2022 EPAC Season

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Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#321 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 21, 2022 2:32 pm

I think the next AOi has a good shot at becoming the next named system regardless of what the globals are showing. But the models are trending towards showing this burst of activity ending soon.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#322 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 21, 2022 3:27 pm

GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles still have TCG in the long range. I think we got a couple systems left in this burst before the tropics calm down.
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2022 EPAC Season

#323 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jul 21, 2022 3:54 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I think the next AOi has a good shot at becoming the next named system regardless of what the globals are showing. But the models are trending towards showing this burst of activity ending soon.

Todays weekly went up in activity for first week of August, it’s predicting a drop in activity after mid-August. Looks like the party continues.

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#324 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 22, 2022 6:55 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 22 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles offshore of
southern Mexico have weakened since yesterday in association with
an elongated trough of low pressure. Development, if any, is
expected to be slow to occur as the trough moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop in a few days several
hundred miles offshore of the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible
thereafter while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#325 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 22, 2022 11:21 am

Models back to consistently developing the first AOI. Looks to be a sheared system for the first 5 days of its life. Possible it becomes a hurricane down the line, but the models are giving this system a track closer to the Nina shear, similar to Estelle and many other past systems that struggled.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#326 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 22, 2022 1:26 pm

The 10/10 is already by 105W. GFS has TCG by 95W so it’s the second AOI. Second AOI is currently by 89 W by El Salvador.

Image

Image

There isn’t really any “Niña shear” here. The second AOI might have the best upper level setup of any TC we see here which considering we are about to get MJO support for the first time since mid-June, and we are near the peak of the hurricane season in this basin assuming the Atlantic wakes up and steals the rising motion and some AEW.

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#327 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 22, 2022 6:19 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jul 22 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A surface trough continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur as the trough moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend
a few hundred miles south of extreme southeastern Mexico. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form by the middle of next week while the system moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#328 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 22, 2022 8:14 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:The 10/10 is already by 105W. GFS has TCG by 95W so it’s the second AOI. Second AOI is currently by 89 W by El Salvador.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1000103620211122286/IMG_0711.png

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1000103669880074240/IMG_0712.png

There isn’t really any “Niña shear” here. The second AOI might have the best upper level setup of any TC we see here which considering we are about to get MJO support for the first time since mid-June, and we are near the peak of the hurricane season in this basin assuming the Atlantic wakes up and steals the rising motion and some AEW.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/maps/waves/global/28.gif


Models have been notorious in over doing intensity/under doing shear in this area the past couple years, this year included.

Simulated IR which goes out 4.5 days on the GFS screams easterly shear anyway.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#329 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 22, 2022 11:25 pm

Image

Less conducive upper level setup compared to 18z with the 0/40. The eastern system looks boom though setup wise on this run.

Image

GFS now showing something near the CPAC.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#330 Postby MHC Tracking » Sat Jul 23, 2022 5:00 am

Yellow Evan wrote:https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1000255213741035620/IMG_0735.png

Less conducive upper level setup compared to 18z with the 0/40. The eastern system looks boom though setup wise on this run.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1000254661045006356/IMG_0734.png

GFS now showing something near the CPAC.

I feel like we had this exact same story with the former 0/30 and the current 0/50...stronger system appears on models and gains support, while the primary weaker AOI downtrends into a low. I get the feeling it'll be rinse and repeat here.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#331 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 23, 2022 6:29 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that the surface
trough located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast
of southwestern Mexico has become less defined while producing
limited shower activity. Therefore, the development of this system
is no longer anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

2. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the next day or
two a few hundred miles south of extreme southeastern Mexico.
Gradual development is expected thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while the system
moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Roberts/Brown
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#332 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 23, 2022 12:42 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Guatemala are associated with a tropical
wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system over the next several days, and
a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week.
The disturbance is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to
15 mph remaining well south of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#333 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Jul 23, 2022 2:16 pm

12z GFS peaks the 10/70 AOI at 979mb and then has a major hurricane form behind it. Not really sure how realistic that is but maybe we can get a decent hurricane out of this before the Atlantic takes over in a few weeks.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#334 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 24, 2022 6:43 am

CMC and ECMWF and their ensembles seem pretty unenthusiastic aside from the current AOI. GFS is the inverse still. I don’t like the lack of consensus here still after several days and am definitely less bullish on this MJO outbreak than before.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#335 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 24, 2022 6:50 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased but remains
disorganized in association with a tropical wave located a couple of
hundred miles off the coast of southeastern Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of this week. The disturbance is forecast to move generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well south of the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#336 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:54 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southeastern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms are starting to show signs of organization
associated with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles
south off the coast of southeastern Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development, and this system is likely
to become a tropical depression by the middle part of this week.
This system is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to 15 mph,
remaining well south of the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#337 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 24, 2022 1:14 pm

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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#338 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:22 am

Models showing 97E struggling quite a bit. They're also realizing it's not 2018 anymore.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#339 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:43 am

MJO is moving too fast for it to linger around and give us multiple TC’s. A sign of the strong La Niña atmospheric state.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season

#340 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:46 am

So the party that EPAC has been thru will be over after Frank is gone?
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