2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3561 Postby zzzh » Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:53 pm

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:lol:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3562 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:56 pm



Watch as X becomes the 10th named storm and then another system forms in the deep tropics early next month.

Yeah, “wave breaking” can only do so much to hamper a La Nina year. Neutral or El Niño, maybe a different story. :sun:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3563 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:57 pm


Congrats for snapping the screenshot just before they updated Fiona to post-tropical :lol:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3564 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:07 pm

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3565 Postby 869MB » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:22 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:
869MB wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Your wish is my command!

https://i.postimg.cc/mktQXkYB/CFS2-JPEG.gif


As illustrated above, in mid-July, the CFS had one system affecting the Canadian Maritimes followed by another system heading towards Florida from the southeast during this general time period in late September. Not bad…not bad at all.


Yeah, I know s2k user Hammy has mentioned that it generally depicted a sharply backloaded with an onset delayed by a couple weeks relative to the climatological peak... very interesting indeed


For some reason I left this thread open in another browser since July with SFLcane’s post being the last one, so I decided to analyze that CFS run again, discovering the depiction it forecasted during this time was fairly accurate.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3566 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:25 am



What's the interesting part for me is half of the 8 has been the last 4 years.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3567 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:00 am

I'll never understand the seasonal bustcasting.

Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3568 Postby Teban54 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:03 am

weeniepatrol wrote:I'll never understand the seasonal bustcasting.

https://i.imgur.com/yNK3wJU.jpg

And storm bustcasting.

First Ian was supposed to be an Issac/Erika repeat and not even become a hurricane, at least until after Cuba. Then when it actually became one, it was thought to never reach Cat 2. :lol:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3569 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:29 am

don't really know what to say

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3570 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:24 am

weeniepatrol wrote:don't really know what to say

https://i.imgur.com/mMwlz49.gif


If I ever see another premature season cancel post ever, I'll just post that image in response without any words or context. :lol:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3571 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:26 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:don't really know what to say

https://i.imgur.com/mMwlz49.gif


If I ever see another premature season cancel post ever, I'll just post that image in response without any words or context. :lol:


I'm sure they'll come as soon as July '23
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3572 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:36 pm

I think we’ve all learned our lesson to not call any cool ENSO season a bust, even if it goes 60 days and all of August without a single named storm. This year was just abnormally delayed. Looks like 2022 will finish off in between the other 0/0/0 August seasons; it won’t get to the hyperactive levels of 1961, but it’s already far ahead of 1997.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3573 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:13 pm

aspen wrote:I think we’ve all learned our lesson to not call any cool ENSO season a bust, even if it goes 60 days and all of August without a single named storm. This year was just abnormally delayed. Looks like 2022 will finish off in between the other 0/0/0 August seasons; it won’t get to the hyperactive levels of 1961, but it’s already far ahead of 1997.



Barring Short Memory Syndrome. :wink:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3574 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:14 pm

aspen wrote:I think we’ve all learned our lesson to not call any cool ENSO season a bust, even if it goes 60 days and all of August without a single named storm. This year was just abnormally delayed. Looks like 2022 will finish off in between the other 0/0/0 August seasons; it won’t get to the hyperactive levels of 1961, but it’s already far ahead of 1997.


Ya, the couple of posts on Ian’s slow development you made in that thread as if it was part of some weird 2022 stuff going on is the easy thing to do when the developments aren’t what one would expect. That’s human nature. So is jumping the gun on thinking this season might be one of the slowest on records in a few posts back in late August and September. The volcano stuff was flying around along with wave breaking and other things.

I probably would have been right with you back a couple decades as a younger dude. Gotta let tropical seasons the time to make that call!
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3575 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:45 pm

How much do we want to bet that 2023 will feature yet another Cat 4 CONUS landfall? Especially in the GoM? :slime:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3576 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Sep 29, 2022 2:25 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:How much do we want to bet that 2023 will feature yet another Cat 4 CONUS landfall? Especially in the GoM? :slime:


Hoping for this extended La Nina to finally transition into some sort of warm-flavoured ENSO by then.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3577 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Sep 29, 2022 4:34 am

speaks for itself

Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3578 Postby WiscoWx02 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:29 am

I know it’s a bit soon and Ian is far from done with the US, but I don’t think we are gonna see much of a break here if the GEFS and EPS have anything to say about the matter Fortunately the wave coming off Africa both models really like recurves and is just an ACE producer but there are rumbles for something in the Caribbean down the line. I’m never gonna season cancel AGAIN. Never. This year had taught me A LOT. And I don’t think it’s anywhere near over yet tbh.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3579 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:41 am

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3580 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:54 am

weeniepatrol wrote:speaks for itself

https://i.imgur.com/MoQu2WB.png

Not to forget this uses 1991-2020 climo with an inflated number of active years. If 1951-2020 (like NOAA) or 1981-2010 (like previously) were used, which were both balanced between the +AMO and -AMO eras, we're probably near average in ACE now.
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