2022 EPAC Season

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cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#381 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:35 pm

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with a broad area of low pressure located offshore of
the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of
days. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph over the weekend and into early next week, remaining
well offshore of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
Another area of low pressure is forecast to form over the far
western portion of the eastern Pacific basin by this weekend. Some
gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while it moves westward toward
and into the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#382 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:44 pm

Models back in agreement on a decent TC in the CPAC. Looks like it's off the monsoon trough. Should make for some nice eye candy if it becomes a hurricane.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#383 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:24 pm

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#384 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:55 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Models back in agreement on a decent TC in the CPAC. Looks like it's off the monsoon trough. Should make for some nice eye candy if it becomes a hurricane.


If this area gets a hurricane, out of explanations.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#385 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:53 pm

Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
Another area of low pressure is forecast to form over the far
western portion of the eastern Pacific basin by this weekend. Some
gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while it moves westward toward
and into the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#386 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:29 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 8 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Howard, located a few hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated
with a broad trough of low pressure located more than 1000 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Development of this system,
if any, will be slow to occur during the next couple of days. This
system is expected to move generally westward into the central
Pacific basin by the middle portion of this week, where
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Southwest Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles
south of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Some development of
this system is possible later this week while it moves
west-northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#387 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2022 4:05 pm

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#388 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:10 pm


If the NHC in post-season assesses Celia’s last-minute second peak as a weak hurricane, then 2022 will have had 8 hurricanes by now. How a -ENSO and -PDO year is running ahead of 2015 and 2018’s hurricane counts is beyond me.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#389 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:29 pm

Warmth near the equator is suppressing the ITCZ enough that the TC’s we are getting have more time to deepen but due to the increased shear we are having, getting quick intensification especially after a core is partially established has been an issue. Result is high named storms, ACE, and hurricane count with an expected major hurricane count, and I’m still expecting a sharp decline in activity soon as supported by the EPS and with the Atlantic peak looming.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#390 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 08, 2022 8:37 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Warmth near the equator is suppressing the ITCZ enough that the TC’s we are getting have more time to deepen but due to the increased shear we are having, getting quick intensification especially after a core is partially established has been an issue. Result is high named storms, ACE, and hurricane count with an expected major hurricane count, and I’m still expecting a sharp decline in activity soon as supported by the EPS and with the Atlantic peak looming.

I agree, if there were anything but -ENSO conditions these hurricanes would all be very close to MH status. In regards to the decline in activity it should happen soon. But IDK the 18z GFS says otherwise. Probably its biases again.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#391 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:06 am

Even in +ENSO I’m not sure we’d get genesis this far east consistently like this season in one. All we need is the rising cell over Central America associated with -AMO, and I’d bank on 6-8 majors and 200 ACE. Of course, we’d also have a much busier peak due to overall lack of competition from the Atlantic.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#392 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:10 am

Epac is ridiculous. What is fueling this activity?!
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#393 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 09, 2022 6:35 pm

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico is producing a
disorganized area of showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while
it moves west-northwestward to northwestward, well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#394 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 09, 2022 6:35 pm

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico is producing a
disorganized area of showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while
it moves west-northwestward to northwestward, well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#395 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:44 am

Per CSU EPAC has reached 80 units of ACE.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#396 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 10, 2022 2:03 pm

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#397 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 10, 2022 6:57 pm

GFS continues to show more EPAC activity. Not shutdown yet.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#398 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:21 am

Ntxw wrote:GFS continues to show more EPAC activity. Not shutdown yet.

GFS tends to have a bias towards phases 8/1 of the MJO which is likely why it is still keeping the EPAC train rolling - despite a brief reprieve mid-month, a -VP cell swiftly reappears over Central America, and it is an outlier in this regard. Euro and CMC are showing things quieting down after 90E, which makes sense as the EPAC eventually gets suppressed due to proper MJO/CCKW progression. I would not be surprised at all to see the G(E)FS eventually correct towards this scenario.

Image
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#399 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:44 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
Ntxw wrote:GFS continues to show more EPAC activity. Not shutdown yet.

GFS tends to have a bias towards phases 8/1 of the MJO which is likely why it is still keeping the EPAC train rolling - despite a brief reprieve mid-month, a -VP cell swiftly reappears over Central America, and it is an outlier in this regard. Euro and CMC are showing things quieting down after 90E, which makes sense as the EPAC eventually gets suppressed due to proper MJO/CCKW progression. I would not be surprised at all to see the G(E)FS eventually correct towards this scenario.

https://i.ibb.co/T4tgV9N/download.png
https://i.ibb.co/2q8v7mX/eps-chi200-anomaly-hov-equatorial-2022081100-MEAN.png
https://i.ibb.co/wc0YhJ0/gem-ens-chi200-Mean-global-fh168-384.gif


I understand it's the GEPS but quite interesting on your last graphic despite the western hemisphere in an overall sinking motion, South America continues the rising motion.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#400 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:37 pm

It was not expected but the basin has Ivette.
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