2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2581 Postby Hammy » Mon Aug 08, 2022 4:06 am

zzh wrote:CFS is a large scale climate model. It's not good for individual TCs at all.


I've been using it since 2014 and it's been fairly reliable as far as giving more detail about the level of activity during given time periods and a rough, blurry number of when, where, and what the levels of activity will be (though it has on occasion with stronger storms been accurate a mouth or so out, but obviously no way to know when it is without hindsight).

It's an additional tool that gives more insight beyond looking at a map with general anomalies--which when used on their own tell us far less than we'd like to believe.

I mentioned the hiccup run earlier mostly because it was somewhat amusing that it shows the entire season with nothing but one slow-moving Andrew-type track.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2582 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:08 pm

tolakram wrote:
aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Our friend Derek Ortt chims in and has reply to Alex that is interesting.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1556319083083272195

I agree that hyperactivity is likely off the table — honestly even 120-130 ACE might be difficult at this rate — but I don’t really agree with his assessment of how others assessed ENSO state. I don’t think anyone was fixated on just Niño 3.4 SSTAs. I remember talk about a Modoki or west-based Nina in previous months, and it’s clear on any SSTA map that this is a very expansive Nina event. Additionally, even with the EPac being abnormally active, it’s been decreasing in quality, and the WPac has been acting as expected for such a strong -ENSO event.


I feel like we're deep into seasonal angst with no real data yet as to how the season will play out. :)


Exactly. I am seeing a lot of bold statements about what is going to happen or not happen, but it is only August 8th people (still early August). The average first hurricane does not form for another 3 days and the average first major does not form for about another 25 days. Taking one extreme or the other on what will happen early is a good way to end up being not even close to reality. That's why I say wait and see because September 1st can look completely different than now. Also, I think it's way too soon to talk about this being a heavy impact year or not. Often the CONUS does not get hit by a major until late August or early September.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2583 Postby Deshaunrob17 » Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:21 pm

aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Our friend Derek Ortt chims in and has reply to Alex that is interesting.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1556319083083272195

I agree that hyperactivity is likely off the table — honestly even 120-130 ACE might be difficult at this rate — but I don’t really agree with his assessment of how others assessed ENSO state. I don’t think anyone was fixated on just Niño 3.4 SSTAs. I remember talk about a Modoki or west-based Nina in previous months, and it’s clear on any SSTA map that this is a very expansive Nina event. Additionally, even with the EPac being abnormally active, it’s been decreasing in quality, and the WPac has been acting as expected for such a strong -ENSO event.


120- 130 ACE is definitely reachable, especially considering g years like 2018 and 2019.. All you need is 1-2 long trackers in a busy season
What might be reachable is 160+
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2584 Postby psyclone » Mon Aug 08, 2022 2:07 pm

The deeper we venture into August in a tranquil state.. the more coiled the spring gets. July and the first half of August tend to be tropical fool's gold...maybe we need them to meaningfully produce in a hyperactive year but it's definitely not needed for an above average year. I'd be shocked if we didn't have 3 simultaneous Atlantic systems at some point...but I'd also be shocked if we saw anything noteworthy before the bell ring date of 8-20. Be patient, enjoy the downtime and lean into climo...which tells us to get ready. It seems like we cram most of a 6 month season into 6 weeks or so more often than not..
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#2585 Postby St0rmTh0r » Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:28 pm

get ready for a crazy stretch of storms from now through peak season. this is why i dont pay attention to models past 3 days
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2586 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:15 pm

Some may not like this post, but here in S2K, we give the oportunity to the members to discuss about anything, but of course with respect to the other members.

 https://twitter.com/stormyday200/status/1556720481105051652


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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2587 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:Some may not like this post but here in S2K, we give the oportunity to the members to discuss about anything, but of course with respect to the other members.

https://twitter.com/stormyday200/status/1556720481105051652


That dude has 23 followers :lol:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2588 Postby NotSparta » Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:Some may not like this post but here in S2K, we give the oportunity to the members to discuss about anything, but of course with respect to the other members.

https://twitter.com/stormyday200/status/1556720481105051652


Stormfury wrote:Also there is an ongoing issue with wave-breaking in the deep tropics just like 2013


Honestly this just tells me he probably doesn't know what he's talking about. I've seen a few of his posts and he seems to either be a troll or only looking at negatives. Probably not a wise idea to take too seriously
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2589 Postby WiscoWx02 » Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:32 pm

toad strangler wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Some may not like this post but here in S2K, we give the oportunity to the members to discuss about anything, but of course with respect to the other members.

https://twitter.com/stormyday200/status/1556720481105051652


That dude has 23 followers :lol:


But he has a good point ngl…I’ve noticed the negative AMO emerging too.

But it’s not a true -AMO in my opinion…sorta a hybrid one based on that map. But it is definitely having a negative affect on the Atlantic for sure, think we all know that by now. But the southern MDR is the opposite so sort of a clash of titans going on here and no one is really sure which one will prevail. More likely the warmth but…maybe the -AMO is a discussion for another season.

