2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
One concern in my opinion is that we have the EURO + UKMET showing a strong +NAO this summer which could be a problem. +NAO = stronger ridging
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Got some crazy winds here today in SFL, its been 20-25 MPH throughout the day. The MDR could sure use some of these...
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
I was looking at the STT anomaly charts today and the GOM is well above normal now. The 30-day trend shows it warning even more and more too.
Looks like a very busy season ahead...
Looks like a very busy season ahead...
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
jasons2k wrote:I was looking at the STT anomaly charts today and the GOM is well above normal now. The 30-day trend shows it warning even more and more too.
Looks like a very busy season ahead...
https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1524189391547256839
Gulf SSTA has little correlation with season
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
The only thing 95% of y’all care about is the MDR. Most storms struggle there till late September. Season doesn’t really get going there till then.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
2022 1.08 1.68 0.77 -0.36
NAO turned negative for April.
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Found on youtube this morning it's pretty interesting. Video link below.
How will the Bermuda-Azores High Pressure system affect the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Link: https://youtu.be/j7RGIh4SCpE
How will the Bermuda-Azores High Pressure system affect the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Link: https://youtu.be/j7RGIh4SCpE
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
SFLcane wrote:Found on youtube this morning it's pretty interesting. Video link below.
How will the Bermuda-Azores High Pressure system affect the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
https://i.postimg.cc/qMgM9gPP/high.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/HxLfV89H/high2.jpg
https://youtu.be/j7RGIh4SCpE
Analog 1956, year when came to this world on 8/11/56 and Betsy moved over PR one day later.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Looks like the upcoming MDR trade surge will only last about a week or so, before the westerlies resume. You can see around the May 21st timeframe, where a wall of westerlies look to expand ever so slightly westward
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Cpv17 wrote:The only thing 95% of y’all care about is the MDR. Most storms struggle there till late September. Season doesn’t really get going there till then.
This is the seasonal indicators thread, so of course there will be focus on something that is typically a relatively strong seasonal indicator, especially when it is out of step with many of the others
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
NotSparta wrote:Cpv17 wrote:The only thing 95% of y’all care about is the MDR. Most storms struggle there till late September. Season doesn’t really get going there till then.
This is the seasonal indicators thread, so of course there will be focus on something that is typically a relatively strong seasonal indicator, especially when it is out of step with many of the others
A lot of people on here care about ACE. And how do you get a lot of ACE? By something forming in the MDR. I don’t even know why they call it the MDR? Storms for years now have mainly struggled in that area. The hotspots have been the western Caribbean, Gulf/BOC, the area around the Bahamas, and a lot of the western/central Atlantic.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Cpv17 wrote:NotSparta wrote:Cpv17 wrote:The only thing 95% of y’all care about is the MDR. Most storms struggle there till late September. Season doesn’t really get going there till then.
This is the seasonal indicators thread, so of course there will be focus on something that is typically a relatively strong seasonal indicator, especially when it is out of step with many of the others
A lot of people on here care about ACE. And how do you get a lot of ACE? By something forming in the MDR. I don’t even know why they call it the MDR? Storms for years now have mainly struggled in that area. The hotspots have been the western Caribbean, Gulf/BOC, the area around the Bahamas, and a lot of the western/central Atlantic.
Think this post answers your question very well
zzh wrote:jasons2k wrote:I was looking at the STT anomaly charts today and the GOM is well above normal now. The 30-day trend shows it warning even more and more too.
Looks like a very busy season ahead...
https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1524189391547256839
Gulf SSTA has little correlation with season
0 likes
Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Cpv17 wrote:NotSparta wrote:Cpv17 wrote:The only thing 95% of y’all care about is the MDR. Most storms struggle there till late September. Season doesn’t really get going there till then.
This is the seasonal indicators thread, so of course there will be focus on something that is typically a relatively strong seasonal indicator, especially when it is out of step with many of the others
A lot of people on here care about ACE. And how do you get a lot of ACE? By something forming in the MDR. I don’t even know why they call it the MDR? Storms for years now have mainly struggled in that area. The hotspots have been the western Caribbean, Gulf/BOC, the area around the Bahamas, and a lot of the western/central Atlantic.
It is called MDR because of climatology. About 70% of Atlantic TCs pass through the MDR at some point in their life. Subtropical warm pool makes storms struggle there in recent years.
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- skyline385
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
160 ACE is the goal.
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1525107084848680960
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1525123425911681025
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1525107084848680960
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1525123425911681025
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- toad strangler
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
SFLcane wrote:Found on youtube this morning it's pretty interesting. Video link below.
How will the Bermuda-Azores High Pressure system affect the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
https://i.postimg.cc/qMgM9gPP/high.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/HxLfV89H/high2.jpg
https://youtu.be/j7RGIh4SCpE
This guy is another one who mis reads the NOAA return rate maps as landfalls when in actuality they represent the return of a storms center within 50 nautical miles of a location. Huge difference.
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
toad strangler wrote:SFLcane wrote:Found on youtube this morning it's pretty interesting. Video link below.
How will the Bermuda-Azores High Pressure system affect the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
https://i.postimg.cc/qMgM9gPP/high.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/HxLfV89H/high2.jpg
https://youtu.be/j7RGIh4SCpE
This guy is another one who mis reads the NOAA return rate maps as landfalls when in actuality they represent the return of a storms center within 50 nautical miles of a location. Huge difference.
Return rates? What is that? South Florida does not follow that at all as of late infact last time the eastcoast saw a big hurricane was i can't even remember maybe 2 decades ago. I for one think something large scale has changed maybe climate change which allows us to continue dodging storms on a yearly bases. We surely are not the hurricane capitol anymore. Who knows anymore
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
SFLcane wrote:toad strangler wrote:SFLcane wrote:Found on youtube this morning it's pretty interesting. Video link below.
How will the Bermuda-Azores High Pressure system affect the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
https://i.postimg.cc/qMgM9gPP/high.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/HxLfV89H/high2.jpg
https://youtu.be/j7RGIh4SCpE
This guy is another one who mis reads the NOAA return rate maps as landfalls when in actuality they represent the return of a storms center within 50 nautical miles of a location. Huge difference.
Return rates? What is that? South Florida does not follow that at all as of late infact last time the eastcoast saw a big hurricane was i can't even remember maybe 2 decades ago. I for one think something large scale has changed maybe climate change which allows us to continue dodging storms on a yearly bases. We surely are not the hurricane capitol anymore. Who knows anymore
Those return rates include hurricanes that never made actual landfall. They always have. If they were close enough NOAA considers them to be impacts. It's that same criteria that makes Florida the 'hurricane capital'.
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