2022 WPAC Season

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styzeb
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#101 Postby styzeb » Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:31 am

:uarrow: Storms in that area are more promising to become intense than those in the South China Sea. So a major is indeed possible.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#102 Postby aspen » Sun Jul 03, 2022 5:44 pm

The GFS and CMC develop a TC near the Marianas either late this week or this upcoming weekend. You can probably guess what each model does with it.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#103 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 03, 2022 6:07 pm

:uarrow: GFS genesis looks really spontaneous to me. ECMWF doesn’t have a disturbance even.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#104 Postby zzh » Sun Jul 03, 2022 6:40 pm

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EC has it sheared under tutt. GFS is just being GFS.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#105 Postby zzh » Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:04 pm

TSR forecast is out. 23/13/7 ace 217.
The June trade wind anomaly is currently -1.78 ms-1 which is the fifth most negative anomaly since 1965.

When the June trade wind anomaly is in the lowest quartile (< -1.12 ms-1), the mean NW Pacific ACE index is 216.

2022 has the 5th strongest trades since 1965 :D, (top 3 is 2010, 1998, 2010).
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#106 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:11 pm

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#107 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Jul 09, 2022 5:32 am

It's been a boring first week of July, only a struggling Aere formed. The MJO passage was at its strongest 4 days ago and it spawned 99W and 90W but current model forecasts are meh. I'd rather either of them not named and become a struggling storm so that Songda's high intensity record won't be ruined.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#108 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jul 14, 2022 11:13 pm

2021:
Image

2022:
Image

As you can see here, 2021 was much more active early on than this year. In fact, there's a chance that July could end without a NS formation there since models aren't really excited on development there it seems; either this is going to be a very backloaded typhoon season, or conditions there are genuinely just not favorable this season. Who knows
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#109 Postby Teban54 » Fri Jul 15, 2022 12:21 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:2021:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/to7lrh6iq72p1lmptdv4a93v3c5la5p.png

2022:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/357am82t20ti22hpaj8ji82kr7vxref.png

As you can see here, 2021 was much more active early on than this year. In fact, there's a chance that July could end without a NS formation there since models aren't really excited on development there it seems; either this is going to be a very backloaded typhoon season, or conditions there are genuinely just not favorable this season. Who knows

Imagine if this year's EPAC is heavily frontloaded while WPAC is heavily backloaded :lol:
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#110 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Jul 23, 2022 5:43 am

A very dull July with currently only one storm formed that struggled and now GFS is developing late July storms but it doesn't get me that excited. They would form in high latitude means less chance of becoming exceptionally intense.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#111 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jul 25, 2022 2:29 pm

Ok, does anybody have any idea on when activity in the WPAC will pick up? This dead quiet is so atypical of the basin if I am not mistaken; how many other recorded years had no July NSs?
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#112 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Mon Jul 25, 2022 9:24 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Ok, does anybody have any idea on when activity in the WPAC will pick up? This dead quiet is so atypical of the basin if I am not mistaken; how many other recorded years had no July NSs?


2020 had no July named storms. Same pattern continues, La Nina, rising air stuck over maritime continent - dead Wpac. Might squeeze in a weak TS near Kyushu before month's end. ACE currently 33% of what it should be.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#113 Postby zzh » Mon Jul 25, 2022 10:40 pm

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2020 had sinking air over WPAC in July. This year is very different. It is truly weird to see a dead WPAC when intra-seasonal forcing is favorable.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#114 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:46 pm

Hmmm I must have been interpreting the VP anomaly charts incorrectly. Regardless a sickness has pervaded the basin since 2020, it's very interesting to watch.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#115 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Jul 26, 2022 12:11 am

zzh wrote:
2020 had sinking air over WPAC in July. This year is very different. It is truly weird to see a dead WPAC when intra-seasonal forcing is favorable.


yeah, I'm clueless. Not sure what is going on over there. It's been bizarre. WPAC always wakes up eventually though
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#116 Postby NCSUFan_WX » Tue Jul 26, 2022 5:43 am

GFS and ECMWF hinting at another monsoon gyre set-up similar to In-Fa last year. Doesn't look like anything too significant will come out of 93W or P75W (JTWC 2-week outlook) at this time, but the tug and pull between the 2 systems will be interesting to watch.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#117 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jul 28, 2022 2:39 pm

Oh finally, a storm to track!
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#118 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Jul 30, 2022 5:18 am

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#119 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:41 am

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#120 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 07, 2022 11:49 am

Decent chance the WPAC gets some serious ACE courtesy of the CPAC in about 2 weeks.
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