2022 WPAC Season

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Hayabusa
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#41 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Apr 19, 2022 3:18 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:No operational development from the Euro yet but there are ensemble hints.
https://i.imgur.com/kCZw84Y.png
GFS

Though OP Euro has a defined area of low pressure to match the GFS and CMC.

Yeah I like seeing it in sim ir
Image
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#42 Postby Hurricane2021 » Tue Apr 19, 2022 10:05 am

Typhoon Chaba (2004) (T0416, 19W) – A strong Category 5 super typhoon that devastated Japan in 2004.
Typhoon Chaba (2010) (T1014, 16W, Katring) – a Category 4 typhoon that approached Japan.
Typhoon Chaba (2016) (T1618, 21W, Igme) – A Category 5 super typhoon that affected South Korea and Japan in October 2016.


In the list of names for typhoons, the next name is CHABA.

All 3 typhoons named "Chaba" were very strong typhoons, with 2 of them being Category 5 typhoons

If the GFS predictions are right, we will have another Category 5 typhoon with this name
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#43 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 19, 2022 9:52 pm

GFS continues to be very bullish. CMC remains weak but with some development. Euro has the disturbance weak and in the South China sea.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#44 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Apr 19, 2022 11:54 pm

Hurricane2021 wrote:
Typhoon Chaba (2004) (T0416, 19W) – A strong Category 5 super typhoon that devastated Japan in 2004.
Typhoon Chaba (2010) (T1014, 16W, Katring) – a Category 4 typhoon that approached Japan.
Typhoon Chaba (2016) (T1618, 21W, Igme) – A Category 5 super typhoon that affected South Korea and Japan in October 2016.


In the list of names for typhoons, the next name is CHABA.

All 3 typhoons named "Chaba" were very strong typhoons, with 2 of them being Category 5 typhoons

If the GFS predictions are right, we will have another Category 5 typhoon with this name


It's a hard challenge (to its consistent high intensity record) because it would form in the month of April, not to mention it's unprecedented that a cat 5 in April occurring again in a consecutive season 8-) . Possible Chaba is a month cross over too and it is also interesting if it would be a cat 5 in both months like Maysak. Only 6 typhoons on record were cat 5 in multiple months, the last one was Jebi.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#45 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Apr 20, 2022 12:26 am

00z GFS very cracky. Three systems by the end of its run. 00z CMC much more bullish. Starts development in 4-5 days.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#46 Postby Nancy Smar » Wed Apr 20, 2022 11:09 am

GENESIS001, WP, W, , , , , 71, 2022, DB, O, 2022042712, 9999999999, , 001, , , , GENESIS, , WP712022
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#47 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Apr 21, 2022 4:17 am

Well the GFS is on a good start this season. GFS/CMC/Euro now show 2 separate systems within the next 10 days. The models are not in agreement on the intensities but looks like there will be two areas to monitor.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#48 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Apr 21, 2022 6:02 am

Recent GFS runs looks like we're back to the runs of pre-Megi, Malakas i.e. developing multiple TCs but I still can't lean on it, there's no enhanced MJO like it did before.
Image
Although there is some low pressure in the forecast, Euro still has yet to show obvious TC development. However if GFS is right again, Chaba and Aere would exist simultaneously and would be unprecedented if Aere could be named before May, that would make 2022 having the most April storms on record.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#49 Postby Foxfires » Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:38 am

Hayabusa wrote:
Hurricane2021 wrote:
Typhoon Chaba (2004) (T0416, 19W) – A strong Category 5 super typhoon that devastated Japan in 2004.
Typhoon Chaba (2010) (T1014, 16W, Katring) – a Category 4 typhoon that approached Japan.
Typhoon Chaba (2016) (T1618, 21W, Igme) – A Category 5 super typhoon that affected South Korea and Japan in October 2016.


In the list of names for typhoons, the next name is CHABA.

All 3 typhoons named "Chaba" were very strong typhoons, with 2 of them being Category 5 typhoons

If the GFS predictions are right, we will have another Category 5 typhoon with this name


It's a hard challenge (to its consistent high intensity record) because it would form in the month of April, not to mention it's unprecedented that a cat 5 in April occurring again in a consecutive season 8-) . Possible Chaba is a month cross over too and it is also interesting if it would be a cat 5 in both months like Maysak. Only 6 typhoons on record were cat 5 in multiple months, the last one was Jebi.


I'm curious, which storms were those 6 double-month category 5 typhoons?
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#50 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:08 am

Foxfires wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:
Hurricane2021 wrote:
Typhoon Chaba (2004) (T0416, 19W) – A strong Category 5 super typhoon that devastated Japan in 2004.
Typhoon Chaba (2010) (T1014, 16W, Katring) – a Category 4 typhoon that approached Japan.
Typhoon Chaba (2016) (T1618, 21W, Igme) – A Category 5 super typhoon that affected South Korea and Japan in October 2016.


In the list of names for typhoons, the next name is CHABA.

All 3 typhoons named "Chaba" were very strong typhoons, with 2 of them being Category 5 typhoons

If the GFS predictions are right, we will have another Category 5 typhoon with this name


It's a hard challenge (to its consistent high intensity record) because it would form in the month of April, not to mention it's unprecedented that a cat 5 in April occurring again in a consecutive season 8-) . Possible Chaba is a month cross over too and it is also interesting if it would be a cat 5 in both months like Maysak. Only 6 typhoons on record were cat 5 in multiple months, the last one was Jebi.


I'm curious, which storms were those 6 double-month category 5 typhoons?

