2022 WPAC Season

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mrbagyo
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#161 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 02, 2022 6:30 pm

Im seeing tc genesis signal in the second week of October.
look like the Philippines would be in play again.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#162 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:50 am

mrbagyo wrote:Im seeing tc genesis signal in the second week of October.
look like the Philippines would be in play again.

ECMWF 00Z has a west tracker after 1st week. Looks like the CFS forecast is coming to fruition
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#163 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 03, 2022 3:01 pm

EPS 12Z. If the op/ensembles are right, the seed for the next storm is already there near 150E.

Image

Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#164 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:15 am

With the way things are trending and assuming they do not change, I'm expecting either a strong super Typhoon, or multiple minimal major-strength-esque Typhoons to close out the year by November/December. Simply a lot of anomalous rising motion on the way.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#165 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:05 pm

The last few GFS runs have been showing the potential for a powerful typhoon forming behind 23W. Assuming 21W doesn't get named, 23W will be Nesat which means yet another H name could become a big one...
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#166 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 15, 2022 5:34 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:The last few GFS runs have been showing the potential for a powerful typhoon forming behind 23W. Assuming 21W doesn't get named, 23W will be Nesat which means yet another H name could become a big one...



Im more interested with the one that will follow the H system since it will come at a lower latitude. It might be the first low rider of the season.

GFS is starting to trend more west and south on the latest run
CMC and Euro are also hinting at it. Image
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#167 Postby underthwx » Sat Oct 15, 2022 5:39 pm

mrbagyo wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:The last few GFS runs have been showing the potential for a powerful typhoon forming behind 23W. Assuming 21W doesn't get named, 23W will be Nesat which means yet another H name could become a big one...



Im more interested with the one that will follow the H system since it will come at a lower latitude. It might be the first low rider of the season.

GFS is starting to trend more west and south on the latest run
CMC and Euro are also hinting at it. https://s1.gifyu.com/images/track.gfso.2022101512.tc_wpac_ll.4cyc.png

Are these potential issues for the Philippines?
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#168 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 15, 2022 5:57 pm

underthwx wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:The last few GFS runs have been showing the potential for a powerful typhoon forming behind 23W. Assuming 21W doesn't get named, 23W will be Nesat which means yet another H name could become a big one...



Im more interested with the one that will follow the H system since it will come at a lower latitude. It might be the first low rider of the season.

GFS is starting to trend more west and south on the latest run
CMC and Euro are also hinting at it. https://s1.gifyu.com/images/track.gfso.2022101512.tc_wpac_ll.4cyc.png

Are these potential issues for the Philippines?


yeah, Late October - November systems frequently deliver nasty impact to the Philippines.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#169 Postby underthwx » Sun Oct 16, 2022 8:34 am

mrbagyo wrote:
underthwx wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:

Im more interested with the one that will follow the H system since it will come at a lower latitude. It might be the first low rider of the season.

GFS is starting to trend more west and south on the latest run
CMC and Euro are also hinting at it. https://s1.gifyu.com/images/track.gfso.2022101512.tc_wpac_ll.4cyc.png

Are these potential issues for the Philippines?


yeah, Late October - November systems frequently deliver nasty impact to the Philippines.

True that, I always worry for my family there, whenever a cyclone threatens the area
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#170 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 16, 2022 8:05 pm

GFS is shifting back en forth between straight runner (00z and 12z run) and recurve scenario (happy hour runs)

Image

Euro has a low in the same time frame

Canadian has a strengthening TC south of 15N
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#171 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 17, 2022 6:57 pm

GFS now leaning more on a west tracking storm for 3 consecutive runs.

Canadian is also showing a typhoon in the Philippine sea in 10 days.

Euro is not yet enthused with only a weak low as usual
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#172 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Oct 17, 2022 7:34 pm

Oct-Nov might be shaping up to be a repeat of 2020 when we had a train of TCs consecutively hitting the Philippines and Vietnam at this time of the year.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#173 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 18, 2022 1:04 am

00z back to recurve again lol
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#174 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 18, 2022 1:56 am

mrbagyo wrote:00z back to recurve again lol


The latest ensembles are still split into the westward and recurve groups but it appears there are more west members in the latest run. Euro ensembles are also favoring a more westward scenario, although the operational run still shows nothing. :lol:
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#175 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Oct 18, 2022 2:56 am

Latest Euro showing tropical development over the Philippine Sea next week.
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#176 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Oct 20, 2022 12:06 am

0z GFS back to showing a powerful typhoon impacting the Philippines behind 25W/soon-to-be-Nalgae. It's been all over the place though on the last several runs, but it's certainly something to watch. It's definitely primetime for a big one in that area.
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#177 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 20, 2022 1:56 am

Just needs to get tagged, it's looking quite healthy already
Image
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#178 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 20, 2022 3:38 pm

Plots finally updating after ecmwf migrated to a new data center, latest run 12z
Image
Image
It should be an invest soon
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#179 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:20 pm

Looks good to go.

Image
Image
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Re: 2022 WPAC Season

#180 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 25, 2022 2:46 pm

The area of convection near Truk atoll might need some monitoring also as it's starting to manifest on most guidance.
It should struggle in the short term due to shear induced by the outflow from 93W

Image
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