2022 WPAC Season

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Hayabusa
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#121 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:08 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Decent chance the WPAC gets some serious ACE courtesy of the CPAC in about 2 weeks.

I'd like a crossover but models have it already in a high latitude when it enters this basin and recurving early, means less ACE. I'd love it if it travels farther west before it does that.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#122 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:16 pm

Hayabusa wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Decent chance the WPAC gets some serious ACE courtesy of the CPAC in about 2 weeks.

I'd like a crossover but models have it already in a high latitude when it enters this basin and recurving early, means less ACE. I'd love it if it travels farther west before it does that.


If it passes the Marianas longitudes would be great for ACE.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#123 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:21 pm

Would be neat to get an Ioke but was El Nino.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#124 Postby zzh » Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:35 pm

Likely sheared apart by TUTT. SImilar to Omais last year but with higher latitude :lol:
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#125 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:01 pm

zzh wrote:Likely sheared apart by TUTT. SImilar to Omais last year but with higher latitude :lol:

TUTT lifts out per the GFS, but wouldn't be surprised to see this heavily sheared.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#126 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Aug 09, 2022 9:09 am

TSR lowers its latest forecast from the first forecast ACE value of 230 to 166 as if we're back to 2020 again. But it's ok, as long as a Haiyan/Meranti/Goni/Surigae forms...
Image
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... st2022.pdf
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#127 Postby zzh » Tue Aug 09, 2022 10:13 am

The June-July trade wind is the second strongest since 1965, only behind 2010. I think this season has the potential to be the most inactive season in history. :lol:
Last edited by zzh on Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#128 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 09, 2022 10:18 am

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#129 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:31 pm

0z GFS has a strong typhoon approaching the Philippines in the mid-range :eek:
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#130 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Aug 10, 2022 4:09 am

GFS is hyping stuff again.
Image

Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#131 Postby NCSUFan_WX » Wed Aug 10, 2022 5:40 am

GFS has been insanely consistent the last 24-48 hours with the development near Guam. 00Z Euro finally catching on also. Maybe we'll finally get our first typhoon since April...
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#132 Postby Foxfires » Wed Aug 10, 2022 6:18 am

NCSUFan_WX wrote:GFS has been insanely consistent the last 24-48 hours with the development near Guam. 00Z Euro finally catching on also. Maybe we'll finally get our first typhoon since April...


Uh Chaba was a typhoon (with pressure readings to support it iirc). So first since early July (Chaba formed in June but was upgraded in July). Either way it's been a while.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#133 Postby zzh » Thu Aug 11, 2022 6:28 pm

:uarrow: :uarrow: Completely dropped now.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#134 Postby zzh » Thu Aug 11, 2022 6:30 pm

With Meari being a TS, the WPAC finally produced ace after 36days :lol:
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#135 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Aug 11, 2022 11:59 pm

I should've known about the delusion of the GFS. I guess I'm just starving for a real TC :lol:. So unless GFS is dreaming a sub 900 mb storm, I would ignore any TC delusion from the GFS until the Euro is on board.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#136 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:31 am

Latest Euro now developing something...
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#137 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 15, 2022 11:01 am

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#138 Postby rileydoxsee98 » Mon Aug 15, 2022 5:13 pm

Hayabusa wrote:TSR lowers its latest forecast from the first forecast ACE value of 230 to 166 as if we're back to 2020 again. But it's ok, as long as a Haiyan/Meranti/Goni/Surigae forms...
https://i.imgur.com/Q5ufyPn.png
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... st2022.pdf



Surigae has absolutely zero business being mentioned in the same sentence as those other 3 legends. Surigae is a basic 150-155kt typhoon that has a cold CDO due to winter tropopause. It’s not even a top 50 strongest TC of all time.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#139 Postby Ed_2001 » Mon Aug 15, 2022 7:51 pm

This year being well below average, and possibly near record quiet seems like a good bet, but can’t forget 1998, 2010, and 2020 all produced top tier monsters in the Philippines sea come mid/late fall. This area of the world almost always find at least a trick or two up its sleeves every year.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#140 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Aug 15, 2022 8:22 pm

rileydoxsee98 wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:TSR lowers its latest forecast from the first forecast ACE value of 230 to 166 as if we're back to 2020 again. But it's ok, as long as a Haiyan/Meranti/Goni/Surigae forms...
https://i.imgur.com/Q5ufyPn.png
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... st2022.pdf



Surigae has absolutely zero business being mentioned in the same sentence as those other 3 legends. Surigae is a basic 150-155kt typhoon that has a cold CDO due to winter tropopause. It’s not even a top 50 strongest TC of all time.

Say that to JTWC and JMA. I'm just saying what they recorded :lol:
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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