2022 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Probably not in that specific location but MJO should be in the region around April 20, and the ITCZ/monsoon trough is further north than normal thanks to the -SPMM. This is could be a hinderance down the line but it definitely isn’t in the early or late season so I’m not ruling out anything forming.

[Yellow Evan]

Although there was some weakening of the -PDO structure the first few months of the year, progress seems to have stalled itself for much of March, and even reversed itself in April. We're probably going to settle for a PDO of around -1.0 for much of the hurricane season as troughing is likely to dominate the Gulf of Alaska region for the next week or so and will probably erase even more of the reversal, which is enough to be a limiting factor. What solid +NPMM we had in say mid-February has vanished although the -SPMM remains, the +PMM held up by -SPMM pattern historically isn't super conducive for much other than a quantity over quality type season (due to the ITCZ being displaced so close to cold waters). Barring a miracle, this ends any chance the season had at passing 100 ACE.

A 2010/2007/1995 style season is unlikely unless the La Nina becomes basin wide, so I'm a bit surprised at the results here, especially given that like the ATL, the EPAC has had no problem putting up quantity over the last decade. Overall, I expect a season similar to the last two, maybe with less quality.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1515783349897420804




Too soon for any TCG but worth noting.

[Kingarabian]

We'll see if the EPAC reacts as well as it did to passing -CCKW's like last season.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1522177261927030784




Worth keeping an eye on. If it verifies that’s two periods where -VP would be in a favorable spot for development in the next month, and the ITCZ has adequately lifted north enough to allow for genesis.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1522177261927030784?s=21

Worth keeping an eye on. If it verifies that’s two periods where -VP would be in a favorable spot for development in the next month, and the ITCZ has adequately lifted north enough to allow for genesis.

Right on cue, the 18z GFS has some sort of weak TC in the EPAC during that timeframe.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1522177261927030784?s=21

Worth keeping an eye on. If it verifies that’s two periods where -VP would be in a favorable spot for development in the next month, and the ITCZ has adequately lifted north enough to allow for genesis.

Just curious, but how can I access the GEFS ensembles that go out 840 hr? Is there a Tropical Tidbits feature that allows this? I didn't know it could go out that far in time

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1522177261927030784?s=21

Worth keeping an eye on. If it verifies that’s two periods where -VP would be in a favorable spot for development in the next month, and the ITCZ has adequately lifted north enough to allow for genesis.

Just curious, but how can I access the GEFS ensembles that go out 840 hr? Is there a Tropical Tidbits feature that allows this? I didn't know it could go out that far in time

The 840 Hours on the 0z GEFS is only available before the next 0z GEFS run starts on TT.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1523063173317754880

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523272689242472448

[cycloneye]

With the CCKW moving thru, GFS takes notice.

[Yellow Evan]

I don’t trust the GFS in the medium range in monsoon trough basins anymore at least in terms of intensity. Burned me too many times.

[Kingarabian]

Also not too sure about 105W development and intensifying while moving NW this early.

[cycloneye]

Interesting area of convection to watch in the comming days.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF joins GFS on development but has one and the other one has two.

GFS



ECMWF

[Kingarabian]

I'd be surprised to see development that far west this early in a La Nina year.

[cycloneye]

He said it.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1524016829206827009

[cycloneye]

From 16:05 UTC discussion:

Meanwhile, a weak area of
low pressure may move along the monsoon trough with the
potential for increasing winds and building seas by the end of
the week into the weekend.

[cycloneye]

The monsoon trough is active and something will form from that especially with a CCKW moving thru in the next few days.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1524160774041706498