2022 EPAC Season

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#21 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:06 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Shame this +PMM is probably going to be wasted due to a -PDO and a cold SEPAC.


No guarantee the +PMM even lasts into late spring given ENSO is in limbo and how stronger trades have weakened the northern hemisphere component of the PMM in the last week or so. Yet as I’ve noted on the ENSO thread, -PDO has slowly been weakening from is record lows thanks to the positioning of ridging relatively close to the West Coast, so I could see a scenario where it isn’t a serious factor this hurricane season. Cold SEPAC affects ENSO positioning positioning more than the EPAC activity itself.

Honestly as long as we aren’t in cold neutral or worse and/or true -PMM/-PDO territory, I think a solid season is fairly likely. If we can get a super strong +PMM with adequate +NPMM that sustains itself, an above average season (>150 ACE or so) is possible regardless of PDO even if El Niño is not a serious factor but I’m not certain of this take because the years of epic +PMM are fairly limited especially in years Nino does not form (basically just 1985 although 2018 is arguable).
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#22 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:34 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Shame this +PMM is probably going to be wasted due to a -PDO and a cold SEPAC.


No guarantee the +PMM even lasts into late spring given ENSO is in limbo and how stronger trades have weakened the northern hemisphere component of the PMM in the last week or so. Yet as I’ve noted on the ENSO thread, -PDO has slowly been weakening from is record lows thanks to the positioning of ridging relatively close to the West Coast, so I could see a scenario where it isn’t a serious factor this hurricane season. Cold SEPAC affects ENSO positioning positioning more than the EPAC activity itself.

Honestly as long as we aren’t in cold neutral or worse and/or true -PMM/-PDO territory, I think a solid season is fairly likely. If we can get a super strong +PMM with adequate +NPMM that sustains itself, an above average season (>150 ACE or so) is possible regardless of PDO even if El Niño is not a serious factor but I’m not certain of this take because the years of epic +PMM are fairly limited especially in years Nino does not form (basically just 1985 although 2018 is arguable).

Yeah I'm bringing up the SPAC because it's hurting +ENSO chances more than usual.. PDO historically warms during the winter regardless of the phase. So it could recool when the season shifts to spring.

We need either a +PDO/+ENSO or +PMM/+ENSO combo for a >150 ACE season IMO.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#23 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Mar 02, 2022 4:12 pm

2013 22.968 23.083 23.136 24.002 24.960 25.198 25.775 26.308 26.096 25.695 24.727 23.730
2014 22.960 23.397 23.989 24.531 25.226 25.828 26.403 26.953 26.477 26.362 25.208 24.403
2015 23.775 23.811 24.167 25.251 25.677 25.988 26.726 27.321 27.385 27.247 26.263 24.934
2016 23.804 23.654 24.204 24.767 25.385 25.761 26.339 26.773 26.648 26.366 25.780 24.365
2017 23.677 23.522 24.058 24.522 25.060 25.245 26.008 26.641 26.422 26.074 25.657 24.603
2018 23.660 23.841 24.104 24.779 25.373 25.581 26.242 26.740 26.790 26.073 25.073 24.103
2019 23.587 23.760 24.137 24.574 25.167 25.452 25.886 26.813 26.682 26.033 25.209 24.412
2020 23.530 23.292 23.990 24.462 25.173 25.527 26.050 26.501 26.350 26.291 25.437 23.864
2021 22.930 22.842 23.173 24.042 24.674 25.153 25.570 26.172 26.192 26.173 24.964 24.294
2022 23.503 23.313 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999
-999.999


https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/times ... Timeseries

January SST were at least comparable to 2015-18. February was a step back but still higher than the last 2 years.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#24 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed Mar 02, 2022 4:16 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
2013 22.968 23.083 23.136 24.002 24.960 25.198 25.775 26.308 26.096 25.695 24.727 23.730
2014 22.960 23.397 23.989 24.531 25.226 25.828 26.403 26.953 26.477 26.362 25.208 24.403
2015 23.775 23.811 24.167 25.251 25.677 25.988 26.726 27.321 27.385 27.247 26.263 24.934
2016 23.804 23.654 24.204 24.767 25.385 25.761 26.339 26.773 26.648 26.366 25.780 24.365
2017 23.677 23.522 24.058 24.522 25.060 25.245 26.008 26.641 26.422 26.074 25.657 24.603
2018 23.660 23.841 24.104 24.779 25.373 25.581 26.242 26.740 26.790 26.073 25.073 24.103
2019 23.587 23.760 24.137 24.574 25.167 25.452 25.886 26.813 26.682 26.033 25.209 24.412
2020 23.530 23.292 23.990 24.462 25.173 25.527 26.050 26.501 26.350 26.291 25.437 23.864
2021 22.930 22.842 23.173 24.042 24.674 25.153 25.570 26.172 26.192 26.173 24.964 24.294
2022 23.503 23.313 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999
-999.999


https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/times ... Timeseries

January SST were at least comparable to 2015-18. February was a step back but still higher than the last 2 years.


