2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[WiscoWx02]

Models are probably adjusting to the rising motion shifting from the EPAC to the Atlantic.

For the sake of all the forecasts in early August and for Phil Klotzbach and his team…I certainly hope so. Don’t want to see what happened to them in 2013 happen again.

Not comparing this year to 2013 but I’m sure you all know what I mean.

[Hammy]

I’ve said before, if this season does end up busting, the strong and 3rd year La Niña is to blame (especially 3rd year). Data is very limited with 3rd year La Niña , but the the few years we have produced a slightly above average to below average season (Ace wise) .. In terms of Strong La Niña, usually above average seasons that are below hyperactivity

Yeah historically 3rd year La Nina’d aren’t overly friendly to the Atlantic that’s for sure.

2000 was a good example of this. Activity was pretty uneven, and while it started earlier with the Cabo Verde storms, we had nothing the first third of the season save for two depressions in June.

Alberto was the only really long lived storm in August--Chris and Debby were taken out by the TUTT (most of us remember the Debby forecast debacle) and Beryl underperformed in the Gulf, and then we had another nearly three weeks of nothing--which only ended with two low-end Cat 1 hurricanes--before getting to the real meat of the season, which didn't start until September 21 when Helene was named and Isaac formed, and that was when we got the real meat of the season, which lasted into late October.

Edit: forgot about Ernesto in early September that lasted two days, also taken out by the TUTT.

CFS output aside from the one sour run seems to be showing something similar--it's not entirely out of the question to go the rest of August (or at least close to) without another tropical storm, at least in the MDR, and then there's two distinct bursts of activity--one ending in mid-September, the other starting in late September and lasting into October

[aspen]

I’ve said before, if this season does end up busting, the strong and 3rd year La Niña is to blame (especially 3rd year). Data is very limited with 3rd year La Niña , but the the few years we have produced a slightly above average to below average season (Ace wise) .. In terms of Strong La Niña, usually above average seasons that are below hyperactivity

Yeah historically 3rd year La Nina’d aren’t overly friendly to the Atlantic that’s for sure.

2000 was a good example of this. Activity was pretty uneven, and while it started earlier with the Cabo Verde storms, we had nothing the first third of the season save for two depressions in June.

Alberto was the only really long lived storm in August--Chris and Debby were taken out by the TUTT (most of us remember the Debby forecast debacle) and Beryl underperformed in the Gulf, and then we had another nearly three weeks of nothing--which only ended with two low-end Cat 1 hurricanes--before getting to the real meat of the season, which didn't start until September 21 when Helene was named and Isaac formed, and that was when we got the real meat of the season, which lasted into late October.

Edit: forgot about Ernesto in early September that lasted two days, also taken out by the TUTT.

CFS output aside from the one sour run seems to be showing something similar--it's not entirely out of the question to go the rest of August (or at least close to) without another tropical storm, at least in the MDR, and then there's two distinct bursts of activity--one ending in mid-September, the other starting in late September and lasting into October

It would be extremely abnormal for there to be zero NS in August. A strong third year Nina wouldn’t be able to explain that. The last time August had zero storms was in 1997, during a strong El Niño.

Maybe nothing forms in the MDR, but the entire basin being shut off for August would indicate some other negative factors we haven’t noticed yet. I’m doubtful my vote of 4 NS verifies, though.

[Hammy]

Yeah historically 3rd year La Nina’d aren’t overly friendly to the Atlantic that’s for sure.

2000 was a good example of this. Activity was pretty uneven, and while it started earlier with the Cabo Verde storms, we had nothing the first third of the season save for two depressions in June.

Alberto was the only really long lived storm in August--Chris and Debby were taken out by the TUTT (most of us remember the Debby forecast debacle) and Beryl underperformed in the Gulf, and then we had another nearly three weeks of nothing--which only ended with two low-end Cat 1 hurricanes--before getting to the real meat of the season, which didn't start until September 21 when Helene was named and Isaac formed, and that was when we got the real meat of the season, which lasted into late October.

