Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#61 Postby skyline385 » Wed Apr 13, 2022 12:41 am

Don't see Andy's analysis based on UKMET's seasonal forecast shared here so gonna post it, seems to agree with his EURO seasonal forecast analysis and the general expectation that the MDR might be a bit tamed this year.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1513501434469302277


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#62 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Apr 13, 2022 4:48 am

SFLcane wrote:Yeah some TS but no hurricanes. Sorry just Doesn't scream huge Florida year to me. Well see

I tend to agree with you. Strong hurricanes tended to avoid peninsular Florida during CIC’s analogs, which heavily favour Gulf and OTS impacts (déjà vu 2016–21):

Image

However, the actual outcome may well be different from that which CIC’s analogs indicate. Peninsular Florida has been quite fortunate for the most part.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#63 Postby toad strangler » Wed Apr 13, 2022 6:19 am

Talking tracks this far out is fools gold. CSU said it loud and clear last week. Do not in any way shape or form interpret tracks based off chosen analog years. It's NOT what they are for. At all.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Tropical Storm Risk forecast is up=18/8/4 ACE:138

#64 Postby al78 » Wed Apr 13, 2022 6:47 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
cycloneye wrote:TSR is up and has 18/8/4 with ACE of 138.

https://i.imgur.com/SJ87rLq.jpg


Is this the most active April TSR released in recent years?


Yes, the most active in terms of ACE index since 2010. Bear in mind we had a run of years where the climatological parameters we use looked mediocre to unfavourable at this time of year, so there were many consecutive years of below-average forecasts.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#65 Postby al78 » Wed Apr 13, 2022 6:50 am

skyline385 wrote:Don't see Andy's analysis based on UKMET's seasonal forecast shared here so gonna post it, seems to agree with his EURO seasonal forecast analysis and the general expectation that the MDR might be a bit tamed this year.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1513501434469302277?s=20&t=0wIAAaVHpR8kcVtUCnwQwg


If the April-May NAO index becomes negative, that will feed back onto a warmer MDR in the summer. Currently it is near neutral.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#66 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Apr 13, 2022 7:31 am

toad strangler wrote:Talking tracks this far out is fools gold. CSU said it loud and clear last week. Do not in any way shape or form interpret tracks based off chosen analog years. It's NOT what they are for. At all.


Exactly. Wait, since when were analog years even used for storm track forecasting in a future season?

If it was that easy, then I'd have to assume that there would be more public focus on such, but there isn't. Also, it's the local steering patterns that are highly dynamic and unique to an individual season that dictates a season's storm tracks; no two seasons are carbon copies of one another.

I honestly don't see how, for instance, the tracks of 2008's, 2019's, and 2020's storms could be precisely used to predict 2022 tracks, other than the fact that several of those seasons featured intense W Atlantic activity or featured several OTS recurving storms?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Tropical Storm Risk forecast is up=18/8/4 ACE:138

#67 Postby SFLcane » Wed Apr 13, 2022 7:57 am

cycloneye wrote:Graphic of JB forecast that is between 18-22 named storms. What the numbers at graphic mean in below twits.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1512785708729184256

https://i.imgur.com/9PbtsEX.jpg


2003 isn't a good analog.That was weakly +ENSO but warmer Atlantic. :roll:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#68 Postby skyline385 » Wed Apr 13, 2022 11:21 am

al78 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Don't see Andy's analysis based on UKMET's seasonal forecast shared here so gonna post it, seems to agree with his EURO seasonal forecast analysis and the general expectation that the MDR might be a bit tamed this year.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1513501434469302277?s=20&t=0wIAAaVHpR8kcVtUCnwQwg


If the April-May NAO index becomes negative, that will feed back onto a warmer MDR in the summer. Currently it is near neutral.


well the GEFS ensemble mean is pointing towards a neutral NAO for the next 14 days. However, the standard deviation is high towards the positive members compared to the negative members.

And looking at the extended forecast of the UKMET which Andy was quoting, the pressure differential for May-July between the Azores high and Icelandic low does look to be higher than the average which would suggest a +NAO

Image

The precipitation maps of the same forecast also seem to support this with North Europe seeing a higher precipitation than normal.

Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#69 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Apr 14, 2022 5:23 am

skyline385 wrote:
al78 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Don't see Andy's analysis based on UKMET's seasonal forecast shared here so gonna post it, seems to agree with his EURO seasonal forecast analysis and the general expectation that the MDR might be a bit tamed this year.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1513501434469302277?s=20&t=0wIAAaVHpR8kcVtUCnwQwg


If the April-May NAO index becomes negative, that will feed back onto a warmer MDR in the summer. Currently it is near neutral.


well the GEFS ensemble mean is pointing towards a neutral NAO for the next 14 days. However, the standard deviation is high towards the positive members compared to the negative members.

