Does the GFS have a problem with getting basins or MJOs stuck in one state and refusing to correctly model changes in favorability and MJO phase?
2022 EPAC Season
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Does the GFS have a problem with getting basins or MJOs stuck in one state and refusing to correctly model changes in favorability and MJO phase?
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
aspen wrote:
Does the GFS have a problem with getting basins or MJOs stuck in one state and refusing to correctly model changes in favorability and MJO phase?
Yes though I don’t think that’s the problem here. It also has been theorized to have issues with monsoon trough breakdowns.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Looks like EPS also wants the party to continue, so probably not just a GFS issue. There is a good possibility of 2 more systems.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
It's quite honestly very impressive to see how the EPAC is doing this in a La Nina state while the WPAC and Atlantic remain quiet, especially the former. I've never seen anything like this happen since I started tracking storms in detail in 2019; I know that's a limited sample size tho
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure has developed several hundred miles offshore of southern
Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible by this
weekend or early next week while it moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
An area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure has developed several hundred miles offshore of southern
Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible by this
weekend or early next week while it moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Category5Kaiju wrote:It's quite honestly very impressive to see how the EPAC is doing this in a La Nina state while the WPAC and Atlantic remain quiet, especially the former. I've never seen anything like this happen since I started tracking storms in detail in 2019; I know that's a limited sample size tho
Read something that showed some resemblance of an Atlantic Nina being supressive of waves into South America. Extrapolation one would think they would have a better shot at tracking over the EPAC in that path than usual. It's pretty uncommon to have a Pacific and Atlantic Nina, tendency being.. you guessed it third year Ninas. 2000 and 2011 have pretty comparable SSTA. North Pacific being a great match.
Source: https://cpaess.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/meetings/2020/presentations/kim-presentation.pdf
In short I'd guess that's the bar in terms of ACE for the EPAC between those two seasons.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
GFS seems to completely drop the 10/30 AOI and now developing canes in early August.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Back to back runs on the GFS with delayed EPAC development. 00z GFS actually has some Caribbean and GOM development. Looks like its EPAC bias is slowly phasing out with each run. That being said, there is still a good chance for another system before August.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
This is why you look at the ensemble runs as well which still has activity in the last week of July.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Ntxw wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:It's quite honestly very impressive to see how the EPAC is doing this in a La Nina state while the WPAC and Atlantic remain quiet, especially the former. I've never seen anything like this happen since I started tracking storms in detail in 2019; I know that's a limited sample size tho
Read something that showed some resemblance of an Atlantic Nina being supressive of waves into South America. Extrapolation one would think they would have a better shot at tracking over the EPAC in that path than usual. It's pretty uncommon to have a Pacific and Atlantic Nina, tendency being.. you guessed it third year Ninas. 2000 and 2011 have pretty comparable SSTA. North Pacific being a great match.
https://i.imgur.com/Q3Pqy7K.png
https://i.imgur.com/hLkZWsx.png
https://i.imgur.com/OKq1Zd1.png
https://i.imgur.com/XTS2iFw.png
Source: https://cpaess.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/meetings/2020/presentations/kim-presentation.pdf
In short I'd guess that's the bar in terms of ACE for the EPAC between those two seasons.
First off all, there’s no Atlantic Niña right now at least yet though I would not be surprised if one occurs fairly soon. SST’s near the equator in the Atlantic are running near average. It also tends to lift the ITCZ northward, which limits early season activity in the ATL due to its proximity to the SAL, but if in association of a +AMM, weakens trades off of Africa and is linked with a stronger WAM. Most tropical waves make it to the EPAC regardless this time of year and even if they don’t the monsoon trough can act as a genesis source especially under the right intraseasonal base state.
With that said, anecdotally, the EPAC monsoon trough seems more equatorial than usual for a +AMO despite the -SPMM (perhaps because the equator is fairly warm), which is giving the systems more time over warm SSTs. La Niña shifting genesis further east has also helped for similar reasons. Reminds me a lot of the La Niña setups from the last -AMO, particularly in the 1970s.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Yellow Evan wrote:First off all, there’s no Atlantic Niña right now at least yet though I would not be surprised if one occurs fairly soon. SST’s near the equator in the Atlantic are running near average. It also tends to lift the ITCZ northward, which limits early season activity in the ATL due to its proximity to the SAL, but if in association of a +AMM, weakens trades off of Africa and is linked with a stronger WAM. Most tropical waves make it to the EPAC regardless this time of year and even if they don’t the monsoon trough can act as a genesis source especially under the right intraseasonal base state.