Based on JTWC best track:
Typhoon Hester 1952 Dec-Jan
Typhoon Kit 1953 June-July
Typhoon Wanda 1956 July-Aug
Typhoon Bess 1965 Sept-Oct
Typhoon Maysak 2015 Mar-April
Typhoon Jebi 2018 Aug-Sept
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#51 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Apr 21, 2022 5:10 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Recent GFS runs looks like we're back to the runs of pre-Megi, Malakas i.e. developing multiple TCs but I still can't lean on it, there's no enhanced MJO like it did before.
https://i.imgur.com/bysceDF.png
Although there is some low pressure in the forecast, Euro still has yet to show obvious TC development. However if GFS is right again, Chaba and Aere would exist simultaneously and would be unprecedented if Aere could be named before May, that would make 2022 having the most April storms on record.

Yeah the GFS is showing equatorial westerlies in the WPAC. near 130E. Don't know where or how it's building this rising motion in the basin with the MJO far away.

Edit: It has a -CCKW in the region but considering the anomalies, it still looks to be overreacting.

Image
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#52 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:59 am

Ok latest Euro develops a TD...
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#53 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 22, 2022 11:06 am

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#54 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Apr 22, 2022 8:52 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't remember 2018 having this magnitude of warm subsurface pool that helped spawn an El Niño that year. The last time I saw something like this was 8 years ago.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#55 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Apr 22, 2022 11:31 pm

dexterlabio wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't remember 2018 having this magnitude of warm subsurface pool that helped spawn an El Niño that year. The last time I saw something like this was 8 years ago.

This warm pool is building but is stuck very deep and away from the dateline. It won't help the WPAC or EPAC this season. Out of time. There's trades for days the next 30 days.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#56 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 23, 2022 1:56 am

It's likely the Philippines will get a flooding threat but long way out, the track and intensity consensus right now is a close call with a typhoon for Taiwan. Strongest Euro run yet. The track synopsis will likely be a recurve.

Image
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#57 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 23, 2022 2:01 am

Latest Euro develops a TS and also hinting the other circulation that the GFS is insisting?
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#58 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Apr 23, 2022 2:52 am

Kingarabian wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't remember 2018 having this magnitude of warm subsurface pool that helped spawn an El Niño that year. The last time I saw something like this was 8 years ago.

This warm pool is building but is stuck very deep and away from the dateline. It won't help the WPAC or EPAC this season. Out of time. There's trades for days the next 30 days.


But wasn't this how the 2014 warm pool started in the first place? It began far west then made its way east over the course of months. That warm pool weakened and its impact was not as significant as what was first expected. I believe 2014 also had issues with "atmosphere not being coupled with a warm ENSO state" but it appears whatever happened that year paved the way for the 2015 grand event.

So maybe (just maybe lol) this building warm pool could also be a hint of a big shift, even though we're talking several months or a full year before we see clear-cut signs of the little boy's return.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#59 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Apr 23, 2022 9:55 am

dexterlabio wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't remember 2018 having this magnitude of warm subsurface pool that helped spawn an El Niño that year. The last time I saw something like this was 8 years ago.

This warm pool is building but is stuck very deep and away from the dateline. It won't help the WPAC or EPAC this season. Out of time. There's trades for days the next 30 days.


But wasn't this how the 2014 warm pool started in the first place? It began far west then made its way east over the course of months. That warm pool weakened and its impact was not as significant as what was first expected. I believe 2014 also had issues with "atmosphere not being coupled with a warm ENSO state" but it appears whatever happened that year paved the way for the 2015 grand event.

So maybe (just maybe lol) this building warm pool could also be a hint of a big shift, even though we're talking several months or a full year before we see clear-cut signs of the little boy's return.


Perhaps but any +ENSO event is 10 months off at the earliest.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#60 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 23, 2022 2:42 pm

dexterlabio wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't remember 2018 having this magnitude of warm subsurface pool that helped spawn an El Niño that year. The last time I saw something like this was 8 years ago.

This warm pool is building but is stuck very deep and away from the dateline. It won't help the WPAC or EPAC this season. Out of time. There's trades for days the next 30 days.


But wasn't this how the 2014 warm pool started in the first place? It began far west then made its way east over the course of months. That warm pool weakened and its impact was not as significant as what was first expected. I believe 2014 also had issues with "atmosphere not being coupled with a warm ENSO state" but it appears whatever happened that year paved the way for the 2015 grand event.

So maybe (just maybe lol) this building warm pool could also be a hint of a big shift, even though we're talking several months or a full year before we see clear-cut signs of the little boy's return.


It's not uncommon for warm pools to develop in the aftermath of a La Nina. The 2014 warm pool I believe started in Jan/Feb of 2014. It had historical and persistent warm anomalies near +8C and because of that, it was able to overcome a slightly unfavorable neutral atmosphere and eventually trigger a weak El Nino. This warm pool has been present since December but it was never at the 2014 level. The atmosphere problems for 2014 pale in comparison to 2022. The only issue issue was the lack of a true WWB in the CPAC/EPAC during 2014. 2014 had a warm PDO, a solid +PMM, and a much warmer SPMM in place by January. On top of that, 2022 has had much stronger trades dominate the dateline and they continue to do so.

This warm pool may play a role for a 2023 El Nino, but right now it's out of time because a downwelling KW needs about 2 months to make it to the EPAC and surface. There will be a month of enhanced trades now and then another round during July/August. Regardless we need the SE Pacific and the PDO to warm up by the end of 2022 for a shot at any El Nino. I'm intrigued to see if it will last through the summer and into the fall. But I wouldn't be surprised to see it dissipate.
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