2022 EPAC Season

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NDG
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#401 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:45 pm

cycloneye wrote:It was not expected but the basin has Ivette.


Very short lived.
Easterly shear is starting to take over the EPAC like it usually does during La Nina years.

Image
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#402 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 21, 2022 6:28 am

A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of
this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves
northwestward then westward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
By midweek, cooler waters and dry air should end the chance for any
further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#403 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 25, 2022 12:02 pm

Climo ACE is starting to catch up to the EPAC. Development is slow on the models so it may catch up and fall behind.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#404 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 25, 2022 12:06 pm

If the Atlantic doesn't ramp up over the next 2 weeks, we could see another burst towards the second half of September going into October.

If the Atlantic ramps up then maybe the ACE will end up near average.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#405 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 26, 2022 12:26 am

CMC has two decent EPAC TCs by the end of its run.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#406 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:02 am

Latest model runs show potential for 2 large systems off of Mexico in the next 10 days.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#407 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 29, 2022 6:40 pm

GFS has 2 TCs of strong intensity but the modeled environment for the first isn’t very good.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#408 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2022 6:55 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Aug 30 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form later this week. The system is forecast to
move west-northwestward or northwestward, likely remaining a few
hundred miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico by late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible over the weekend while it moves westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#409 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 30, 2022 10:14 am

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#410 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2022 12:08 pm

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#411 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 30, 2022 12:12 pm

Yup prospects look good for some EPAC hurricanes. They're off of Mexico again so it could go either way. But for the sake of it being so slow right now, I'll ignore the potential issues these systems have in this area and I think we'll see something decent.

Probable these two systems take us to 90-100 ACE.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#412 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2022 12:45 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 30 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
Manzanillo, Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and
a tropical depression is expected to form later this week or by
this weekend. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward or
northwestward, likely remaining a few hundred miles off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico by late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible over the weekend while it moves westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Pasch
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#413 Postby aspen » Tue Aug 30, 2022 1:45 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Yup prospects look good for some EPAC hurricanes. They're off of Mexico again so it could go either way. But for the sake of it being so slow right now, I'll ignore the potential issues these systems have in this area and I think we'll see something decent.

Probable these two systems take us to 90-100 ACE.

This doesn’t make any sense. EPac hurricanes while the Atlantic is dry and stable during a La Niña September? People have thrown around “this is acting like a Niño when it’s a Nina” comments for the last few years and they don’t really hold up (I’m probably guilty of this too), but yeah this year really is acting more Niño-like. This is the most suppressed the Atlantic has been since 1994, a -AMO and +ENSO year (1997 and 2006 had higher NS counts or 2 or more hurricanes by this point).

If these very close-to-Mexico systems manage to bomb out despite the fact that there should be lots of Nina-related shear in this region, then it’ll only further highlight how something is very off with this season.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#414 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 30, 2022 2:06 pm

Might be the PDO structure. 2016 (maybe not the best of analogs because of the super Nino preceding it in 2015) had a similar PDO structure to this year.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#415 Postby Ntxw » Tue Aug 30, 2022 2:12 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Might be the PDO structure. 2016 (maybe not the best of analogs because of the super Nino preceding it in 2015) had a similar PDO structure to this year.


PNA was positive for most of July, negative during early August slowdown and has ticked back up again.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#416 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 30, 2022 2:32 pm

PDO has acted weird the last few summers with uniform above average SSTs in the NPAC but it’s still a -PDO configuration technically based on strength of anomalies. It might not have the same affect as a traditional -PDO though.

I don’t really think we are getting 2 hurricanes at least strong ones. The first one is already at a decent latitude and the second one is still in the range where the GFS is most notorious for being overzealous.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#417 Postby NotSparta » Tue Aug 30, 2022 4:06 pm

I mean the activity here is still Nina like, just there's more than usual. During La Nina the tracks are clustered near Mexico. If it was Nino like, you'd be seeing long trackers instead. Not so much of that this season
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#418 Postby Astromanía » Tue Aug 30, 2022 7:35 pm

GFS really wants a Odile 2.0
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#419 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2022 7:55 pm

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#420 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2022 1:01 pm

2. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico by late this week. Gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
by early next week while the disturbance moves westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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