2022 EPAC Season

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cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#161 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 25, 2022 2:08 pm

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the
southern coast of Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions
could support some slow development of this system thereafter as it
moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent


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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#162 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 26, 2022 6:11 pm

GFS and ECMWF both show a badly displaced ULAC shearing this prospective system and have similar initializations but what’s weird is they strongly disagree on the strength of the system.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#163 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 26, 2022 6:39 pm

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Will undue to weakening of -NPMM we’ve seen recently.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#164 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 27, 2022 5:06 pm

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#165 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:35 pm

PTC #2 / TS Bonnie will make the crossover and retain the name Bonnie and forecast to become a hurricane. How many times this has happned?

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#166 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 29, 2022 5:04 pm

I have some reservations it'll do that still. We'll see. Would certainly be a rare case.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#167 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 29, 2022 5:37 pm

Hmm in the rare case that it makes it to a major or even just hurricane status, would that add to the count for the Atlantic if it’s retaining the name?
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#168 Postby aspen » Wed Jun 29, 2022 6:12 pm

skyline385 wrote:Hmm in the rare case that it makes it to a major or even just hurricane status, would that add to the count for the Atlantic if it’s retaining the name?

It will be like Otto: it’ll only count towards the Atlantic totals on the Atlantic side of CA, and vice-versa. So if Bonnie explodes into a major over in the EPac like Cesar-Douglas ‘96, then that will only count for the EPac’s total.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#169 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2022 6:14 pm

skyline385 wrote:Hmm in the rare case that it makes it to a major or even just hurricane status, would that add to the count for the Atlantic if it’s retaining the name?


ACE count will be for EPAC.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#170 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 02, 2022 7:22 pm

CMC and GFS show another TC moving west after Bonnie from another AEW crossing CA. Might be another 94E situation with that easterly shear.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#171 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jul 03, 2022 5:01 pm

Coolest I've seen the EPAC. No 30C warm pool in early July? Yikes.

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#172 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 03, 2022 5:41 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:Coolest I've seen the EPAC. No 30C warm pool in early July? Yikes.

https://i.imgur.com/6OihfWy.png

Likely upwelled due to the repeat amount of TCs or disturbances in the area this past month. Should return.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#173 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 03, 2022 6:05 pm

Been a decade since I’ve seen the 26C isotherm so equatorial as well and I doubt we’ll see a greater than average warming over the next month given the MJO position. It’s like a spell was cast on this basin and really the entire tropical Pacific after 2018.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#174 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jul 03, 2022 7:59 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Been a decade since I’ve seen the 26C isotherm so equatorial as well and I doubt we’ll see a greater than average warming over the next month given the MJO position. It’s like a spell was cast on this basin and really the entire tropical Pacific after 2018.


Hah, those were the days! Globally, definitely still my favorite season!
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#175 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:55 am

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the
southern coast of Mexico toward the end of the week. Environmental
conditions are conducive for gradual development of this system
thereafter as it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#176 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 05, 2022 11:25 am

Euro and CMC keeping this generally weak. May spin up briefly or develop and remain weak for a while.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#177 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 06, 2022 7:21 am

Being at low latitude will help it intensify bigtime as it moves south of Bonnie's cool waters wake, and last very far west and maybe cross to CPAC.

1. Offshore of Central America/Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
coast of Central America is forecast to produce an area of low
pressure southwest of the coast of southern Mexico toward the end of
the week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend while the system moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.


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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#178 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:36 am

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#179 Postby Astromanía » Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:02 pm

Yeah Epac in first place for ACE
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#180 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:22 pm

Offshore of Southeastern Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the
southeastern coast of Mexico is producing an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast
of Mexico over the weekend while the disturbance moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


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