I am not a big fan of using current SSTs to determine future SSTs. Ultimately, the atmospheric and oceanic currents will decide the SSTA profile.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#25 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Mar 02, 2022 4:41 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
2013 22.968 23.083 23.136 24.002 24.960 25.198 25.775 26.308 26.096 25.695 24.727 23.730
2014 22.960 23.397 23.989 24.531 25.226 25.828 26.403 26.953 26.477 26.362 25.208 24.403
2015 23.775 23.811 24.167 25.251 25.677 25.988 26.726 27.321 27.385 27.247 26.263 24.934
2016 23.804 23.654 24.204 24.767 25.385 25.761 26.339 26.773 26.648 26.366 25.780 24.365
2017 23.677 23.522 24.058 24.522 25.060 25.245 26.008 26.641 26.422 26.074 25.657 24.603
2018 23.660 23.841 24.104 24.779 25.373 25.581 26.242 26.740 26.790 26.073 25.073 24.103
2019 23.587 23.760 24.137 24.574 25.167 25.452 25.886 26.813 26.682 26.033 25.209 24.412
2020 23.530 23.292 23.990 24.462 25.173 25.527 26.050 26.501 26.350 26.291 25.437 23.864
2021 22.930 22.842 23.173 24.042 24.674 25.153 25.570 26.172 26.192 26.173 24.964 24.294
2022 23.503 23.313 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999
-999.999


https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/times ... Timeseries

January SST were at least comparable to 2015-18. February was a step back but still higher than the last 2 years.


I am not a big fan of using current SSTs to determine future SSTs. Ultimately, the atmospheric and oceanic currents will decide the SSTA profile.


It’s only an indicator from a pure thermodynamic sense and in a basin with marginal SST’s it has more value because it can give storms a lot more time to intensify. Warmer SST’s could lead to more rising motion but with the way the PMM works, you’d need cool SST’s in the SHEM to compensate (which tbf we have right now).
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#26 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Mar 16, 2022 3:33 pm

Image

Image

We are at the point where we have some better idea on some key factors for the season. Niña is still going strong, and been re-enforced by MJO lingering over the Indian Ocean the last several weeks right at the start of the SPB. The NPAC is not particularly warm (despite the RRR emerging in a favorable spot, it wasn’t enough to override a really active Pacific jet last fall that prompted significant upwelling and a record -PDO) and current trade wind forecast is not too favorable for warming in the tropical Pacific, with at best a mix of easterlies and westerlies. This sort of setup is unlikely to strengthen the current La Niña induced +PMM at a time where a +PMM would be beneficial as the ITCZ is lifting northward. A weakening of the +PMM may already has begun based on Februaries values.

2022 4.460 3.950 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000
-99.0
SST PMM


The -PDO, despite the RRR centered off California for half a winter, is still fairly strong. Wouldn’t rule out it flipping later in the year but given the ongoing Niña, I wouldn’t expect a flip in the summer.

Yellow Evan wrote:All I will say for now is if you want an active season that exceeds last year (which got 94 ACE) without an El Niño:

-Hope for +PNA/TNH and -NPO(?) to warm up the Pacific horseshoe and cool off the waters near the Aleutians. This could reverse the -PDO, and in extreme circumstances set up a prolonged period of +PDO (2014-18 is the poster child of this).

-Hope for a -AMO return. This probably won’t happen for another decade or so but this would result in rising motion over Central America especially in non-El Niño years.

If neither happens, 100 ACE is probably the ceiling unless there’s a Niño which are not most years. If there is a first year La Niña and we remain +AMO/-PDO, ACE probably falls in the 50-80 range. Otherwise, probably 100 ACE is the ceiling.


Highlighting my earlier post from December. Neither will happen. La Niña induced +PMM will just lift the ITCZ further north, which could hinder the amount of time storms can strengthen, even if the ITCZ itself is likely to be enhanced with more vorticity due to higher Coriolis force the further one gets away from the equator. On the plus side, this Niña has become more west based in the last month or so, which would at least result in more favorable activity on the eastern portion of the basin, and despite the downsides of a +PMM highlighted above, the N Pacific component of the +PMM is warmer than one would typically expect after a Nina. Still, with the potential of a stronger La Nina and assuming the maintenance of a summer +AMO, hard to not expect an average to slightly below average season.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#27 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 24, 2022 8:22 am

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Mar 28, 2022 8:31 pm

Image

Most favorable the EPAC SST’s have looked since end of 2020 though that isn’t saying much. Upcoming stretch looks decently favorable however.

