2022 EPAC Season

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Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#61 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 11, 2022 1:52 am

00z Euro drops it. Disturbance is there but no development.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#62 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed May 11, 2022 2:56 am

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Screams sloppy TS to me. GFS likely breaking down the monsoon trough too fast but I need to re-look at monsoon trough breakdown mechanisms.

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ECMWF keeps this broad unlike the GFS. Probably more realistic.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#63 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 11, 2022 6:43 am

Moderate confidence on a TC developing.

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#64 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu May 12, 2022 2:41 pm

GFS still shows a prospective system next week although not as strong before and it eventually curves it northward into cold waters. ECMWF still briefly closes it off but never fully detaches it from the ITCZ.

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Trade winds are westerly off the coast of Central America in the medium to long range by both the GFS and ECMWF at 12z which could allow for barotrophic instability needed to trigger a monsoon trough breakdown around day 10 on the Pacific side. Both major models and their ensembles still favor WCarb development however.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#65 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 13, 2022 3:07 pm

12z GFS now keeps the potential system next week weak and has it never detaching from the ITCZ. EPS/ECMWF support for a CAG (see global models thread) has increased and warrants further monitoring.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#66 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 13, 2022 4:14 pm

EC ensembles are bullish on development same as operational.

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#67 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 13, 2022 5:09 pm

We could get two circled areas in the EPAC in the next 5 days.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#68 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 14, 2022 5:09 pm

Kingarabian , GFS no longer develops nor EC.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#69 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 14, 2022 6:15 pm

cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian , GFS no longer develops nor EC.

Not surprised. Early season during La Nina, storms typically form near Mexico.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#70 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 15, 2022 6:43 am

First day of the 2022 season. Which name will be the biggie this season? I have Javier as a cat 4 but out to sea.

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#71 Postby AnnularCane » Sun May 15, 2022 8:40 am

I'd say whoever came up with the names for this list was a Seinfeld fan were it not for the fact that it was in use since 1980. :lol:
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#72 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 15, 2022 2:41 pm

12z ECMWF/EPS backs off the CAG happening in the EPAC.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#73 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon May 16, 2022 8:59 pm

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#74 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu May 19, 2022 10:22 pm

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EPS control has a really strong CCKW knocking on the doorstep by Memorial Day. Will affect both sides of Central America in terms of TCG but the Pacific side first.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#75 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 20, 2022 12:18 pm

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#76 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat May 21, 2022 12:51 pm

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Not that models are reliable in the medium range when it comes to intensity but there’s a strengthening model signal for 2 systems, one from 120W and one in the far eastern Pacific.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#77 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 21, 2022 5:57 pm

Very bullish GFS.

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#78 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 22, 2022 1:11 am

Ignore the random fall in pressure at the 0z GFS but the overall pattern is consistent.

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0z GFS is the second in a row to drop below 970 mbar before bringing this into Oaxaca.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#79 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 22, 2022 10:17 am

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6z GFS now spinning up the westward system fully. I have my reservations given the positioning of the MJO right now which resembles the conditions in which several prospective systems have busted.

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6z GFS slamming a Category 3/4 into Guerrero. I buy development here but not at that intensity.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#80 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 22, 2022 12:51 pm

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