2022 WPAC Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#21 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Apr 05, 2022 7:07 am

Foxfires wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: With a La Nina and a +AMO favoring rising motion over the Atlantic, an above average season was never really on the table to begin with.


On that topic, I'm curious, is an above average WPAC season (by most measurements of activity instead of like, one (named storms, typhoons, super typhoons, ACE)) during a La Nina possible?


1996, but that was arguably offset by having just 1 legit Category 5. 1989 too.
0 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#22 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Apr 05, 2022 7:19 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Foxfires wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: With a La Nina and a +AMO favoring rising motion over the Atlantic, an above average season was never really on the table to begin with.


On that topic, I'm curious, is an above average WPAC season (by most measurements of activity instead of like, one (named storms, typhoons, super typhoons, ACE)) during a La Nina possible?


1996, but that was arguably offset by having just 1 legit Category 5. 1989 too.


Although in 1996 and 1989, La Niña officially ended in Spring. I suppose the negative impacts of La Niña no longer existed during the heart of the typhoon season (June to November) that it allowed those years to be average or above-average.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#23 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Apr 05, 2022 7:55 pm

dexterlabio wrote:GFS is still showing a TC originating from SCS tracking eastward, towards 95W. It's been a while since we last saw this kind of TC forming in the SCS then tracking from west to east.


it's starting to take shape

Image
Image
Image
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

Foxfires
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 146
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:50 pm

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#24 Postby Foxfires » Wed Apr 06, 2022 3:08 am

dexterlabio wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Foxfires wrote:
On that topic, I'm curious, is an above average WPAC season (by most measurements of activity instead of like, one (named storms, typhoons, super typhoons, ACE)) during a La Nina possible?


1996, but that was arguably offset by having just 1 legit Category 5. 1989 too.


Although in 1996 and 1989, La Niña officially ended in Spring. I suppose the negative impacts of La Niña no longer existed during the heart of the typhoon season (June to November) that it allowed those years to be average or above-average.


I suppose they were still technically negative ENSO for the entirety of those years on the ONI according to NOAA, but yes, La Nina only existed throughout a minority of both years.

Anyway, I came across a few lists of El Nino and La Nina years by NOAA, BoM, and the JMA and I guess I answered my own question. At least one of the La Nina years was an active WPAC year: 1971 (full La Nina year)

Image

ACE at 380 units
(Season probably needs reanalysis tho)

Will this happen this year? Probably not, considering most La Nina years don't sport an active WPAC. Not sure what exactly happened that year to spur so much activity in a -ENSO.
1 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#25 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Apr 06, 2022 3:22 am

Foxfires wrote:
I suppose they were still technically negative ENSO for the entirety of those years on the ONI according to NOAA, but yes, La Nina only existed throughout a minority of both years.

Anyway, I came across a few lists of El Nino and La Nina years by NOAA, BoM, and the JMA and I guess I answered my own question. At least one of the La Nina years was an active WPAC year: 1971 (full La Nina year)

https://i.imgur.com/QupNv8T.png

ACE at 380 units
(Season probably needs reanalysis tho)

Will this happen this year? Probably not, considering most La Nina years don't sport an active WPAC. Not sure what exactly happened that year to spur so much activity in a -ENSO.


Which is what makes the ENSO-TC activity correlation very interesting. I'd be happy to read any research that investigates the cause of that. Another interesting puzzle to solve is how come the 2009 WPAC season was only below-average when that year featured a moderate-to-strong El Niño.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#26 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Apr 06, 2022 3:23 am

mrbagyo wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:GFS is still showing a TC originating from SCS tracking eastward, towards 95W. It's been a while since we last saw this kind of TC forming in the SCS then tracking from west to east.


it's starting to take shape

https://i.imgur.com/uychoeG.gif
https://i.imgur.com/ZTYwHrC.gif
https://i.imgur.com/BnDwhj5.gif


So far only CMC and GFS see it.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#27 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Apr 06, 2022 3:26 am

:uarrow: -AMO feels like the easiest scapegoat re: 1971 but JTWC incompetence could also be an underrated factor that could cause ACE from that year to be inflated.
2 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#28 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Apr 06, 2022 3:45 am

dexterlabio wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:GFS is still showing a TC originating from SCS tracking eastward, towards 95W. It's been a while since we last saw this kind of TC forming in the SCS then tracking from west to east.


it's starting to take shape

https://i.imgur.com/uychoeG.gif
https://i.imgur.com/ZTYwHrC.gif
https://i.imgur.com/BnDwhj5.gif


So far only CMC and GFS see it.