Image
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#30 Postby Astromanía » Mon Apr 04, 2022 2:18 am

Do you guys think we will ever see a hurricane making lanfall in California this century or a category five hurricane making landfall in Mexico from the pacific? First one have happened just one time and the second one has never been reported for now, what do you think is more probable to occur first? what factors we need for both to happen, is Hawaii gonna see an hurricane making landfall this decade? Can a major hurricane make landfall in Hawaii again? Can El Niño form next year and the Epac outperform for the first time since 2018 or this trend is going to continue? I open this discussion before this expected below normal or near normal season begins
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#31 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Apr 05, 2022 1:24 am



This is what usually happens anytime you get a solid +PMM, they falter after a few months. 2015 and 2018 are the abnormalities because they actually were remarkably long lived while this event was largely dominated by -SPMM and induced by a La Niña. The NHEM component remains somewhat warm however and the PDO has continued its upward climb (though given how active the NPAC jet is going to get this may change), so overall the SST setup is probably a little more favorable than last season. Expecting the most active season since 2019 is a low bar but not an unreasonable expectation.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#32 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Apr 05, 2022 7:01 am

Astromanía wrote:Do you guys think we will ever see a hurricane making lanfall in California this century or a category five hurricane making landfall in Mexico from the pacific? First one have happened just one time and the second one has never been reported for now, what do you think is more probable to occur first? what factors we need for both to happen, is Hawaii gonna see an hurricane making landfall this decade? Can a major hurricane make landfall in Hawaii again? Can El Niño form next year and the Epac outperform for the first time since 2018 or this trend is going to continue? I open this discussion before this expected below normal or near normal season begins


Re: California TC requires an epic +PDO much akin to 1939-1942 and 2014-18 as that warms up the west coast horseshoe dramatically. There’s some evidence that late 1850’s was similar, which featured the only known California hurricane strike, exhibited this pattern but the ENSO ONI and ERSST datasets don’t fully support this.

Re: Mexico Category 5 landfall is probably unlikely from the Pacific coast. Storms that recurve are usually getting 20-30 knots of shear even if they have a great trough interaction like Patricia did, which favors at least some weakening. Topography also likely contributes to a rapid fill in of systems prior to landfall as there’s only been 1 TC ever to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico with a cleared eye excluding the Baja California Peninsula. Best bet is probably over Baja but SST’s and close proximity to mainland Mexico would hinder a storm reaching that strength on a trajectory towards the peninsula and maintaining it all the way through landfall. Socorro Island might be the real best bet.

Re: Hawaii the slight warming of the tropics we are seeing in AGW moves the needle to where it has become much more viable for a storm to hit from the west and not spend much time over sub-26C SSTs. Furthermore, overall Hadley Cell expansion is likely to reduce shear over the region. Only a matter of time before they get a legit hurricane threat though topography of the island chain can lead to sudden altercations in storm track if the trajectory is from the ESE. A major hurricane probably requires the right timing with a trough that would steer it into the island chain from the south, so while rare, wouldn’t shock me to see it happen again this century.

Re: next El Nino I almost don’t wanna touch this subject because predicting El Nino is a lot like predicting a recession in that one often appears imminent a year or so out. But here I go anyway. The multi-year Niña is going to continue to lead to Pacific Coast ridging which will worsen the drought but also warm up the offshore waters that would favor at least a temporary blip in +PDO, under the best case comparable to that of 2014-18. The +PMM is often a decent predictor of a Nino up to 12-15 months out even if the initial Nino attempt fails, so I do think barring a moderate to strong Niña this winter, I do think conditions can be ripe for a solid +ENSO attempt, which would make a >100 ACE season plausible, and if we get a solid El Niño or really good cooperation with +PDO/PMM, potentially much more than that. At the same time, I can’t say we’ll ever see anything like 2018 again just because in addition to the very favorable background state, of how much that season’s ACE total was due to strong ridging that steered everything due west over warm enough waters. I also think, because we are headed towards an era of low ENSO variation right now, getting frequent strong Ninos is going to be difficult but multi-year +ENSO events should be somewhat more common, which would lead to longer boom and bust periods at least until -AMO returns.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#33 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 05, 2022 11:36 am

ECMWF activity for this basin is:

TS: 16.7 ±3.5 (14.9)
HU: 9.0 ±2.7 (8.0)

