2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Spacecoast]

"2022 is a very interesting year that will likely be studied in more detail.... "
Still waiting on the studies that explain what happened to the backend of last season.

Perhaps SON is the new ASO.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1560636856513040384

[weeniepatrol]

The next 10 days are going to make or break this season. If we don’t see an uptick in activity in the deep tropics by the end of the month, then the uptick probably won’t come. I’m not aware of any active season that starting going after September 1st.

2001? 9 hurricanes, 4 majors, all after the second week of September

[Steve]

"2022 is a very interesting year that will likely be studied in more detail.... "
Still waiting on the studies that explain what happened to the backend of last season.

Perhaps SON is the new ASO.

MJO backed off. Models showed it was headed for 2/3 but didn’t get there. Last years signaling was important.

[tolakram]

I'm still focused on the western half of the basin, CV storms are never that frequent and looking to the east to start activity is rarely correct. All these waves are making it further and further west and I do believe we only get strong reliable development signals at 5 days or less.

You know what will happen if we expect to get out of August with no development.

[skyline385]

CPC continuing to track the potential MDR system.

[Emmett_Brown]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1560978708680347649

[MarioProtVI]

I’m starting to have serious doubts this season is anything active. With 04L likely busting and the models being pessimistic about future activity I’m wondering if the peak will be anything notable at all. 2 ACE in late August is just baffling. Something is definitely up that is making this season act like 2013 in a way.

[Kingarabian]

If we get through August without a NS then yeah probably. Not totally unexpected considering the way 3rd year Nina's go. Models show three named systems before September though.

[WiscoWx02]

I’m starting to have serious doubts this season is anything active. With 04L likely busting and the models being pessimistic about future activity I’m wondering if the peak will be anything notable at all. 2 ACE in late August is just baffling. Something is definitely up that is making this season act like 2013 in a way.

If we are talking ACE then yeah I have jumped ship on this being an active season. Below average is the most likely outcome at this point because I really don’t see these conditions abating any time soon if at all. Now it would be foolish to say that we can’t still see a major impacting storm hit the US in September or October…I think we’ll see at least something big this year but regarding ACE…yeah would be shocked if we get near 100 units at this juncture. Of course, ACE is a metric but doesn’t tell 30% of the story. A category 5 landfall in Florida, Texas, or Cuba can turn the season memorable real fast. I could easily mention a certain year that had a devastating hurricane hit Florida and was pretty much dead the rest of the time regardless of if it’s an analogue matching this years environmental conditions or not

[AtlanticWind]

Based on the forecasts and relatively high SSTs I am still expecting at least 3 majors but
more likely 4 or 5 .
90% of majors occur after todays date.

[psyclone]

Happy bell ring to everyone. It's oddly but delightfully quiet out there right now and...as boring as it is for weather fanatics the lack of stress and carefree beach weather is hard to argue with. Enjoy it while we have it..

[Hammy]

I’m starting to have serious doubts this season is anything active. With 04L likely busting and the models being pessimistic about future activity I’m wondering if the peak will be anything notable at all. 2 ACE in late August is just baffling. Something is definitely up that is making this season act like 2013 in a way.

04L didn't bust though, none of the models ever developed it and the hurricane center made that clear. They issued warnings because the possibility was there that we could have an undetected spin-up, but nothing busted.

[Hurricaneman]

Happy bell ring to everyone. It's oddly but delightfully quiet out there right now and...as boring as it is for weather fanatics the lack of stress and carefree beach weather is hard to argue with. Enjoy it while we have it..

I feel like within the next week things won’t be boring anymore

[Hammy]

Reposting from the 04L thread. The high was too strong to really allow the max surface vorticity to stay over water that long (pretty much tracked up the middle of Central America and into Mexico) but not strong enough to reach the East Pacific as many prior waves had, a sign that things are trending, albeit slowly, to being more favorable. If this had moved straight north, or perhaps east of north, from yesterday's position then we'd be talking about a tropical storm today.

[chaser1]

I’m starting to have serious doubts this season is anything active. With 04L likely busting and the models being pessimistic about future activity I’m wondering if the peak will be anything notable at all. 2 ACE in late August is just baffling. Something is definitely up that is making this season act like 2013 in a way.

