2022 EPAC Season

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cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#101 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 25, 2022 7:12 am

Kingarabian wrote:Some 2010 vibes here.


Below average but had two big majors, Celia and Darby.

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#102 Postby galaxy401 » Wed May 25, 2022 12:37 pm

Should become an invest shortly.

2010 had that very active June with 2 majors and then crickets after that...
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#103 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 25, 2022 12:59 pm

Indeed invest very shortly.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed May 25 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show some signs of
organization in association with a surface trough located a few
hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this
weekend while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward
at 5 to 10 mph. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Central portion of the eastern Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles off the coast
of southwestern Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development during the next day or so, but upper-level winds are
forecast to become less conducive for further development by late
this week while the system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Bucci
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#104 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed May 25, 2022 1:07 pm

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#105 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 25, 2022 1:14 pm

Organizing.

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#106 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 25, 2022 1:43 pm

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#107 Postby skyline385 » Wed May 25, 2022 2:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:INVEST 91E is up

HWRF run is going to be interesting...
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#108 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu May 26, 2022 11:58 pm

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1529934542047526913




Re: 45 day EPS. Would suggest a busy first week or so of June followed by a lull at the end of the month.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#109 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri May 27, 2022 4:45 am

Yellow Evan wrote:https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1529934542047526913?s=21&t=I_g0R1wgL_u8r3klFQlvpA

Re: 45 day EPS. Would suggest a busy first week or so of June followed by a lull at the end of the month.


Based on recent history, we would have a standing wave in Africa until late September.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#110 Postby al78 » Mon May 30, 2022 4:07 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Should become an invest shortly.

2010 had that very active June with 2 majors and then crickets after that...


Yes I remember well hurricane Celia in 2010, the NHC having a tough time forecasting it with the models not getting to grips with the intensity at all. In a way it was fortunate it was a fish storm:

"HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18

85 kts
CELIA HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASING TO 5 KT OR LESS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE ALL OF THE INTENSITY SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...NONE OF THE MODELS MAKE CELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22

100 kts
NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY STRENGTHENING OF CELIA...AND THIS APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS THAT CELIA IS OVER AT THE MOMENT.

HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23

115 kts
THE INTENSITY MODELS...WHICH HAVE NOT PREDICTED THE INTENSIFICATION OF CELIA WELL...CONTINUE TO SHOW VIRTUALLY NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.

HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24

140 kts
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CELIA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS."
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#111 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 31, 2022 7:51 am

The basin begins the ACE count with 6.8 units that Agatha got.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#112 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 31, 2022 2:11 pm

Both GFS and ECMWF are showing development with GFS more strong.

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#113 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 04, 2022 4:29 pm

More stronger runs from GFS and ECMWF but with different tracks. By the way, the track of GFS is to the area where Agatha made landfall but hopefully it does not happen.

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#114 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 05, 2022 6:14 am

00z GFS and CMC focusing on a disturbance to develop near the same area as Agatha. 00z Euro has a Celia 2010 type track for the likely second named system of the season.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#115 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 06, 2022 6:38 pm

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Not even sure why that vorticity would be dominant and why it would move east. West vorticity is what the GEFS/EPS/ECMWF have launched onto as shown below.

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#116 Postby Europa non è lontana » Tue Jun 07, 2022 11:25 am

12z GFS run

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#117 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 07, 2022 12:32 pm

Here we go.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 7 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form just to the south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week. Some development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves little or drifts
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#118 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 07, 2022 7:57 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jun 7 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Off the coast of southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form off the coast of
southern Mexico later this week. Some development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves little or drifts
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi


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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#119 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jun 07, 2022 11:22 pm

GFS has the storm much farther NW than previous runs now.

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#120 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 08, 2022 12:34 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 8 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the coast of southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form off the coast of
southern Mexico over the next couple of days. Gradual development
of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression
could form this weekend or early next week while it moves little or
drifts northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


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