2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
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- skyline385
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2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Said almost a month ago during peak season bust forecasts that Caribbean is going to be the place to watch this season. There is just a lot of untapped OHC there and waves don’t have to deal with the wavebreaking or stability issues from warm mid latitudes seen in the MDR. Went with 2 majors in last month’s forecast for rest of season and now I think we might even get 3 or 4 by end of October.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Teban54 wrote:
Not to forget this uses 1991-2020 climo with an inflated number of active years. If 1951-2020 (like NOAA) or 1981-2010 (like previously) were used, which were both balanced between the +AMO and -AMO eras, we're probably near average in ACE now.
Great point.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
This chart with that climo shows that we're just barely below average now
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
One thing's for sure at this point: it's very unlikely that we will be seeing an October/November shutout like we did last year, with the absence of Atlantic Nino. I think we will be seeing a fairly active October, and maybe two storms or so in November. Given how warm the subtropics are, I actually think there's a remote but non-zero chance we see a NS somewhere there in December. In the end, I'm willing to bet that we will end this season with 15-17 NSs.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
NotSparta wrote:This chart with that climo shows that we're just barely below average now
https://i.imgur.com/BjJ3J0C.png
The normal curve is running much flatter now so a busy October will blow right past it easily.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Category5Kaiju wrote:One thing's for sure at this point: it's very unlikely that we will be seeing an October/November shutout like we did last year, with the absence of Atlantic Nino. I think we will be seeing a fairly active October, and maybe two storms or so in November. Given how warm the subtropics are, I actually think there's a remote but non-zero chance we see a NS somewhere there in December. In the end, I'm willing to bet that we will end this season with 15-17 NSs.
Atl Nino is clearly there
MJO amplifying through the Pacific. Not favorable for the Atlantic in October
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
zzzh wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:One thing's for sure at this point: it's very unlikely that we will be seeing an October/November shutout like we did last year, with the absence of Atlantic Nino. I think we will be seeing a fairly active October, and maybe two storms or so in November. Given how warm the subtropics are, I actually think there's a remote but non-zero chance we see a NS somewhere there in December. In the end, I'm willing to bet that we will end this season with 15-17 NSs.
https://i.imgur.com/vKNtyHq.png
Atl Nino is clearly there
https://i.imgur.com/RnR9av2.png
MJO amplifying through the Pacific. Not favorable for the Atlantic in October
MJO hasn't mattered much at all this season
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
zzzh wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:One thing's for sure at this point: it's very unlikely that we will be seeing an October/November shutout like we did last year, with the absence of Atlantic Nino. I think we will be seeing a fairly active October, and maybe two storms or so in November. Given how warm the subtropics are, I actually think there's a remote but non-zero chance we see a NS somewhere there in December. In the end, I'm willing to bet that we will end this season with 15-17 NSs.
https://i.imgur.com/vKNtyHq.png
Atl Nino is clearly there
https://i.imgur.com/RnR9av2.png
MJO amplifying through the Pacific. Not favorable for the Atlantic in October
The Atlantic Niño doesn’t seem to be as pronounced as last year, and ridging hasn’t been very strong. Those two factors together killed last year’s October activity. Looking at TD11 and the models, the strong ridging that plagued late 2021 just doesn’t seem to be there. But we’ll have to see how the next few possible AOIs play out to see if this will be another suppressed late season.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
From the CSU 2-week forecast:
As you can see from the above graph, Caribbean ACE is strongly positively skewed with several years having 0 ACE in the Caribbean during October-November, while other years (such as last year) having over 30 ACE. The median 1991-2020 ACE is 2, while the mean 1991-2020 ACE is 8.
The final forecast for October-November Caribbean ACE in 2022 is 15, which is well above the average and median ACE for the two-month period.
Note this only counts ACE in the Caribbean. For example, the wave that some models and ensembles currently develop into a hurricane in the eastern Atlantic does not count.
As you can see from the above graph, Caribbean ACE is strongly positively skewed with several years having 0 ACE in the Caribbean during October-November, while other years (such as last year) having over 30 ACE. The median 1991-2020 ACE is 2, while the mean 1991-2020 ACE is 8.
The final forecast for October-November Caribbean ACE in 2022 is 15, which is well above the average and median ACE for the two-month period.
Note this only counts ACE in the Caribbean. For example, the wave that some models and ensembles currently develop into a hurricane in the eastern Atlantic does not count.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
The sudden uptick with the 0/30 appearing and genesis within 72-96h shows that October looks to be active. Hopefully it’s better then Victor which flopped around this same timeframe because of a disturbance to its east.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
storminabox wrote:zzzh wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:One thing's for sure at this point: it's very unlikely that we will be seeing an October/November shutout like we did last year, with the absence of Atlantic Nino. I think we will be seeing a fairly active October, and maybe two storms or so in November. Given how warm the subtropics are, I actually think there's a remote but non-zero chance we see a NS somewhere there in December. In the end, I'm willing to bet that we will end this season with 15-17 NSs.
https://i.imgur.com/vKNtyHq.png
Atl Nino is clearly there
https://i.imgur.com/RnR9av2.png
MJO amplifying through the Pacific. Not favorable for the Atlantic in October
MJO hasn't mattered much at all this season
Because it never amplifies through the Pacific this entire hurricane season lol
It's been traveling around the world slowly at low amplitude
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Nice ACE chart! Is it on your website or publicly available? I didn't see it on your site.
NotSparta wrote:This chart with that climo shows that we're just barely below average now
https://i.imgur.com/BjJ3J0C.png
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
The "underdog" Sep 2022 has bested Sep 2020 and 2021 in terms of overall activity in the Atlantic Basin. Goes to show that ACE is not only about long-trackers. Fiona generated about 30 units of ACE, Earl a little over 20, Ian around 15 so far.
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1575742205318529024
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1575742205318529024
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
jconsor wrote:Nice ACE chart! Is it on your website or publicly available? I didn't see it on your site.NotSparta wrote:This chart with that climo shows that we're just barely below average now
https://i.imgur.com/BjJ3J0C.png
It's on the site, on the front page but towards the bottom
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
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- skyline385
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2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
jconsor wrote:The "underdog" Sep 2022 has bested Sep 2020 and 2021 in terms of overall activity in the Atlantic Basin. Goes to show that ACE is not only about long-trackers. Fiona generated about 30 units of ACE, Earl a little over 20, Ian around 15 so far.
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1575742205318529024
Fiona was pretty much the definition of a long tracker supported by the fact that it was a MH for a 3.5 days and it’s meteorological path, just my honest opinion.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
For all the talk of a quiet September, we only had three full calendar days this month with no activity.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Anybody have access to CFS models? I have heard how the CFS had a surprisingly good idea in advance that late September would have been very active, but I'm wondering what the model thinks of for October.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Category5Kaiju wrote:Anybody have access to CFS models? I have heard how the CFS had a surprisingly good idea in advance that late September would have been very active, but I'm wondering what the model thinks of for October.
Not much on the latest run, but remember, it's just one model run and anything will change.
The CFS model can be found on Pivotal Weather and College of DuPage.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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