2022 EPAC Season

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#361 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:05 am

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#362 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jul 31, 2022 12:39 pm

EPAC is nearing 75 units of ACE. There should be at least one more (perhaps 2) once Frank and Georgette are done, might be sitting around 90-100 ACE by mid August. Still wild that this was achieved amidst entrenched Nina and -PDO. Regardless of reasons, typical or not early season I bet very few had this much ACE given the preconditioned factors.

WPAC didn't really quit, it just relocated to the EPAC :lol:. Joking aside, the current ACE in the EPAC is about normal for a WPAC season to date.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#363 Postby aspen » Sun Jul 31, 2022 4:33 pm

Ntxw wrote:EPAC is nearing 75 units of ACE. There should be at least one more (perhaps 2) once Frank and Georgette are done, might be sitting around 90-100 ACE by mid August. Still wild that this was achieved amidst entrenched Nina and -PDO. Regardless of reasons, typical or not early season I bet very few had this much ACE given the preconditioned factors.

WPAC didn't really quit, it just relocated to the EPAC :lol:. Joking aside, the current ACE in the EPAC is about normal for a WPAC season to date.

2022 just surpassed the EPac’s 2013 total (73 ACE), will soon surpass 2020’s (76 ACE), and may reach 2017/19/21’s totals (90-100 ACE) by mid-August….and we’re only in very late July. Unprecedented for a strong Nina/-PDO year.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#364 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2022 5:07 am

Here comes another one.

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of eastern Mexico in a few days. Some development of this
system is possible later this week while it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#365 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2022 12:27 pm

And now there are two.

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of eastern Mexico in a few days. Some development of this
system is possible later this week while it moves
west-northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. Well southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form a several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
by midweek. Some development of this system is possible by
late this week while the system moves westward over the open waters
of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#366 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Aug 01, 2022 1:39 pm

Epac won’t quit.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#367 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:And now there are two.

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of eastern Mexico in a few days. Some development of this
system is possible later this week while it moves
west-northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. Well southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form a several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
by midweek. Some development of this system is possible by
late this week while the system moves westward over the open waters
of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


https://i.imgur.com/CHZyoJP.png

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#368 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:40 pm

CFS has identified a culprit. Higher-frequency intraseasonal mode in the form of Rossby wave forcing, within the broader La Nina whose effects (suppressed convection and anomalous descent over the EPac) still remain evident

Image

Edit; CPC not CFS :lol:
Last edited by weeniepatrol on Tue Aug 02, 2022 3:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#369 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 01, 2022 7:24 pm

There have been several model runs now the system behind Georgette has potential to bring some impacts to Hawaii. Long way to go though.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#370 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon Aug 01, 2022 9:35 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:CFS has identified a culprit. Higher-frequency intraseasonal mode in the form of Rossby wave forcing, within the broader La Nina whose effects (suppressed convection and anomalous descent over the EPac) still remain evident

https://i.imgur.com/A5JgraG.png

Yeah this makes sense.

If EPS is to be believed there's going to be another decent CCKW passing over the EPAC over the next week or so, should see a few more storms within that timeframe. After that the basin will become suppressed and that should be when things should quiet down eventually.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#371 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 01, 2022 11:38 pm

If it's la te June into July or early August and the Atlantic is slow, the EPAC will be active by default.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#372 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Aug 02, 2022 4:40 am

0z GFS has a hurricane passing just south of Hawaii. Looks to come from the western AOI
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#373 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 02, 2022 7:00 am

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of eastern Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental
conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form this weekend.
This system is forecast to move west-northwestward, remaining well
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Well Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
later this week. Some development of this system is possible by the
end of this week while it moves westward over the open waters of
the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#374 Postby zzh » Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:58 am

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1554475312477528064



Trade surge through Caribbean into EPAC will gradually disappear in the coming weeks. If this verifies, I expect EPAC to shut down.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#375 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:56 pm

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of eastern Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental
conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form this weekend.
This system is forecast to move west-northwestward, remaining well
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Well Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
later this week. Some gradual development of this system is
possible by the end of this week while it moves westward over the
open waters of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#376 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 02, 2022 2:55 pm

Pretty much all the main models show some sort of TC south of Hawaii in 7 days. Euro is the most aggressive with it. A homebrew CPAC system that becomes a hurricane during La Nina is pretty rare. Something for me to monitor.

Euro also develops one of those AOIs. Same song and dance, expect a large impressive sprawling system at first, shear and dry air taking over, and just before it reaches cooler waters it makes a run at hurricane status.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#377 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 02, 2022 4:12 pm

Image
12z ECMWF has a TS/Cat 1 in the area of Hawaii in @6-10 days.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#378 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 02, 2022 4:32 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Pretty much all the main models show some sort of TC south of Hawaii in 7 days. Euro is the most aggressive with it. A homebrew CPAC system that becomes a hurricane during La Nina is pretty rare. Something for me to monitor.

Euro also develops one of those AOIs. Same song and dance, expect a large impressive sprawling system at first, shear and dry air taking over, and just before it reaches cooler waters it makes a run at hurricane status.


GFS has been showing the second AOI south of Hawaii for a while now and a few runs yesterday made it a hurricane but it's backed off in intensity since then so I was a bit surprised to the see ECMWF trend upward. The modeled environment is pretty good on both major model runs, though the ECMWF has the ULAC a bit to the east, which could invoke some shear, granted in a favorable direction.

First AOI is probably another Estelle/Frank in which it battles ULAC shear but is eventually able to fend it off but it may not be enough to more than a Category 1 hurricane.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#379 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 02, 2022 7:07 pm

Another Tropical Wave that crosses to EPAC and is going to develop.

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over Central America and the adjacent waters. The
wave is expected to move over the eastern Pacific waters on
Wednesday, and an area of low pressure is forecast to form a few
hundred miles south of southern Mexico in a couple of days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual
development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by this weekend and move west-northwestward, remaining well
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Well Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
later this week. Some gradual development of this system is
possible by the end of this week while it moves westward over the
open waters of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Image
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#380 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 03, 2022 7:00 am

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over Central America and the adjacent waters. The
wave is forecast to move west and an area of low pressure is
expected to form south of southern Mexico within the next couple of
days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend. The system is forecast to turn
west-northwestward over the weekend into early next week, remaining
well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
Another area of low pressure could form over the far western
portion of the eastern Pacific basin later this week. Some gradual
development of this system is possible over the weekend or early
next week while it moves westward toward the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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