2022 EPAC Season

[Category5Kaiju]

So the party that EPAC has been thru will be over after Frank is gone?

Looking more probable at the moment, yes. I think what we saw in June and July was basically the EPAC trying to "cram in" all of its main activity before more unfavorable conditions inevitably set up in the basin

[cycloneye]

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted with a small area of
low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Some slight additional development with this
system is possible over the next day or two before it is forecast to
interact and be absorbed by a larger low pressure system located to
its east later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

2022 season as of July 26 is ahead of the normal average.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1551946670375546880

[captainbarbossa19]

Not sure exactly why there seems to be talk of how fast this season is progressing almost as if it's unprecedented. 2021 had Hilda forming by late July and 2017 saw Irwin by late July. Just like this year, both those years were not Nino years. Obviously the Nina ongoing is stronger than both those years, but this activity really is not super surprising to me.

[zzh]

Number of NS is not a good metric.

[Yellow Evan]

Not sure exactly why there seems to be talk of how fast this season is progressing almost as if it's unprecedented. 2021 had Hilda forming by late July and 2017 saw Irwin by late July. Just like this year, both those years were not Nino years. Obviously the Nina ongoing is stronger than both those years, but this activity really is not super surprising to me.

Look at the ACE.

[Landy]

Not sure exactly why there seems to be talk of how fast this season is progressing almost as if it's unprecedented. 2021 had Hilda forming by late July and 2017 saw Irwin by late July. Just like this year, both those years were not Nino years. Obviously the Nina ongoing is stronger than both those years, but this activity really is not super surprising to me.

2022 is quite a ways ahead of 2021 in terms of ACE. For context, the average ACE at this point is 38.7. Last year saw around 36 ACE around this time, while this year is currently at 64 ACE and rising again thanks to Frank.

[cycloneye]

Number of NS is not a good metric.

Looks like he is going with ACE that is way ahead of normal. Normal for July 26 is 38.7 and 2022 has 64.0.

[Ntxw]

98E kind of came out of nowhere though it will likely be effected by Frank's envelope eventually. Point being here that TCG seems to be coming easy with quality waves. After they get organized can be hit or miss. Everything wants to spin.

[Kingarabian]

If it weren't for a rare crossover in Bonnie, ACE would be near normal. Conditions are as I expect them to be with frequent -CCKWs and some La Nina pause. Wouldn't rule out 100 ACE this year.

[captainbarbossa19]

If it weren't for a rare crossover in Bonnie, ACE would be near normal. Conditions are as I expect them to be with frequent -CCKWs and some La Nina pause. Wouldn't rule out 100 ACE this year.

That is a good point. If you exclude Bonnie, ACE isn't that crazy. I think 2017 had around 100 ACE although that wasn't a Nina season.

[skyline385]

If it weren't for a rare crossover in Bonnie, ACE would be near normal. Conditions are as I expect them to be with frequent -CCKWs and some La Nina pause. Wouldn't rule out 100 ACE this year.

That is a good point. If you exclude Bonnie, ACE isn't that crazy. I think 2017 had around 100 ACE although that wasn't a Nina season.

Just saying, if Dorian 2019 did not have a center relocation then NATL 2019 would have had around 85 ACE instead of 130 ACE. If we take out Irma from 2017 then NATL 2017 would have an ACE of 160 instead of 225.

What i am trying to say is that we shouldn’t be just ignoring one storm out of a season, it takes just one to define a season for some people.

[Yellow Evan]

If it weren't for a rare crossover in Bonnie, ACE would be near normal. Conditions are as I expect them to be with frequent -CCKWs and some La Nina pause. Wouldn't rule out 100 ACE this year.

That is a good point. If you exclude Bonnie, ACE isn't that crazy. I think 2017 had around 100 ACE although that wasn't a Nina season.

It was FWIW but also a different era with persistent +PDO/PMM.

[Astromanía]

If it weren't for a rare crossover in Bonnie, ACE would be near normal. Conditions are as I expect them to be with frequent -CCKWs and some La Nina pause. Wouldn't rule out 100 ACE this year.

Well Bonnie didn't have the conditions for being something strong in the Atlantic, it was the Epac who give it's power, in fact Bonnie in the Atlantic was just a tropical wave that developed before entering the EPAC basin but it wasn't something significant there

[cycloneye]

This basin continues to give birth to storms at a fast pace despite La Niña. #7 forms.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1552396307695685632

[Astromanía]

2017 looks like a good analog

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1552722776003420160

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1552746729912532995

[Kingarabian]

If it weren't for a rare crossover in Bonnie, ACE would be near normal. Conditions are as I expect them to be with frequent -CCKWs and some La Nina pause. Wouldn't rule out 100 ACE this year.

That is a good point. If you exclude Bonnie, ACE isn't that crazy. I think 2017 had around 100 ACE although that wasn't a Nina season.

Just saying, if Dorian 2019 did not have a center relocation then NATL 2019 would have had around 85 ACE instead of 130 ACE. If we take out Irma from 2017 then NATL 2017 would have an ACE of 160 instead of 225.

What i am trying to say is that we shouldn’t be just ignoring one storm out of a season, it takes just one to define a season for some people.

Systems that the EPAC attempts to develop are usually AEWs crossing over. In La Nina they almost always struggle to become TCs because by the time when Easterly shear relaxes, theyre too far NW and face cooler water and dry air.

My point is that in regards to the above average ACE, it is misleading in a way that it shows the EPAC being very favorable despite the basin actually behaving close to normal. The EPAC didn't develop Bonnie by itself. It nearly crossed over as a minimal hurricane giving it a massive headstart. It struggled for a little bit but maintained its vigorous vortex, allowing it to receive EPAC hurricane characteristics earlier than expected, which let it succeed before moving over cooler waters.
.

[Ntxw]

EPAC is now at 70 units of ACE.