2022 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Euro has been pretty iffy about a system after Estelle. However all models show a WNW track away from Mexico which would at least help it avoid most of the NE shear in that area.

GFS still thinks it's 1990.

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF barely showed Darby and Estelle and missed like the entire second half of last season. It’s not particularly credible anymore.

[Kingarabian]

Its still a long way out. I don't know if the new AOI is the system that the GFS/Euro/CMC show in 8-10 days.

Edit: Nevermind it is.

[Yellow Evan]

I will say this is not a good sign:



GFS has shown better alignment at 12z but still.

[skyline385]

ECMWF barely showed Darby and Estelle and missed like the entire second half of last season. It’s not particularly credible anymore.

Euro is the most conservative right now yea, missed a bunch of storms in the last few years (cough Laura cough). But if the Euro does manage to show something then there is a good chance it’s happening.

[cycloneye]

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1549139820844294145

[Kingarabian]

CMC keeping the new AOI pretty close to Mexico. Doesn't look promising.

[cycloneye]

Interesting discussion about the active EPAC.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1549345793509052416




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1549384365016338432




 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1549409467204153344




 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1549411178954178560

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1549352374090600448

[cycloneye]

1. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles
offshore of Central America and southern Mexico in several days.
Some gradual development of this system is possible by this weekend
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Papin

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1549626373123084288

[Kingarabian]

Euro does show development but keeps both systems weak. After seeing what happened to Estelle, that's an open possibility.

[cycloneye]

Big change. 12z GFS does not develop the 0/30 AOI and develops on long range close to the coast of Mexico two systems.

[SFLcane]

Big change. 12z GFS does not develop the 0/30 AOI and only develops on long range close to the coast of Mexico.

End is near maybe for the epac. Also bone dry in the Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Big change. 12z GFS does not develop the 0/30 AOI and only develops on long range close to the coast of Mexico.

End is near maybe for the epac. Also bone dry in the Atlantic

Not so fast.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

This oncoming CCKW will likely foster development for another storm or two before eventually propagating into the Atlantic and Africa.

[Category5Kaiju]

Big change. 12z GFS does not develop the 0/30 AOI and only develops on long range close to the coast of Mexico.

End is near maybe for the epac. Also bone dry in the Atlantic

Not so fast.

https://i.imgur.com/WwFdsXC.png

Yeah idk about that, seems a bit "spurious convection-based" if you had to ask me lol

The day the GFS is updated so that its massive Central American convection bias is reduced is the day I will party.

[SFLcane]

The party continues...

[captainbarbossa19]

The party continues...

https://i.postimg.cc/4xLCh8G5/gfs.gif

Just my opinion, but I think the EPAC will see one more system before things shut down temporarily. The second system the GFS is showing is so far out, it could easily be dropped. It seems like it often has a difficult time dealing with MJO changes. Also, more stability will be moving into the EPAC near August 1st.