2022 WPAC Season

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Hayabusa
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#61 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Apr 24, 2022 1:59 am

Euro still developing a TS west of over the Philippines while the recent GFS runs trended from west of the Philippines to tracking back east of the Philippines and developing from there.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#62 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Apr 24, 2022 3:15 pm

12z GFS was back west of the Philippines. 12z CMC is very west and into Hai-han. 12z Euro is a close call with Taiwan. UKMET no development.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#63 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Apr 26, 2022 1:57 am

Kingarabian wrote:12z GFS was back west of the Philippines. 12z CMC is very west and into Hai-han. 12z Euro is a close call with Taiwan. UKMET no development.

Euro backed off making a TS in the last 2 runs while GFS still develops Chaba but weaker and insisting Aere would also form
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#64 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 30, 2022 3:20 pm

The latest fiasco reminds of me 2021, after Surigae, GFS continously hyped named model storms it only became a reality until the end of May-June but the actual storms themselves weren't as hyped. This time though the conservative Euro fell for the GFS meme, it developed a model storm that's at least TD-TS for many runs. So I say this is a collective failed hype of the top two models. Now they switched model storm development from NWpac to the Bay of Bengal.

The next one to watch for possible development is around or after 2nd week of May, another kelvin wave is coming to this basin, GFS op has yet to hype on this though.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#65 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 30, 2022 3:59 pm

Hayabusa wrote:The latest fiasco reminds of me 2021, after Surigae, GFS continously hyped named model storms it only became a reality until the end of May-June but the actual storms themselves weren't as hyped. This time though the conservative Euro fell for the GFS meme, it developed a model storm that's at least TD-TS for many runs. So I say this is a collective failed hype of the top two models. Now they switched model storm development from NWpac to the Bay of Bengal.

The next one to watch for possible development is around or after 2nd week of May, another kelvin wave is coming to this basin, GFS op has yet to hype on this though.
https://i.imgur.com/7gmEeBj.png

Models got confused on the MJO signal it appears. Was too soon for MJO induced WPAC activity when the MJO was still over Africa. I was confused when I seen modeled raw westerlies near the equatorial WPAC. I thought it was -CCKW related but in reality a -CCKW won't trigger double STY's in April.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#66 Postby Hayabusa » Wed May 04, 2022 6:20 am

Latest GFS looks like it's back to hyping model storms :D
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#67 Postby Hayabusa » Thu May 05, 2022 9:19 am

TSR released its first forecast, while they predict activity would be higher than 2020 and 2021 their ACE forecast and storm number is lower than 2021's first forecast.
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https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ay2022.pdf
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#68 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 07, 2022 6:33 pm

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#69 Postby Hayabusa » Mon May 09, 2022 6:11 pm

With the incoming CCKW it's easy to say the GFS is crying wolf again after the recent collective failure but this time there's also an incoming MJO behind it.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#70 Postby zzh » Mon May 09, 2022 8:25 pm

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King TUTT dominates the WPAC. I only see low chance of development outside of South China Sea.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#71 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 11, 2022 1:53 am

Euro still shows zero development for the next 10 days.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#72 Postby Foxfires » Wed May 11, 2022 10:16 pm

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: -AMO feels like the easiest scapegoat re: 1971 but JTWC incompetence could also be an underrated factor that could cause ACE from that year to be inflated.


I've though about this a bit. If that was the case, wouldn't the other La Nina years that -AMO be a tad more active? It's hard to draw proper comparisons because it's very different across years (with different strengths and how much of a year it takes up) but there is not a La Nina year in the WPAC during that -AMO in semi-reliable records (since 1970) that is nearly as active as far as I can see. JTWC overestimation could be a factor and is likely one, however JTWC underestimation is just as likely; this is not 1962. While it is possible that storms like Emma, Carmen, and Judy weren't TSs, it's also possible that TD-25 & TD-28 were TSs. Not to mention the storms on the stronger end (Olive (85kt/935mb), Trix (100kt/915mb), and Irma (155kt/<=884mb) are the ones that need the largest upgrades imo). I don't think reanalysis would drop it by 80 ACE units.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#73 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun May 22, 2022 7:35 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Just had someone who participates in hurricane hunter missions for NOAA give a presentation in my meteorology class, and he said one of their projects for 2022 is sending a P-3 to the WPAC to do recon missions in typhoons.

That would be awesome to finally get some good real time observations over there.

Looks like he is talking about the PRECIP project which will be conducted around Taiwan on May-August 2022 to study extreme rainfall in the Meiyu front, MCSs, and TCs. Taiwan/Japan and South Korea will each be deploying their own aircraft in addition to NOAA's. We'll probably see valuable observations regarding TC intensity too!

Image


Update:
Observations for PRECIP 2022 in/around Taiwan starts this May 23 and expected to run until August 10. Unfortunately, the NOAA P-3 aircraft will no longer be deployed for this project due to damage to its radar (announced by National Taiwan University last February).
http://precip.org/

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#74 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 22, 2022 11:03 pm

Too bad they're doing this in a La Nina year
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#75 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon May 23, 2022 4:20 am

Kingarabian wrote:Too bad they're doing this in a La Nina year

PRECIP was originally planned for summer of 2020 but was postponed due to COVID. That season had a slow start anyway. I do hope there's an "outlier" typhoon that they get to sample this year.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#76 Postby ThomasW » Mon May 23, 2022 4:50 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Too bad they're doing this in a La Nina year

PRECIP was originally planned for summer of 2020 but was postponed due to COVID. That season had a slow start anyway. I do hope there's an "outlier" typhoon that they get to sample this year.

Probably will see a monsoon trough set up in July, which could allow for recon to be sent into a typhoon then, even if we don’t see any more during the duration of this project (which I find unlikely). Also note the primary purpose of this project is to study the Meiyu front, which in itself will impact forecasting in the future.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#77 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu May 26, 2022 11:02 pm

2022 typhoon season outlook for Micronesia and the Marianas.

 https://twitter.com/NWSGuam/status/1530033640054341655


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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#78 Postby Hayabusa » Tue May 31, 2022 4:37 am

Pretty interesting, higher sst/potential intensity is more spread out eastward than 2020,2021
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On another note good thing 93W didn't become a sloppy Chaba, seems nature doesn't also want to break Chaba's high intensity record or atleast I want to believe :lol:
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#79 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue May 31, 2022 9:28 am

:uarrow: that helps highlight the Nina. Dateline is pitiful
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#80 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 07, 2022 7:27 am

Very quiet basin. 2022 ACE is below average at 17.4 units mainly thanks to Typhoon Malaka.

 https://twitter.com/JohnnyParker012/status/1534149154531954688


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