, but the Gulf is a different animal. I'll be seeing Phil at the NTWC in S. Padre in early April then at the NHC the following week.

Even if activity is above normal this year (seems likely), the Gulf could be quiet if the MDR is more active (early recurves).
5 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up

#18 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Mar 10, 2022 9:11 am

wxman57 wrote:
cajungal wrote:I see that SE Louisiana is in the red again. Finally got new roof last month. But still need to do the rest of the interior of the house. So praying for no more


I wouldn't get too excited about such landfall predictions. They're basically guesses based on where storms made landfall based on conditions that exist pre-season and (sometimes bad) predictions of what will be going on by Aug/Sep. It's particularly difficult to predict Gulf activity a long way out. Klotzbach and I have talked about this a number of times. We can kind of get a feel of how the MDR might be, but the Gulf is a different animal. I'll be seeing Phil at the NTWC in S. Padre in early April then at the NHC the following week.

Even if activity is above normal this year (seems likely), the Gulf could be quiet if the MDR is more active (early recurves).


Just curious, but what factors exactly do these sorts of forecasts base their landfall risk zones on? From my understanding, isn't it extraordinarily early to tell anything in terms of land impacts?
1 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up

#19 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Mar 10, 2022 2:53 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
cajungal wrote:I see that SE Louisiana is in the red again. Finally got new roof last month. But still need to do the rest of the interior of the house. So praying for no more


I wouldn't get too excited about such landfall predictions. They're basically guesses based on where storms made landfall based on conditions that exist pre-season and (sometimes bad) predictions of what will be going on by Aug/Sep. It's particularly difficult to predict Gulf activity a long way out. Klotzbach and I have talked about this a number of times. We can kind of get a feel of how the MDR might be, but the Gulf is a different animal. I'll be seeing Phil at the NTWC in S. Padre in early April then at the NHC the following week.

Even if activity is above normal this year (seems likely), the Gulf could be quiet if the MDR is more active (early recurves).


Just curious, but what factors exactly do these sorts of forecasts base their landfall risk zones on? From my understanding, isn't it extraordinarily early to tell anything in terms of land impacts?


They probably use a combination of NAO, ITCZ latitude, and MDR-heaviness.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#20 Postby wxman57 » Sat Mar 12, 2022 12:38 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Not sure if the mods would consider these forecast expert, but they are from legitimate local network TV stations.
And they are something to break the ice early.

Btw, they are the same exact same forecast. I guess their affiliates?

https://www.wjcl.com/article/savannah-2 ... /39151803#

https://www.wesh.com/article/wesh-2022- ... /39164302#


Looks like BS, to me. Predicting exact dates when lows will form 8 months out?
3 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: kevin, SteveM and 59 guests