2022 EPAC Season

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Teban54
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#461 Postby Teban54 » Sat Oct 08, 2022 3:43 pm

Two crossovers in the same year has actually happened before, though not at TS intensity:

- In 1988, Hurricane Debby in the Atlantic became TD 17E in the Pacific. Hurricane Joan in the Atlantic became TS Miriam in the Pacific.

- In 1996, Hurricane Cesar in the Atlantic became Hurricane Douglas in the Pacific. Hurricane Dolly also entered the Pacific intact but quickly dissipated.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#462 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 09, 2022 12:35 am

Teban54 wrote:Two crossovers in the same year has actually happened before, though not at TS intensity:

- In 1988, Hurricane Debby in the Atlantic became TD 17E in the Pacific. Hurricane Joan in the Atlantic became TS Miriam in the Pacific.

- In 1996, Hurricane Cesar in the Atlantic became Hurricane Douglas in the Pacific. Hurricane Dolly also entered the Pacific intact but quickly dissipated.


The 0Z UKMET is maintaining the crossover idea and once again has Julia remain a TC through the end of the 144 hour run though weakening:

HURRICANE JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 81.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.10.2022 0 12.6N 81.8W 992 46
1200UTC 09.10.2022 12 12.7N 84.4W 993 35
0000UTC 10.10.2022 24 13.5N 89.2W 1000 34
1200UTC 10.10.2022 36 12.9N 90.9W 998 40
0000UTC 11.10.2022 48 13.2N 93.8W 1000 34
1200UTC 11.10.2022 60 13.1N 96.6W 1003 34
0000UTC 12.10.2022 72 14.5N 98.0W 1004 36
1200UTC 12.10.2022 84 15.0N 100.3W 1003 36
0000UTC 13.10.2022 96 15.7N 102.7W 1002 38
1200UTC 13.10.2022 108 16.0N 105.7W 1001 36
0000UTC 14.10.2022 120 16.4N 106.8W 1003 33
1200UTC 14.10.2022 132 17.2N 107.6W 1005 27
0000UTC 15.10.2022 144 18.2N 107.9W 1006 22
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Oct 09, 2022 3:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#463 Postby skyline385 » Sun Oct 09, 2022 1:02 am

weeniepatrol wrote:I'm old enough to remember the abundant posts here and on other forums about how hyperactive the EPAC is. How can the EPAC be so hyperactive during a La Nina? Wow, this is just so crazy.

EPac ACE has now fallen below normal and major hurricane days is at 31% of climo, well in line with a moderate La Nina :lol:

https://i.imgur.com/daNoHk3.png


Interestingly, the EPAC's ACE is currently 90% of its normal ACE while the NATL's ACE is only 79%. And this is with a strengthening La Nina.

Image
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#464 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Oct 09, 2022 2:01 am

skyline385 wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:I'm old enough to remember the abundant posts here and on other forums about how hyperactive the EPAC is. How can the EPAC be so hyperactive during a La Nina? Wow, this is just so crazy.

EPac ACE has now fallen below normal and major hurricane days is at 31% of climo, well in line with a moderate La Nina :lol:

https://i.imgur.com/daNoHk3.png


Interestingly, the EPAC's ACE is currently 90% of its normal ACE while the NATL's ACE is only 79%. And this is with a strengthening La Nina.

https://i.imgur.com/9cALGRv.png


Imagine Julia winds up contributing some more :lol:
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#465 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Oct 09, 2022 4:50 am

weeniepatrol wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:I'm old enough to remember the abundant posts here and on other forums about how hyperactive the EPAC is. How can the EPAC be so hyperactive during a La Nina? Wow, this is just so crazy.

EPac ACE has now fallen below normal and major hurricane days is at 31% of climo, well in line with a moderate La Nina :lol:

https://i.imgur.com/daNoHk3.png


Interestingly, the EPAC's ACE is currently 90% of its normal ACE while the NATL's ACE is only 79%. And this is with a strengthening La Nina.

https://i.imgur.com/9cALGRv.png


Imagine Julia winds up contributing some more :lol:


EPAC “stealing” ACE from ATL by importing Julia amid a classic La Niña year would be such a feat
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Re: RE: Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#466 Postby skyline385 » Sun Oct 09, 2022 9:36 am

dexterlabio wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Interestingly, the EPAC's ACE is currently 90% of its normal ACE while the NATL's ACE is only 79%. And this is with a strengthening La Nina.

https://i.imgur.com/9cALGRv.png


Imagine Julia winds up contributing some more


EPAC “stealing” ACE from ATL by importing Julia amid a classic La Niña year would be such a feat

It already did that with Bonnie :lol:
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#467 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 09, 2022 2:53 pm

12Z UKMET: doesn't have crossover survival as it falls apart near El Salvador only to reform two days later over the EPAC and later get close to Baja as of the end of this at 144. It then (per another source that goes out to 168) hits Baja later on Saturday followed by the moisture moving into the SW US on Sunday!

TROPICAL STORM JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 84.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.10.2022 0 12.4N 84.4W 991 40
0000UTC 10.10.2022 12 12.9N 87.5W 998 41
1200UTC 10.10.2022 24 13.4N 90.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 11.10.2022 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.0N 101.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.10.2022 84 15.6N 102.4W 1007 30
1200UTC 13.10.2022 96 16.0N 104.8W 1006 29
0000UTC 14.10.2022 108 16.0N 107.2W 1005 29
1200UTC 14.10.2022 120 16.7N 107.9W 1006 28
0000UTC 15.10.2022 132 18.2N 108.7W 1006 25
1200UTC 15.10.2022 144 20.3N 109.0W 1009 20
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#468 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 16, 2022 12:54 pm

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form by the middle part of
this week a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development as the system moves generally westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#469 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:46 pm

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162301
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 16 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days a
few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form late in the week
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#470 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Oct 16, 2022 7:36 pm

:lol:

Image
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#471 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 17, 2022 1:59 am

Image

ECMWF on board with development now and has the monsoon trough starting to break down by Thursday. Interesting it has the western portion winning out while the GFS more unrealistically shows both the west and east vortices developing.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#472 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 17, 2022 2:28 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170500
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Oct 16 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days a
few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form late in the week
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#473 Postby aspen » Mon Oct 17, 2022 8:24 am

06z GFS has finally given up on the unrealistic double cyclone development and now has just one system forming from this disturbance, becoming a 940s Cat 4 before taking a right hook into Mexico. Very similar track to Orlene, Pamela, Willa, Patricia, and Rick.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#474 Postby Astromanía » Mon Oct 17, 2022 12:29 pm

These last years have been very impactful to Mexico
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#475 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 17, 2022 12:45 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 17 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or two a few
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Beven
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#476 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 17, 2022 6:40 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 17 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure has formed a few hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico and is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#477 Postby Astromanía » Sun Oct 23, 2022 11:19 pm

You said it @Yellow Evan, October have been rough to Mexico
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#478 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 16, 2022 6:02 pm

An area of showers and thunderstorms south of Mexico has good convection but little model support.

Image
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#479 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Nov 30, 2022 3:28 pm

Well I guess today is it. Solid season overall given expectations and how ENSO played out and the disappointments in the other NHEM basins. Darby was a classic EPAC annular major, and Roslyn and Orlene were unusual (at least for a Niña) cases of rapid intensification that hooked back into Mexico.
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