If we are talking ACE then yeah I have jumped ship on this being an active season. Below average is the most likely outcome at this point because I really don’t see these conditions abating any time soon if at all. Now it would be foolish to say that we can’t still see a major impacting storm hit the US in September or October…I think we’ll see at least something big this year but regarding ACE…yeah would be shocked if we get near 100 units at this juncture. Of course, ACE is a metric but doesn’t tell 30% of the story. A category 5 landfall in Florida, Texas, or Cuba can turn the season memorable real fast. I could easily mention a certain year that had a devastating hurricane hit Florida and was pretty much dead the rest of the time regardless of if it’s an analogue matching this years environmental conditions or not

ACE has never instilled anxiety about near-term vacations, weddings, school closures or business operations. ACE has never caused TS or Hurricane Warnings resulting in many thousands to evacuate. ACE has never impacted crops, floods, landslides, homes to be destroyed, injuries or deaths.
On the other hand, ACE might suggest how optimal conditions were (or were not) for any given period of time. Therefore unless July/August ACE is somehow used as a reliable tool to forecast September/October ACE, lets take THAT measure off the table for the moment.

[chaser1]

If I had a dollar for every dead horse that I've had to step over between April and now, I'd be rich. In the interest of these majestic animals, can we at least pause this senseless beating until perhaps September 20, whether or not 2022 will be a dead season, a below average with another "Andrew", an average year, or above average?

[Hammy]

Adding to my earlier post, the CMC has been consistently showing a Gulf system. While I know this isn't the models thread, it's noteworthy as it's following with what I said that the Western Caribbean waves are more and more able to make poleward movement further east. They've gone from going into the Pacific, to tracking down the middle of Central America, and the next ones look like they'll be able to miss land entirely (save for the Yucatan of course) before getting into the Gulf.

[tolakram]

I was looking over the 2017 threads and Irma models. This season has a lot of similar vibes. No Harvey, storms not in the right position, but similar favorable area just off the coast. Meanwhile both the GFS and Euro were running CV head fakes, each showing development, then shifting back to the next wave, up until Irma.

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
#92 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:13 am

it's 10 days away, but that may be far enough south such that it does not recurve

then again, this may be another WOLF! WOLF! Isn't this like the 9th CV cane the models have forecast this year?

Here's the Irma models thread, RL3A0 (I think) modified the first post to include most of the model runs, archived. This was before we started insisting that people always use image sites rather than direct links, so a lot of model runs were lost. This is 6 years ago, and models have improved ... maybe.

Just food for thought.

I'd also like to point out just how wrong some people were when models started to struggle, especially the GFS dropping the storm on a few runs.

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
#172 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 29, 2017 12:55 pm

I've lost track of how many times this season the GFS has fooled me showing a Tropical Atlantic hurricane many runs in a row only to drop it suddenly in just 1 run. The takeaway is despite the season peak just being less than 2 weeks away the Tropical Atlantic remains EXTREMELY unfavorable for whatever reasons.

The Euro was better but was also struggling with on and off conditions.

[Iceresistance]

I was looking over the 2017 threads and Irma models. This season has a lot of similar vibes. No Harvey, storms not in the right position, but similar favorable area just off the coast. Meanwhile both the GFS and Euro were running CV head fakes, each showing development, then shifting back to the next wave, up until Irma.

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
#92 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:13 am

it's 10 days away, but that may be far enough south such that it does not recurve

then again, this may be another WOLF! WOLF! Isn't this like the 9th CV cane the models have forecast this year?

Here's the Irma models thread, RL3A0 (I think) modified the first post to include most of the model runs, archived. This was before we started insisting that people always use image sites rather than direct links, so a lot of model runs were lost. This is 6 years ago, and models have improved ... maybe.

Just food for thought.

I'd also like to point out just how wrong some people were when models started to struggle, especially the GFS dropping the storm on a few runs.

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
#172 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 29, 2017 12:55 pm

I've lost track of how many times this season the GFS has fooled me showing a Tropical Atlantic hurricane many runs in a row only to drop it suddenly in just 1 run. The takeaway is despite the season peak just being less than 2 weeks away the Tropical Atlantic remains EXTREMELY unfavorable for whatever reasons.

The Euro was better but was also struggling with on and off conditions.

Yeah, I've noticed that too. 2017 had a mostly unfavorable Mid-August for CV Storms, but then came Irma.