2022 EPAC Season

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#421 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 31, 2022 2:22 pm

Both ECMWF and GFS now seem fully locked into a significant hurricane into Baja at the 12z cycle. I’m not seeing much that would actually push it westward out to sea so good chance someone in Mexico is going to get hit by something formidable.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#422 Postby aspen » Wed Aug 31, 2022 2:24 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Both ECMWF and GFS now seem fully locked into a significant hurricane into Baja at the 12z cycle. I’m not seeing much that would actually push it westward out to sea so good chance someone in Mexico is going to get hit by something formidable.

It’s so close to Mexico, though. I have serious doubts a system taking that track during a La Niña year would amount to more than a Cat 1. Not great to get hit by, but nowhere near the doomsday major landfall scenarios the GFS has occasionally yielded.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#423 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 31, 2022 2:44 pm

aspen wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Both ECMWF and GFS now seem fully locked into a significant hurricane into Baja at the 12z cycle. I’m not seeing much that would actually push it westward out to sea so good chance someone in Mexico is going to get hit by something formidable.

It’s so close to Mexico, though. I have serious doubts a system taking that track during a La Niña year would amount to more than a Cat 1. Not great to get hit by, but nowhere near the doomsday major landfall scenarios the GFS has occasionally yielded.


Image

La Niña or not, this is good ULAC setup (although not perfect given the storm motion). I’m not super bullish on something say in the Category 4 range yet but something like Olaf and Nora last year is definitely in the cards.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#424 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2022 3:42 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
aspen wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Both ECMWF and GFS now seem fully locked into a significant hurricane into Baja at the 12z cycle. I’m not seeing much that would actually push it westward out to sea so good chance someone in Mexico is going to get hit by something formidable.

It’s so close to Mexico, though. I have serious doubts a system taking that track during a La Niña year would amount to more than a Cat 1. Not great to get hit by, but nowhere near the doomsday major landfall scenarios the GFS has occasionally yielded.


https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/619419338151034911/1014619579214999602/IMG_1576.png

La Niña or not, this is good ULAC setup (although not perfect given the storm motion). I’m not super bullish on something say in the Category 4 range yet but something like Olaf and Nora last year is definitely in the cards.


What about Odile 2014?
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#425 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2022 6:48 pm

2. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico by late this week. Gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
by early next week while the low moves westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#426 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2022 12:42 pm

2. South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual development of this system
is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#427 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2022 12:42 pm

2. South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual development of this system
is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#428 Postby Astromanía » Thu Sep 01, 2022 2:43 pm

aspen wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Both ECMWF and GFS now seem fully locked into a significant hurricane into Baja at the 12z cycle. I’m not seeing much that would actually push it westward out to sea so good chance someone in Mexico is going to get hit by something formidable.

It’s so close to Mexico, though. I have serious doubts a system taking that track during a La Niña year would amount to more than a Cat 1. Not great to get hit by, but nowhere near the doomsday major landfall scenarios the GFS has occasionally yielded.

As if this year was acting as a "la niña" :roll:
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#429 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2022 7:52 pm

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#430 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 02, 2022 2:36 pm

Image

October could be quite busy for Mexico given climo and how far east activity has been focused this year.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#431 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 02, 2022 2:42 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1015337902575722627/unknown.png

October could be quite busy for Mexico given climo and how far east activity has been focused this year.

Looks like the Atlantic gets shut down around the same time too. Another ON 2021 here we come.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#432 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Sep 02, 2022 2:45 pm

aspen wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1015337902575722627/unknown.png

October could be quite busy for Mexico given climo and how far east activity has been focused this year.

Looks like the Atlantic gets shut down around the same time too. Another ON 2021 here we come.


The EPAC being busy in ON of last year didn't really have much to do with the Atlantic's shutdown; if anything, the lingering Atlantic Nino is the likely culprit for what happened last year, not really a direct effect of the busy EPAC. If anything, I'm actually willing to bet that this year will see something different in the ON timeframe with the lack of Atlantic Nino dragging the ITCZ far to the south.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#433 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 02, 2022 2:57 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
aspen wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1015337902575722627/unknown.png

October could be quite busy for Mexico given climo and how far east activity has been focused this year.

Looks like the Atlantic gets shut down around the same time too. Another ON 2021 here we come.


The EPAC being busy in ON of last year didn't really have much to do with the Atlantic's shutdown; if anything, the lingering Atlantic Nino is the likely culprit for what happened last year, not really a direct effect of the busy EPAC. If anything, I'm actually willing to bet that this year will see something different in the ON timeframe with the lack of Atlantic Nino dragging the ITCZ far to the south.

The high pressure that contributed to the Atlantic’s late 2021 shutdown will still be an issue, and look at the VP chart. A rising branch establishes itself over the EPac and Central America, while sinking air becomes present over Africa at the exact same time. That might shut down most of October in the tropical Atlantic, but who knows, maybe some subtropic surprise like Danielle pops up.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#434 Postby NotSparta » Fri Sep 02, 2022 4:03 pm

aspen wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
aspen wrote:Looks like the Atlantic gets shut down around the same time too. Another ON 2021 here we come.


The EPAC being busy in ON of last year didn't really have much to do with the Atlantic's shutdown; if anything, the lingering Atlantic Nino is the likely culprit for what happened last year, not really a direct effect of the busy EPAC. If anything, I'm actually willing to bet that this year will see something different in the ON timeframe with the lack of Atlantic Nino dragging the ITCZ far to the south.

The high pressure that contributed to the Atlantic’s late 2021 shutdown will still be an issue, and look at the VP chart. A rising branch establishes itself over the EPac and Central America, while sinking air becomes present over Africa at the exact same time. That might shut down most of October in the tropical Atlantic, but who knows, maybe some subtropic surprise like Danielle pops up.


There isn't an Atlantic Nino this year so I don't see how there would be the same problem as ON 2021
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#435 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 05, 2022 10:27 am

GFS has two more systems in 10 days becoming hurricanes. Euro has one. CMC still has it in the BOC.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#436 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 10, 2022 3:07 pm

Image

GFS now have AEW getting ejected from a monsoon gyre while spinning up too quick. I’d disregard it.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#437 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 12, 2022 7:53 am

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#438 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:40 am

12Z Euro has more rainfall for SWCONUS.

00z GFS has Lester/Madeline sticking around till October. Serious ACE if this materializes.

Image
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#439 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 14, 2022 2:54 am

What’s more interesting is the globals (both GFS and ECMWF) have moved away from merging 94E with the other disturbance and now just have an interaction that pulls the latter north. There are hints of a system behind those two but we know how the GFS in particular is with genesis out of the monsoon trough at that range.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#440 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 15, 2022 12:52 pm

GFS continues with either 94E/95E sticking around for 16 days.
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