Euro was showing that one 3 days ago but has since backed off.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#29 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Apr 11, 2022 3:09 am

2022 joins the other 8 seasons 1951, 1956, 1971, 1976, 1981, 1997, 1999, 2014 for multiple storms that became a TS in the month of April.
Median ACE using those seasons (excluding 1951, 1956) = 289.8585
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#30 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Apr 13, 2022 12:21 am

Hayabusa wrote:2022 joins the other 8 seasons 1951, 1956, 1971, 1976, 1981, 1997, 1999, 2014 for multiple storms that became a TS in the month of April.
Median ACE using those seasons (excluding 1951, 1956) = 289.8585



I think removing 1997 and 2014 from that list to compute for the median ACE should give a quite reasonable prediction for 2022.

Personally, considering the current ENSO state and the record of third-year La Niña/cold ENSO events in the past, the good analog years are 1976, 1985, and maybe 2000.

Although...I couldn't help but think if there will be a sudden turn of events ENSO-wise like in 2006 and a surprise El Niño pops up when the Northern Hemisphere transitions to Fall. We'll never know, but when that happens then 2022 should be more active than 2020 and 2021.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#31 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:42 am

dexterlabio wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:2022 joins the other 8 seasons 1951, 1956, 1971, 1976, 1981, 1997, 1999, 2014 for multiple storms that became a TS in the month of April.
Median ACE using those seasons (excluding 1951, 1956) = 289.8585



I think removing 1997 and 2014 from that list to compute for the median ACE should give a quite reasonable prediction for 2022.

Personally, considering the current ENSO state and the record of third-year La Niña/cold ENSO events in the past, the good analog years are 1976, 1985, and maybe 2000.

Although...I couldn't help but think if there will be a sudden turn of events ENSO-wise like in 2006 and a surprise El Niño pops up when the Northern Hemisphere transitions to Fall. We'll never know, but when that happens then 2022 should be more active than 2020 and 2021.


I got a result of 264.5215, still an ACE that looks like (less than 20 difference) 1979, 1984, 1993, 1995, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2016 (the closest one), and 2019. 2021's ACE according to CSU was 209.6, I still think 2022's ACE would be higher than 2021 even if activity is below average on the climate norm.
1 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#32 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 16, 2022 12:38 am

A GFS trick or something would form late April? :D
Image

If another TS forms in April, 2022 would join 1971 and 1999 as the seasons with the most April storms (TS minimum), a total of 3 storms.
1971 had a large ACE value of 371 while 1999 had an abysmal value of 109
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#33 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Apr 16, 2022 1:04 am

Hayabusa wrote:A GFS trick or something would form late April? :D
https://i.imgur.com/3AfzFMC.png

If another TS forms in April, 2022 would join 1971 and 1999 as the seasons with the most April storms (TS minimum), a total of 3 storms.
1971 had a large ACE value of 371 while 1999 had an abysmal value of 109


GFS tends to do this anytime MJO is active over the basin regardless of what position MJO is forecast to be in by then.
1 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#34 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Apr 16, 2022 7:24 am

Hayabusa wrote:A GFS trick or something would form late April? :D
https://i.imgur.com/3AfzFMC.png

If another TS forms in April, 2022 would join 1971 and 1999 as the seasons with the most April storms (TS minimum), a total of 3 storms.
1971 had a large ACE value of 371 while 1999 had an abysmal value of 109


Seems like a recycle of its solution 2 weeks ago. :lol:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2396
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#35 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Apr 16, 2022 8:00 pm

Somehow unrelated but I would like to share this one here.
The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) began conducting reconnaissance aircraft missions into TCs over the South China Sea in 2011. According to this paper, HKO has sampled a total of 38 systems as of 2020, few of which even penetrated the eye/eyewall of typhoons.

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/d ... 2/wea.4154
Image
3 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#36 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Apr 19, 2022 12:32 am

GFS on crack again?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15423
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#37 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 19, 2022 12:37 am

mrbagyo wrote:GFS on crack again?

Probably. But has some CMC support.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#38 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Apr 19, 2022 1:18 am

Kingarabian wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:GFS on crack again?

Probably. But has some CMC support.


yeah saw CMC's output last night.
weird April
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#39 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Apr 19, 2022 2:50 am

No operational development from the Euro yet but there are ensemble hints.
Image
GFS
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15423
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#40 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 19, 2022 2:52 am

Hayabusa wrote:No operational development from the Euro yet but there are ensemble hints.
https://i.imgur.com/kCZw84Y.png
GFS

Though OP Euro has a defined area of low pressure to match the GFS and CMC.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: duilaslol, Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot] and 46 guests