Image
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Apr 05, 2022 10:34 pm

cycloneye wrote:ECMWF activity for this basin is:

TS: 16.7 ±3.5 (14.9)
HU: 9.0 ±2.7 (8.0)

https://i.imgur.com/6OmXCWI.png


 https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1511321747446013954


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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#35 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Apr 06, 2022 1:04 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Astromanía wrote:Do you guys think we will ever see a hurricane making lanfall in California this century or a category five hurricane making landfall in Mexico from the pacific? First one have happened just one time and the second one has never been reported for now, what do you think is more probable to occur first? what factors we need for both to happen, is Hawaii gonna see an hurricane making landfall this decade? Can a major hurricane make landfall in Hawaii again? Can El Niño form next year and the Epac outperform for the first time since 2018 or this trend is going to continue? I open this discussion before this expected below normal or near normal season begins


Re: California TC requires an epic +PDO much akin to 1939-1942 and 2014-18 as that warms up the west coast horseshoe dramatically. There’s some evidence that late 1850’s was similar, which featured the only known California hurricane strike, exhibited this pattern but the ENSO ONI and ERSST datasets don’t fully support this.

Re: Mexico Category 5 landfall is probably unlikely from the Pacific coast. Storms that recurve are usually getting 20-30 knots of shear even if they have a great trough interaction like Patricia did, which favors at least some weakening. Topography also likely contributes to a rapid fill in of systems prior to landfall as there’s only been 1 TC ever to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico with a cleared eye excluding the Baja California Peninsula. Best bet is probably over Baja but SST’s and close proximity to mainland Mexico would hinder a storm reaching that strength on a trajectory towards the peninsula and maintaining it all the way through landfall. Socorro Island might be the real best bet.

Re: Hawaii the slight warming of the tropics we are seeing in AGW moves the needle to where it has become much more viable for a storm to hit from the west and not spend much time over sub-26C SSTs. Furthermore, overall Hadley Cell expansion is likely to reduce shear over the region. Only a matter of time before they get a legit hurricane threat though topography of the island chain can lead to sudden altercations in storm track if the trajectory is from the ESE. A major hurricane probably requires the right timing with a trough that would steer it into the island chain from the south, so while rare, wouldn’t shock me to see it happen again this century.

Re: next El Nino I almost don’t wanna touch this subject because predicting El Nino is a lot like predicting a recession in that one often appears imminent a year or so out. But here I go anyway. The multi-year Niña is going to continue to lead to Pacific Coast ridging which will worsen the drought but also warm up the offshore waters that would favor at least a temporary blip in +PDO, under the best case comparable to that of 2014-18. The +PMM is often a decent predictor of a Nino up to 12-15 months out even if the initial Nino attempt fails, so I do think barring a moderate to strong Niña this winter, I do think conditions can be ripe for a solid +ENSO attempt, which would make a >100 ACE season plausible, and if we get a solid El Niño or really good cooperation with +PDO/PMM, potentially much more than that. At the same time, I can’t say we’ll ever see anything like 2018 again just because in addition to the very favorable background state, of how much that season’s ACE total was due to strong ridging that steered everything due west over warm enough waters. I also think, because we are headed towards an era of low ENSO variation right now, getting frequent strong Ninos is going to be difficult but multi-year +ENSO events should be somewhat more common, which would lead to longer boom and bust periods at least until -AMO returns.



Good takes. Can't disagree with much here other than I think 2021 was a lot better and more quality vs 2019. Maybe it's because 2019 was really hyped up pre season and it failed to live up to expectations. But looking at the forecast conditions, I'm afraid the EPAC will mimic 2019 this year. EPAC hurricane seasons during 3rd year La Ninas usually consist of a bunch of weak and short lived systems.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#36 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Apr 06, 2022 3:17 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Astromanía wrote:Do you guys think we will ever see a hurricane making lanfall in California this century or a category five hurricane making landfall in Mexico from the pacific? First one have happened just one time and the second one has never been reported for now, what do you think is more probable to occur first? what factors we need for both to happen, is Hawaii gonna see an hurricane making landfall this decade? Can a major hurricane make landfall in Hawaii again? Can El Niño form next year and the Epac outperform for the first time since 2018 or this trend is going to continue? I open this discussion before this expected below normal or near normal season begins


Re: California TC requires an epic +PDO much akin to 1939-1942 and 2014-18 as that warms up the west coast horseshoe dramatically. There’s some evidence that late 1850’s was similar, which featured the only known California hurricane strike, exhibited this pattern but the ENSO ONI and ERSST datasets don’t fully support this.