With that said, anecdotally, the EPAC monsoon trough seems more equatorial than usual for a +AMO despite the -SPMM (perhaps because the equator is fairly warm), which is giving the systems more time over warm SSTs. La Niña shifting genesis further east has also helped for similar reasons. Reminds me a lot of the La Niña setups from the last -AMO, particularly in the 1970s.
It's very nice to see CFSv2 page from NOAA incorporate the Atlantic Nino forecasts and can only help with future predictability, more tools! You are correct it's currently not one but it is skewed cooler than the past several seasons, so I treated as trending in that direction specifically for ASO.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Ntxw wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:First off all, there’s no Atlantic Niña right now at least yet though I would not be surprised if one occurs fairly soon. SST’s near the equator in the Atlantic are running near average. It also tends to lift the ITCZ northward, which limits early season activity in the ATL due to its proximity to the SAL, but if in association of a +AMM, weakens trades off of Africa and is linked with a stronger WAM. Most tropical waves make it to the EPAC regardless this time of year and even if they don’t the monsoon trough can act as a genesis source especially under the right intraseasonal base state.
With that said, anecdotally, the EPAC monsoon trough seems more equatorial than usual for a +AMO despite the -SPMM (perhaps because the equator is fairly warm), which is giving the systems more time over warm SSTs. La Niña shifting genesis further east has also helped for similar reasons. Reminds me a lot of the La Niña setups from the last -AMO, particularly in the 1970s.
It's very nice to see CFSv2 page from NOAA incorporate the Atlantic Nino forecasts and can only help with future predictability, more tools! You are correct it's currently not one but it is skewed cooler than the past several seasons, so I treated as trending in that direction specifically for ASO.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html
Didn’t know they were doing that. On another note, this model forecast is kinda hilarious, they got all bases covered lol
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
skyline385 wrote:Ntxw wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:First off all, there’s no Atlantic Niña right now at least yet though I would not be surprised if one occurs fairly soon. SST’s near the equator in the Atlantic are running near average. It also tends to lift the ITCZ northward, which limits early season activity in the ATL due to its proximity to the SAL, but if in association of a +AMM, weakens trades off of Africa and is linked with a stronger WAM. Most tropical waves make it to the EPAC regardless this time of year and even if they don’t the monsoon trough can act as a genesis source especially under the right intraseasonal base state.
With that said, anecdotally, the EPAC monsoon trough seems more equatorial than usual for a +AMO despite the -SPMM (perhaps because the equator is fairly warm), which is giving the systems more time over warm SSTs. La Niña shifting genesis further east has also helped for similar reasons. Reminds me a lot of the La Niña setups from the last -AMO, particularly in the 1970s.
It's very nice to see CFSv2 page from NOAA incorporate the Atlantic Nino forecasts and can only help with future predictability, more tools! You are correct it's currently not one but it is skewed cooler than the past several seasons, so I treated as trending in that direction specifically for ASO.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html
Didn’t know they were doing that. On another note, this model forecast is kinda hilarious, they got all bases covered lol
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220721/4f0c464d27d44d902cb0fefb7cd0a584.jpg
It's a fairly new feature and not sure of the skill scores . There isn't even a real designation that sets standards what values are needed for an 'Atl Nino/Nina' as far as I know. Its value is looking at the trends longer term.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Yellow Evan wrote:This is why you look at the ensemble runs as well which still has activity in the last week of July.
They show a weak TC for the most part. Which is very possible.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:This is why you look at the ensemble runs as well which still has activity in the last week of July.
They show a weak TC for the most part. Which is very possible.
Yes but they're of lower resolution than the operational so that's to be expected. The op GFS reminds me a bit of some of its pre-Darby and Estelle runs when the GFS dropped development for a little while due to showing the AEW interacting with the monsoon trough and becoming elongated and in both those cases, the GFS eventually brought it back and the system developed. This might not happen this go around but as long as this stays at a low latitude, it warrants keeping an eye on.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Actually 12z GFS never breaks down the monsoon trough from the 10/30 so losing confidence in that now.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
GFS now has only one developing at long range and has abandoned those 3-4 ones.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Euro forms the 10/30 AOI.
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