As for the wavebreaking…well there is always wave breaking so that’s the end of that argument of his
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2590 Postby WiscoWx02 » Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:42 pm

NotSparta wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Some may not like this post but here in S2K, we give the oportunity to the members to discuss about anything, but of course with respect to the other members.

https://twitter.com/stormyday200/status/1556720481105051652


Stormfury wrote:Also there is an ongoing issue with wave-breaking in the deep tropics just like 2013


Honestly this just tells me he probably doesn't know what he's talking about. I've seen a few of his posts and he seems to either be a troll or only looking at negatives. Probably not a wise idea to take too seriously


He had me until he decided to beat the dead horse on the whole wave breaking thing :lol: He is missing one key part…the salinity of the Atlantic is on the other side of the scale than what it was in 2013. Definitely a little more digging is some good advice for him.

Add on: something I just thought about…wonder what/if any, effect a high salinity content in the Atlantic influences hurricane activity in the Atlantic regardless of AMO phase. Say salinity content is high and there is a -AMO…does high salinity help offset the -AMO in a sense?
Last edited by WiscoWx02 on Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2591 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:44 pm

Must see video from our friend Mark Sudduth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4-XuEJxTFc
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2592 Postby WiscoWx02 » Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:55 pm

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1556747196367679488




Did some digging and all 3 of those seasons were rather active, however, they all had a very low number of major hurricanes. Still active nonetheless so I guess that goes to show that the active eastern Pacific at this point means very little.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2593 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2022 8:27 pm

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2594 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:01 am

LarryWx wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:EPAC is about to shutdown soon. We'll see within the next month or so if it's still active or not.

I posted something about 3rd year Nina's usually being slower than the previous two earlier this year. Sample size is too small to be definitive though. But ENSO is definitely a big play here.

GFS is starting to show Atlantic TCG. So let's just wait and see what happens this month.


King, I didn't realize you posted about 3rd year Niña seasons tending to be slower than prior ones. That's interesting because not being aware of that I saw the same thing after looking at 8 cases and posted about it:

1874, 1894, 1910, 1917, 1956, 1975, 1985, and 2000.

1874, 1894, 1910, 1917, 1956, and 2000 were that way. 1975 was actually a little stronger than 1974 and 1985 was stronger than 1984. The highest ACE was 135 (1894) even though that was way weaker than the hyperactive 1893. Even though 1985 was one of the worst for the US, ACE was still under 90 thus showing ACE can be deceiving. 2000 had an ACE of 119, which seems like a reasonable analog.


Yeah solely based on ENSO and multi year La Nina's, 2000 would be the best analog. The discrepancy will be in the Atlantic SST configurations in that this season looks much more favorable compared to 2000.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2595 Postby WiscoWx02 » Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:11 am

I just looked back at the 1999 Atlantic Hurricane Season satellite time lapse. Looks like things remained deader than a door knob across the tropical Atlantic until…you guessed it, the 20th of August. The Gulf of Mexico woke up slightly sooner with Bret. In all honestly, I think the Gulf and Caribbean are going to wake up before the MDR does if it does at all, and I’m going to personally be watching for in close developments for the time being cause I have a feeling that’s how things are going to start to get going…assuming they do at all.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2596 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:41 am

I agree, I always think west to east, even if it's not always true. Way too early for a CV system, but one never knows.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2597 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 09, 2022 9:08 am

WiscoWx02 wrote:I just looked back at the 1999 Atlantic Hurricane Season satellite time lapse. Looks like things remained deader than a door knob across the tropical Atlantic until…you guessed it, the 20th of August. The Gulf of Mexico woke up slightly sooner with Bret. In all honestly, I think the Gulf and Caribbean are going to wake up before the MDR does if it does at all, and I’m going to personally be watching for in close developments for the time being cause I have a feeling that’s how things are going to start to get going…assuming they do at all.


William Gray of CSU fame didn't just pick 8/20 out of thin air to ring his bell. Every year is different of course but that 8/20 date is pretty rock solid on when conditions seemingly flip over night from not conducive or marginally conducive to go time.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2598 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Aug 09, 2022 10:28 am

Sometimes I think the first half of August is even more difficult than July. I mean July is one thing (and that's usually when the season cancel posts start cropping up), but probably something about "August" leads everyone to expect development even though logically we probably know it likely won't really get going until later in the month.

Plus I suspect some are just tired of the wait by the time August rolls around. 8-)
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2599 Postby Deshaunrob17 » Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:15 am

AnnularCane wrote:Sometimes I think the first half of August is even more difficult than July. I mean July is one thing (and that's usually when the season cancel posts start cropping up), but probably something about "August" leads everyone to expect development even though logically we probably know it likely won't really get going until later in the month.

Plus I suspect some are just tired of the wait by the time August rolls around. 8-)


A lot of persons keep remembering notable early August hurricanes like Allen and Charlie , but reality is early August MH aren’t that common.. Cat 1&2 Hurricanes in early August are fairly common and when they do happen it’s usually the Western Basin
It’s crazy though how we went from thinking that there’ll be a Bertha-like system in July to nothing at all..
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2600 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:31 am

Florida Straits...
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