Re: Mexico Category 5 landfall is probably unlikely from the Pacific coast. Storms that recurve are usually getting 20-30 knots of shear even if they have a great trough interaction like Patricia did, which favors at least some weakening. Topography also likely contributes to a rapid fill in of systems prior to landfall as there’s only been 1 TC ever to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico with a cleared eye excluding the Baja California Peninsula. Best bet is probably over Baja but SST’s and close proximity to mainland Mexico would hinder a storm reaching that strength on a trajectory towards the peninsula and maintaining it all the way through landfall. Socorro Island might be the real best bet.

Re: Hawaii the slight warming of the tropics we are seeing in AGW moves the needle to where it has become much more viable for a storm to hit from the west and not spend much time over sub-26C SSTs. Furthermore, overall Hadley Cell expansion is likely to reduce shear over the region. Only a matter of time before they get a legit hurricane threat though topography of the island chain can lead to sudden altercations in storm track if the trajectory is from the ESE. A major hurricane probably requires the right timing with a trough that would steer it into the island chain from the south, so while rare, wouldn’t shock me to see it happen again this century.

Re: next El Nino I almost don’t wanna touch this subject because predicting El Nino is a lot like predicting a recession in that one often appears imminent a year or so out. But here I go anyway. The multi-year Niña is going to continue to lead to Pacific Coast ridging which will worsen the drought but also warm up the offshore waters that would favor at least a temporary blip in +PDO, under the best case comparable to that of 2014-18. The +PMM is often a decent predictor of a Nino up to 12-15 months out even if the initial Nino attempt fails, so I do think barring a moderate to strong Niña this winter, I do think conditions can be ripe for a solid +ENSO attempt, which would make a >100 ACE season plausible, and if we get a solid El Niño or really good cooperation with +PDO/PMM, potentially much more than that. At the same time, I can’t say we’ll ever see anything like 2018 again just because in addition to the very favorable background state, of how much that season’s ACE total was due to strong ridging that steered everything due west over warm enough waters. I also think, because we are headed towards an era of low ENSO variation right now, getting frequent strong Ninos is going to be difficult but multi-year +ENSO events should be somewhat more common, which would lead to longer boom and bust periods at least until -AMO returns.



Good takes. Can't disagree with much here other than I think 2021 was a lot better and more quality vs 2019. Maybe it's because 2019 was really hyped up pre season and it failed to live up to expectations. But looking at the forecast conditions, I'm afraid the EPAC will mimic 2019 this year. EPAC hurricane seasons during 3rd year La Ninas usually consist of a bunch of weak and short lived systems.


The record of third year Ninas isn’t large. In the satellite age, it is limited to 1975, 1985, and 2000, the latter two of which outperformed the previous season but also far less active than 1st year Ninas (ofc those 1st year Ninas were coming off monster late ending Ninos which likely still had an affect on the previous season). 1975 from what I’ve been able to analyze was likely the same or a little more active than 1974 (both years officially had 4 majors but based on low quality polar imagery I’ve gathered I think 1975 could have had up to 3 more and 1974 could have had 2). Probably not a significant enough sample to make any conclusions that would prompt a deviation from expectations of a 2nd year Niña.

As for 2019, let’s not forget it did have 4 major hurricanes, including one that probably reached Category 5, a cool pinhole near 145W, and a busy September that featured two major hurricanes and a hurricane landfall in Mexico. ACE in 2019 was higher than 2021 and 2021 had half as many majors and was pretty lacking outside Felicia, Linda, and Olaf. 2019 in general was hurt badly by the Modoki Nino look that emerged by peak season, which destroyed our chances of a >135 ACE season despite a really warm NPAC and +PMM that prompted high pre-season expectations. If I were to rank all the seasons, I’d put 2019 somewhere in the middle (probably in the 20’s) and I can’t really argue 2021 was better.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#37 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Apr 08, 2022 2:35 pm

2019 had eight or nine of these. Most of these didn't realistically last more than 24 hours. Here are six examples:

Image

Image

2021 had three.

IMO the NHC was very generous in 2019. The total storm count could've been significantly lower.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#38 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Apr 09, 2022 12:06 am

:uarrow: 2021 had its fair share of slop too. I don't think every RMSC declares Andres, Ignacio didn't exactly have the solidest ASCAT support IIRC, and Marty, Sandra, and Terry, while definitely nameable, were definitely slop the entire life. It's been a feature of every season since 2018.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#39 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 12, 2022 7:07 am

Maybe we see Agatha? But is long range and GFS is famous for having some phanthoms in this period pre season.

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#40 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 12, 2022 12:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:Maybe we see Agatha? But is long range and GFS is famous for having some phanthoms in this period pre season.

https://i.imgur.com/V03Xni7.gif


Phanthom.
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