And looking at the extended forecast of the UKMET which Andy was quoting, the pressure differential for May-July between the Azores high and Icelandic low does look to be higher than the average which would suggest a +NAO

https://i.imgur.com/JuiNKa1.png

The precipitation maps of the same forecast also seem to support this with North Europe seeing a higher precipitation than normal.

https://i.imgur.com/wd7PxvP.png

Those graphics actually indicate lower-than-average MSLP near the Cabo Verde islands, which would translate into weaker trades to the south, over the MDR.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Joe Bastardi=18-22 named storms / Graphic on page 3

#70 Postby Blown Away » Thu Apr 14, 2022 7:05 am

SFLcane wrote:
jconsor wrote:Climate Impact Company Forecast is out:

https://climateimpactcompany.com/north- ... atology-3/

The Climate Impact Company 2022 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season forecast is based on a new forecast methodology. The methodology accounts for activity, intensity and location. The activity forecast indicates 19 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes for the 2022 season. The activity forecast rank is in the top ten highest from the 1950-2021 climatology. The ACE index forecast which identifies the intensity of the season is 135 ranking 20th most intense in the 1950-2021 climatology. The location forecast favors the most active and intense zone for tropical cyclones across Florida and just-off the U.S. East Coast. Florida is a primary landfall target for 2022 tropical cyclones. The forecast is based on a multivariate ENSO index analog combined with analogs for the North Atlantic SSTA pattern by combining both the AMO and TNA regimes.

Their analog years (based on expected atmospheric ENSO response i.e. MEI, and expected Atlantic SST including AMO and TNA) are 2000, 2001, 2008, 2012, 2019, 2020.


Don't think there's a single FL hurricane landfall in those analogs actually. there's really no scientific basis for this.


Nearly all the hurricanes that ever impact the Florida Peninsula didn't become a hurricane before @20N/60W, regardless of El Nino, La Nina, or Neutral. When the MDR SST's are a bit cooler than average the TW's tend to move farther W before gaining latitude and typically the SST's increase in the SW Atlantic regardless of ENSO resulting in TW's developing which increases landfalls in Caribbean, Bahamas, and CONUS.

Since 2000 the Florida Peninsula tip (E to W from Lake O & south to Keys) has experienced 4 Major hurricanes, Cat 2, Cat 1, 6 TS and 2 Major hurricanes brushes. No other narrow area like the Florida Peninsula tip in the CONUS has had this much activity.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#71 Postby tolakram » Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:35 am

I think a lot of this discussion should be in the indicators thread now. Thanks!
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#72 Postby aspen » Fri Apr 15, 2022 11:49 am

UA and TWC have posted their outlooks. I can’t post a link to TWC’s outlook because it keeps redirecting me to the app, but they’re predicting 20/8/4. UA has gone far below everyone else with 14/7/3 and 129 ACE.

https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/f ... recast.pdf
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#73 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Apr 15, 2022 12:20 pm

aspen wrote:UA and TWC have posted their outlooks. I can’t post a link to TWC’s outlook because it keeps redirecting me to the app, but they’re predicting 20/8/4. UA has gone far below everyone else with 14/7/3 and 129 ACE.

https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/f ... recast.pdf


Hmm, I wonder what exactly influenced UA's decision; last time they put out an April forecast (2021, that is), they were calling for 18/8/4 (so not much different from 7/3 although the number of storms is much lower; are they ignoring "shorties" perhaps?)
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#74 Postby ouragans » Fri Apr 15, 2022 3:08 pm

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Weather Channel is up=20/8/4

#75 Postby aspen » Thu Apr 21, 2022 5:16 am

NCSU has released their outlook, calling for a hyperactive and possibly list-exhausting season.
https://news.ncsu.edu/2022/04/2022-acti ... ne-season/
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Weather Channel is up=20/8/4

#76 Postby SFLcane » Thu Apr 21, 2022 6:58 am

aspen wrote:NCSU has released their outlook, calling for a hyperactive and possibly list-exhausting season.
https://news.ncsu.edu/2022/04/2022-acti ... ne-season/


Up to 9 hurricanes :eek:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Weather Channel is up=20/8/4

#77 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:35 am

aspen wrote:NCSU has released their outlook, calling for a hyperactive and possibly list-exhausting season.
https://news.ncsu.edu/2022/04/2022-acti ... ne-season/


And once again, they are hinting at the possibility that the Gulf will see heightened activity. You know, at this point, my default setting is to expect to see a Cat 4+ CONUS landfall sometime in August in the Gulf. :double:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#78 Postby skyline385 » Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:32 am

SFLcane wrote:
aspen wrote:NCSU has released their outlook, calling for a hyperactive and possibly list-exhausting season.
https://news.ncsu.edu/2022/04/2022-acti ... ne-season/


Up to 9 hurricanes :eek:

Was looking at previous years forecasts and it seems NCSU is consistently the most bullish from all of the pre-seasonal forecasts. Not saying it won't happen but something to keep in mind. They predicted 7-9 hurricanes in 2021 as well.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#79 Postby aspen » Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:21 am

skyline385 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
aspen wrote:NCSU has released their outlook, calling for a hyperactive and possibly list-exhausting season.
https://news.ncsu.edu/2022/04/2022-acti ... ne-season/


Up to 9 hurricanes :eek:

Was looking at previous years forecasts and it seems NCSU is consistently the most bullish from all of the pre-seasonal forecasts. Not saying it won't happen but something to keep in mind. They predicted 7-9 hurricanes in 2021 as well.

NCSU’s pre-season forecast for 2021 was 15-18 NS, 7-9H, and 2-3 MH. Their hurricane prediction was the only part they over-estimated, but even at that, their low end estimate ended up being right; the rest were too low. I’d say their prediction for this year is quite reasonable because its range includes another shortie-dominated season like 2021.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#80 Postby wxman57 » Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:25 am

I was talking with Phil Klotzbach the other day. New data is even more bullish on seasonal activity, indicating ACE of 170-190. One think to look for is whether the current drought in TX/LA continues into July. That would be good for people there, as hurricane activity may shift east of Louisiana this year.
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