Edit: forgot about Ernesto in early September that lasted two days, also taken out by the TUTT.

CFS output aside from the one sour run seems to be showing something similar--it's not entirely out of the question to go the rest of August (or at least close to) without another tropical storm, at least in the MDR, and then there's two distinct bursts of activity--one ending in mid-September, the other starting in late September and lasting into October

It would be extremely abnormal for there to be zero NS in August. A strong third year Nina wouldn’t be able to explain that. The last time August had zero storms was in 1997, during a strong El Niño.

Maybe nothing forms in the MDR, but the entire basin being shut off for August would indicate some other negative factors we haven’t noticed yet. I’m doubtful my vote of 4 NS verifies, though.

1961 also had nothing in August. I'm not saying it will happen, but there's probably a good 20-30% chance--given it appears the waves will exit farther north than normal (based on the models it appears there's still too much interaction with the abnormally strong monsoon trough) the chances are at least higher than in normal, especially factoring in how difficult a time the subtropics have had at producing storms.

[Blown Away]

Next 7 days will tell us a lot, if the switch is going to flip the GFS/EURO has to start sniffing out development in the 10-16 day range starting in the next few days. If we have to wait until Sept I predict we get maybe 5-7 hurricanes and @15 total storms.

[tolakram]

Neither will do anything in the 10 to 15 in my opinion, it will only show up under 10 days. We've seen this before and I think it will be the same this year. Look more west and under 10 days.

[cycloneye]

FYI= Made the September poll for the members to vote until August 31. 10 members are on the driver seat between 0 and two named storms in the August poll.

[Blown Away]

For a few days the GFS keeps showing a strong TW moving through NE Caribbean, Bahamas, and near SFL @Aug 27th. A few ensembles show a Cat 2/3 hurricane on some runs. I think this is an area to focus on in the MDR.

[Stormybajan]

A week from now will tell us a lot. August 20th is ringing of the Bell date aka the start of the PEAK season. If in 7 days the models are still as they are right now, some very serious questions will need to be asked. Also I know most people hate ACE but not me, idk lol ACE to me can be a reliable method of looking back at previous seasons and seeing how intense and long lasting the tropical systems that particular year were. I know the land impacting storms matter most but I would LOVE another Hurricane Sam in 2022 to stare at, just as a reminder that the Atlantic can produce monsters like any other basin when conditions are perfect

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1558462470049726464

[AtlanticWind]

What we havent seen yet is many of those massive waves rolling off Africa, dont know what the reason is
but expect that will change shortly.

[AtlanticWind]

Also sticking to the idea we will see a massive switch flip in about a week.
Betting a big peak season..... we shall see

[skyline385]

What we havent seen yet is many of those massive waves rolling off Africa, dont know what the reason is
but expect that will change shortly.

There are tons of massive waves propagating through Africa, the issue is that the dry air kills them off as soon as they get into the Atlantic.



 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1558214699954601987

[Hammy]

Also sticking to the idea we will see a massive switch flip in about a week.
Betting a big peak season..... we shall see

Orientation of the monsoon trough over Africa needs to change first--that'll be a slower process than the switch flip. I still feel we'll be largely quiet (save for any short-notice homegrown system that might pop up) until early September and then things will take off after that.

[ThomasW]

Models are probably adjusting to the rising motion shifting from the EPAC to the Atlantic.

For the sake of all the forecasts in early August and for Phil Klotzbach and his team…I certainly hope so. Don’t want to see what happened to them in 2013 happen again.

Not comparing this year to 2013 but I’m sure you all know what I mean.

Probably won't be quite that bad of a bust but <100 ACE would not shock me at all. Floor is maybe 80, ceiling 140

[ThomasW]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1558401905331769344

The MJO has arrived and there isn’t even a messy monsoon trough to speak of over the Atlantic. I’m honestly at a loss…by the end of the week, I think we are going to find out if the even the near average hurricane forecast are in jeopardy or not.

