2022 WPAC Season

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mrbagyo
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#181 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Nov 05, 2022 3:27 am

00z GFS is fantasizing about the area of disorganized convection south of the Hawaiian islands.
ECMWF and CMC also showing some weak vorticity.
Something to keep an eye on.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#182 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Nov 09, 2022 8:42 am

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#183 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Nov 20, 2022 3:10 pm

Euro showing tropical development by end of November, while GFS has it already as Pakhar at the same timeframe.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#184 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 21, 2022 11:57 am

12z GFS has a long traking SuperTyphoon moving just south of Guam and then arrives at Luzon.

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#185 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Nov 21, 2022 2:50 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z GFS has a long traking SuperTyphoon moving just south of Guam and then arrives at Luzon.

https://i.imgur.com/O0g6ihl.gif

ECMWF 12Z keeps it on a quick, flat track.
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Multi 12Z, the GFS plot here is presumably from the GFSV16 which shows a more south track
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#186 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Nov 21, 2022 2:58 pm

12Z ensembles
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#187 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Nov 21, 2022 8:19 pm

I'm feeling a Rai redux, hopefully not because even after a year some areas in the Visayas and Mindanao have not yet fully recovered, and then there was Nalgae a month ago that also brought widespread damages in the region.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#188 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Nov 21, 2022 8:34 pm

dexterlabio wrote:I'm feeling a Rai redux, hopefully not because even after a year some areas in the Visayas and Mindanao have not yet fully recovered, and then there was Nalgae a month ago that also brought widespread damages in the region.

I think the same but it could be much stronger, GFS starts to ramp this up near 160E while it was forming Rai between 140-150E
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#189 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Nov 22, 2022 6:43 am

A Rai redux is the last thing we'd like to see. Some power lines especially in Mactan are a mess and some structures haven't been fixed. Same thing in CARAGA and other provinces...
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#190 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 22, 2022 3:05 pm

After the eye catching runs from the GFS it has now backed off :D while the Euro remains unfazed for significant tropical development but ensembles seem to say otherwise
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#191 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 03, 2022 6:09 am

After the failed 90W, GFS is BS'ng again in 5 days. There's some Euro ensemble support but the recent failure it too had a decent ensemble support and the operational was developing it. This time I will only believe it when it happens :roll:
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#192 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 03, 2022 9:02 am

Hayabusa wrote:After the failed 90W, GFS is BS'ng again in 5 days. There's some Euro ensemble support but the recent failure it too had a decent ensemble support and the operational was developing it. This time I will only believe it when it happens :roll:


Is it time to switch our focus to SHEM? WPAC and the rest of NHEM is just dead this past few weeks
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#193 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Dec 03, 2022 12:06 pm

I guess we need to wait for the other models to pick it up as well.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#194 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Dec 04, 2022 1:48 pm

I'm not sure if it's NCEP bias or not. There should be some transition towards Neutral ENSO soon. So it should be expected that there will be anomalous westerlies/rising motion in the WPAC that should trigger a STY. We'll see. It's been a somewhat odd year.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#195 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Dec 06, 2022 4:07 am

Kingarabian wrote:I'm not sure if it's NCEP bias or not. There should be some transition towards Neutral ENSO soon. So it should be expected that there will be anomalous westerlies/rising motion in the WPAC that should trigger a STY. We'll see. It's been a somewhat odd year.


maybe that will happen early 2023?
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#196 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Dec 07, 2022 7:15 am

Kingarabian wrote:I'm not sure if it's NCEP bias or not. There should be some transition towards Neutral ENSO soon. So it should be expected that there will be anomalous westerlies/rising motion in the WPAC that should trigger a STY. We'll see. It's been a somewhat odd year.

It happened with the mighty Surigae, that GFS even modeled an equatorial crossover :lol: but it didn't flip the switch. If something's like that happening soon, it should be as mighty as Surigae.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#197 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Dec 11, 2022 10:39 pm

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#198 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:02 pm

Could 2022 still output one last storm? MJO forecast moving in 3rd week of December...
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#199 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Sep 01, 2023 4:01 pm

Best track released, Hinnamor and Noru got upgraded to 145 knots
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/product ... wp2022.zip
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#200 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri Sep 01, 2023 4:54 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Best track released, Hinnamor and Noru got upgraded to 145 knots
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/product ... wp2022.zip
https://i.imgur.com/79GLhnF.png

:yayaya: :na:
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