2022 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

12z Model runs showed some 2016/2017 hurricane freight train vibes.

[skyline385]

Yea there is another one behind the current AOI if 12Z verifies, EPAC is having some fun right now.

[Yellow Evan]

European, American, and Canadian models all at least hint at 2 storms during the next 10 days and beyond.

[cycloneye]

ACE will rise even more leaving the North Atlantic way behind despite La Niña. Right now ACE is over 30 units while the North Atlantic is at 2.8.

[aspen]

Not really behaving like a La Niña year. 2010’s active streak didn’t go as long; now we might get yet another long-tracking hurricane and at least one other storm by mid-July.

[Kingarabian]

Not really behaving like a La Niña year. 2010’s active streak didn’t go as long; now we might get yet another long-tracking hurricane and at least one other storm by mid-July.

2017?

[Kingarabian]

Also models can be too trigger happy in the long range for the EPAC when it comes to AEWs. Seen some similar cases in the past couple of years. In July, ridging starts to slowly weaken north of the GOM which allows a chance for those waves to have more land interaction.

[skyline385]

Not really behaving like a La Niña year. 2010’s active streak didn’t go as long; now we might get yet another long-tracking hurricane and at least one other storm by mid-July.

2017?

2017 had a relatively much slower start though with the first hurricane being June 24, July might end up looking similar if the models verify.

Also, that one long range EPS member going on a tour of the Pacific

[cycloneye]

Where is the 20/70 AOI on the 18z GFS?

[Yellow Evan]

Not really behaving like a La Niña year. 2010’s active streak didn’t go as long; now we might get yet another long-tracking hurricane and at least one other storm by mid-July.

We go through this every year that there is a Niña when the basin gets active for a month or two only for activity to subside over subsequent weeks or months. If we’re still above average ACE by mid-August, I’ll be impressed.

[skyline385]

Where is the 20/70 AOI on the 18z GFS?

https://i.imgur.com/SMFLpwl.gif

ICON still has it, just happy hour GFS being its usual self probably

[cycloneye]

No change.

1. Offshore of Southeastern Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the
southeastern coast of Mexico is producing an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast
of Mexico over the weekend while the disturbance moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Where is the 20/70 AOI on the 18z GFS?

https://i.imgur.com/SMFLpwl.gif

ICON still has it, just happy hour GFS being its usual self probably

12z GFS was probably breaking the monsoon trough down too fast. But 18z GFS did not initialize well more so than 12z:

[aspen]

Not really behaving like a La Niña year. 2010’s active streak didn’t go as long; now we might get yet another long-tracking hurricane and at least one other storm by mid-July.

2017?

Oh yeah, wasn’t 2016-17 also a winter Nina or close to one?

I guess what I meant to say was how June-July 2022 hasn’t acted like those of 2020 and 2021 so far despite being the third Nina in a row. Assuming Celia gets upgraded, the EPac has had four hurricanes in a row despite the Nina, and the Atlantic so far has been slower (possibly due to the cooler subtropics, which will end up benefiting activity in the long run).

[Category5Kaiju]

It's kind of funny seeing the EPAC have all of this activity while even the WPAC remains relatively quiet haha

[weeniepatrol]

Not really behaving like a La Niña year. 2010’s active streak didn’t go as long; now we might get yet another long-tracking hurricane and at least one other storm by mid-July.

Yeah but in 2010 during one of the strongest ninas observed those systems included a rare epac c5 and a c3

[weeniepatrol]

I guess what I meant to say was how June-July 2022 hasn’t acted like those of 2020 and 2021 so far despite being the third Nina in a row. Assuming Celia gets upgraded, the EPac has had four hurricanes in a row despite the Nina, and the Atlantic so far has been slower (possibly due to the cooler subtropics, which will end up benefiting activity in the long run).

Make zero mistake the Atlantic has been slower because it's 6 July...

Not really behaving like a La Niña year. 2010’s active streak didn’t go as long; now we might get yet another long-tracking hurricane and at least one other storm by mid-July.

We go through this every year that there is a Niña when the basin gets active for a month or two only for activity to subside over subsequent weeks or months. If we’re still above average ACE by mid-August, I’ll be impressed.

Exactly.

[Yellow Evan]

Not really behaving like a La Niña year. 2010’s active streak didn’t go as long; now we might get yet another long-tracking hurricane and at least one other storm by mid-July.

2017?

Oh yeah, wasn’t 2016-17 also a winter Nina or close to one?

I guess what I meant to say was how June-July 2022 hasn’t acted like those of 2020 and 2021 so far despite being the third Nina in a row. Assuming Celia gets upgraded, the EPac has had four hurricanes in a row despite the Nina, and the Atlantic so far has been slower (possibly due to the cooler subtropics, which will end up benefiting activity in the long run).

2016 and 2017 were both Ninas yea and both were the most active in July before slowly tapering off.

2020 and 2021 had active stretches too - those were just in late July/early August rather than right now.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT.

. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the southern
coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of
Mexico over the weekend while the disturbance moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 95E is up