2022 EPAC Season

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cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#141 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 13, 2022 1:02 pm

2. Off the coast of Central America:
A trough of low pressure located around a hundred miles southwest
of the coast of Nicaragua is producing a disorganized area of
showers and thunderstorms. This activity has changed little in
organization today, but some additional development of this system
is possible over the next several days as long as it remains
offshore, moving slowly northwestward near the coast of Central
America and southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become less conducive for development by the end of this week.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains will be possible
across portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Southern
Mexico through the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#142 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 14, 2022 2:08 am

0z GFS now bring this to actually decent intensity, even though they’ll be shear from a ULL in its vicinity.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#143 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 14, 2022 6:59 am

Off the coast of Central America:
Showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Central America
associated with a trough of low pressure have become better
organized overnight. Further development of this system is possible
while it drifts northwestward, and it could become a tropical
depression during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of
the week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible across portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#144 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:55 am

Interesting the data of La Niña years that is the first time since 1974 that 2 hurricanes haved formed by June 15.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1537114820507381760


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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#145 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 16, 2022 4:10 pm

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#146 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 16, 2022 4:33 pm

cycloneye wrote:Interesting the data of La Niña years that is the first time since 1974 that 2 hurricanes haved formed by June 15.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1537114820507381760



Well that's an interesting fact, seems like it's definitely not normal for this level of activity mid-June in a La Nina year. Also, TD 3-E could possibly get to hurricane status as well.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#147 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 16, 2022 4:37 pm

It is normal. 2010 the same thing happened although it was 10 days ish later. And that's due to intraseasonal timing.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#148 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 17, 2022 10:44 am

Five years since 1980, there were three by June 17.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1537810670489460737


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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#149 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jun 17, 2022 11:56 am

Did we ever have a season where the EPAC ended up being more active than the WPAC? Kind of interesting to see how the EPAC is even beating the WPAC currently in NS count lol
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#150 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 17, 2022 2:10 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Did we ever have a season where the EPAC ended up being more active than the WPAC? Kind of interesting to see how the EPAC is even beating the WPAC currently in NS count lol


WPAC has a lot more activity in OND than the EPAC. It’ll catch up.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#151 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 17, 2022 2:42 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Did we ever have a season where the EPAC ended up being more active than the WPAC? Kind of interesting to see how the EPAC is even beating the WPAC currently in NS count lol

Closest I recall was 2018. And that was the EPAC at its absolute peak but the WPAC still beat it in ACE.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#152 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 20, 2022 4:22 pm

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#153 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:23 pm



This is quite a front-loaded season, isn't it? :D

I'm beginning to wonder if this front-loadedness is the EPAC trying to cram in as much ACE as possible before La Nina forcing becomes dominant later in the year (and less favorable conditions materialize). Also interesting to see how the EPAC is more active than the WPAC (though I'm sure the WPAC will catch up later)
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#154 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 22, 2022 6:06 pm

Image

GFS trying to show other TC’s post-Celia but I have my doubts anything strong will come as there’s only a CCKW passing.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#155 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:37 am

Regardless of CCKW's, it's hard to believe there will be strong systems off of Mexico with these La Nina induced displaced anti-cyclones. Need something low latitude moving west.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#156 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:32 pm

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form well offshore southern
Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions could support some
slow development of this system thereafter as it moves to the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#157 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:10 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Regardless of CCKW's, it's hard to believe there will be strong systems off of Mexico with these La Nina induced displaced anti-cyclones. Need something low latitude moving west.


Space for those straight runners is limited too with -NPMM/-PDO, even if both signals are weaker than they were a month ago.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#158 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:19 pm

Yeah and the Atlantic is acting like it's August already. Doesn't bode well for the EPAC.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#159 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:26 pm

So you think that 0/20 has no chance to be a strong system?
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#160 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:So you think that 0/20 has no chance to be a strong system?

Don't see much support other than the GFS. Euro and CMC don't develop it until it gets past 110W. And they do so only briefly. If the GFS was correct, we would've started the EPAC season with 3 major hurricanes by now.
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