Maybe something like 11/4/2

[WiscoWx02]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1558401905331769344

The MJO has arrived and there isn’t even a messy monsoon trough to speak of over the Atlantic. I’m honestly at a loss…by the end of the week, I think we are going to find out if the even the near average hurricane forecast are in jeopardy or not.

Maybe something like 11/4/2

You mean 2015? The year with a super El Nino? Of course you could be right, who knows, either this season is going to bust majorily or be the ultimate troll…we shall see.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow, it sure feels so nice yet strange to be back on this forum after 2 weeks...thanks so much for the support folks; my health is still not 100% perfect but has definitely been improving recently. I'll hopefully be more frequent on here by around the coming weeks or so.

Anyways, so I've been briefly combing over what I've missed out on so far and....all I have to say is, yikes. There's clearly some huge head-scratching and confusion about what is happening. We're just 6 days away from the bell-ringing date, and by then it would surely be interesting to see what models have to say by then. At this point I am starting to think that NS count is highly likely going to be lower than 20 (probably 15-17 as a reasonable max estimate); however, we are still nevertheless far from the dangerous months of September and October (and by then, one would plausibly think that the La Nina forcing and climo would help to charge the Atlantic).

Now here's what I think: I am still on the belief that we will see at least a couple NSs form by August 31. Now it's really important to understand that especially in a period like August, quiet periods like this don't necessarily mean "bust" season. As we have seen with years like 1961, 1988 (seems like hammy likes this year), 1998, 1999, and 2019, August quiet periods (and I mean quiet as in zero NSs, not weak TSs) do tend to correlate with heightened periods of activity thereafter. On a rather unusual note, 2013 was actually featuring NSs in August; clearly, what we're seeing now is exactly not that . Now it remains to be seen what this year will do, but imho, seeing a season that takes off late month (especially when the EPAC should surely be dead by then with the sinking air) would not be all that surprising.

Now I believe it looks like one of the moderators has recently shared the tweet, but Dylan Federico actually makes a very intriguing point that I cannot help but agree with, at least for now. With how dead the WPAC is and how the EPAC has really started to wind down, it would be expected that the Atlantic would eventually take over and dominate. Now if that fails to happen, then we're basically talking about all 3 major Northern Hemisphere basins being quiet by the month's end or so. Is this even physically possible? That's a question that I personally have, as I am under the assumption that air would need to rise somewhere in the tropics in a given year, especially in August of all months. Judging by history, such an event would be rather exceptionally odd, as it seems like the last time in history a storm of at least Cat 4 strength failed to form in August across all 3 of those basins was in 1991. I mean, it doesn't seem like the WPAC and EPAC produced any beautiful majors as of this month either.

Anyways, the point of my long rant is, I think it's still worthwhile to stay vigilant, as you may never know as the models would simply be trying to adjust to the incoming favorable CCKW/MJO for the Atlantic (at least based on the recent GFS runs, it seems like the WPAC and EPAC are essentially shut down).

[Blown Away]

https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1558462470049726464

Now we are only half way in August, but the only year I could find since 2000 was 2013 that had as dry of an August in SFL as current August 2022. Not that SFL rainfall speaks for the basin’s activity, but it is indicative of dust and the lack of moist TW’s moving through.

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1558462470049726464

Now we are only half way in August, but the only year I could find since 2000 was 2013 that had as dry of an August in SFL as current August 2022. Not that SFL rainfall speaks for the basin’s activity, but it is indicative of dust and the lack of moist TW’s moving through.

Dust has nothing to do a lot of times with an extended period of dry wx.
Is dry the mid level conditions that keep coming down from the Atlantic mid latitudes into the MDR and then track westward with or without dust being present in the lower atmosphere.
Even since Tuesday it has been fairly dusty here in the Orlando area but it has been fairly wet all this time.