2022 EPAC Season

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cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#81 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 22, 2022 1:51 pm

ECMWF intensity is more reasonable.

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#82 Postby galaxy401 » Sun May 22, 2022 2:01 pm

Hoping for a decent season but I feel it will be like the last few seasons, mostly weak systems.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#83 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 22, 2022 2:26 pm

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#84 Postby zzh » Mon May 23, 2022 1:04 am

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central-East Pacific well offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located more than 500 miles southwest of
the coast of Mexico is producing a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
marginally conducive for some slow development as this system drifts
slowly over the central part of the Eastern Pacific through the
latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in a few days
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter,
some slow development is possible while this system moves slowly
westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#85 Postby ThomasW » Mon May 23, 2022 4:56 am

Interesting to see NHC mark the second AOI. Wasn’t expecting to see it put on the TWO for another day or so, but Papin definitely knows his stuff more than I do. :ggreen:
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#86 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 23, 2022 6:57 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon May 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. East-Central Pacific well offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the coast of Mexico continues to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear marginally conducive for some slow development while this
system drifts eastward through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form around midweek a
few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual
development is possible thereafter while this system moves slowly
westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake


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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#87 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 23, 2022 12:47 pm

Up to 40% the area of more concern.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon May 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central portion of the eastern Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the coast of Mexico continues to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
could support some slow development while this system moves little
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form around midweek a
few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly
westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#88 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon May 23, 2022 1:08 pm

GFS still sticking with an Oaxaca landfall with same intensity as before.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#89 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 24, 2022 7:00 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue May 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central portion of the eastern Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
off the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated with a trough
of low pressure. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development during the next couple of days while this system
moves little. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too strong
for development late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in a couple of
days a few hundred miles south or southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Further development is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while
the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Blake
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#90 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 24, 2022 10:58 am

NOAA has for EPAC between 10-17 named storms.

Extract.

Image

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... Hurricanes
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#91 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 24, 2022 12:34 pm

70%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue May 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central portion of the eastern Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support
some slow development during the next couple of days while this
system moves little. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too
strong for development late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered a
few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated
with a surface trough. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system
moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#92 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue May 24, 2022 2:11 pm

12z ECMWF calling for a hurricane into Guerrero.

Image

Image

Image

ECMWF showing a divergent and low shear environment, gradually becoming in more alignment with the GFS.

Image

12z GFS much more aggressive, probably too much, due to the GOT gap event enhancing the vorticity, and weakens this drastically before landfall in Oaxaca.

Image

GEFS showing a well aligned ULAC. EPS less so but still shows a decent environment overall.

Image
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#93 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue May 24, 2022 2:17 pm

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#94 Postby Astromanía » Tue May 24, 2022 3:18 pm

Wonder if this season will follow the trend from last one with these continuous hurricane landfalls in Mexico
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#95 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 24, 2022 6:19 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue May 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central portion of the eastern Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support
some slow development during the next couple of days while this
system moves little. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too
strong for development late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered a
few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated
with a surface trough. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system
moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
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Re: RE: Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#96 Postby SconnieCane » Tue May 24, 2022 10:34 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue May 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central portion of the eastern Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support
some slow development during the next couple of days while this
system moves little. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too
strong for development late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered a
few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated
with a surface trough. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system
moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
Kinda surprised there is no invest yet for the second item.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#97 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed May 25, 2022 12:25 am

Image

Image

0z GFS with the strongest run yet but still showing some weakening before landfall.

Image

Image

CMC and ICON showing different timing of landfall, with ICON making it much stronger. Both are further west than GFS.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#98 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed May 25, 2022 12:26 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250502
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue May 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
surface trough located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this week or this weekend while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Interests in
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Central portion of the eastern Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support
some slow development during the next day or two while this
system moves little. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too
strong for development late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#99 Postby skyline385 » Wed May 25, 2022 1:36 am

Latest EURO has it dropping to 980mb (down from 983mb last run) and with its conservative intensity estimates, those GFS runs might end up being pretty close

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#100 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 25, 2022 6:04 am

Some 2010 vibes here.
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RIP Kobe Bryant


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