2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1401 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:18 pm

aspen wrote:
skyline385 wrote:

So much sinking air in the west Atlantic even in early August

Interestingly enough, both the EPS and GEFS control members hint at possible activity for a small period in early July.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220630/43fc65fd64f7bef7ea05fac38d62c182.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220630/c6b431cdeb9482fcb27013f550b708b2.jpg

Looks like there’s also a weak enhanced CCKW in the EPac and western Atlantic around July 16-21st, then lots of rising air over the EPac for the rest of the month with small bursts of Atlantic rising air around July 26th and August 1st. Not great for the Atlantic — I’d bet the EPac would be more active — but we could get a storm or two.

A rising branch over Africa and the Indian Ocean, rather than directly over the Atlantic, is most favorable for activity within the basin.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1402 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:29 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
aspen wrote:
skyline385 wrote:So much sinking air in the west Atlantic even in early August

Interestingly enough, both the EPS and GEFS control members hint at possible activity for a small period in early July.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220630/43fc65fd64f7bef7ea05fac38d62c182.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220630/c6b431cdeb9482fcb27013f550b708b2.jpg

Looks like there’s also a weak enhanced CCKW in the EPac and western Atlantic around July 16-21st, then lots of rising air over the EPac for the rest of the month with small bursts of Atlantic rising air around July 26th and August 1st. Not great for the Atlantic — I’d bet the EPac would be more active — but we could get a storm or two.

A rising branch over Africa and the Indian Ocean, rather than directly over the Atlantic, is most favorable for activity within the basin.

Rising air over Africa will probably send a ton of waves into the Atlantic but the sinking air in the Atlantic would limit intensification somewhat right?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1403 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:05 pm

Well the models busted on PTC2 so they might also bust on this too. :wink:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1404 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:11 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:
aspen wrote:Looks like there’s also a weak enhanced CCKW in the EPac and western Atlantic around July 16-21st, then lots of rising air over the EPac for the rest of the month with small bursts of Atlantic rising air around July 26th and August 1st. Not great for the Atlantic — I’d bet the EPac would be more active — but we could get a storm or two.

A rising branch over Africa and the Indian Ocean, rather than directly over the Atlantic, is most favorable for activity within the basin.

Rising air over Africa will probably send a ton of waves into the Atlantic but the sinking air in the Atlantic would limit intensification somewhat right?

MJO phase 2 is associated with the greatest rates of Atlantic TC genesis, RI, and ACE production. Phase 2 entails -VP anomalies centered over the western Indian Ocean and neutral VP across most of the Atlantic. From mid July onward the EPS is somewhere between phases 2 and 3, indicating heightened wave activity and limited additional forcing over the basin. A generally favorable look with cyclical periods of suppression. The GEFS on the other hand is not a favorable look for the Atlantic, at least through the end of July. It suggests activity confined to CCKW passage.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1405 Postby zzh » Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:06 pm

Image
New Cansips is out. Looks like there will be a big tutt extending from Azores to the Caribbean in July.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1406 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:48 pm

Not sure how much bearing this observation may have for this season, but one major difference that seems already apparent compared to 2020 and 2021 (and the last several recent seasons, especially dating back to 2016) is how the subtropics seem cooler than average while the deep tropics are warmer. Perhaps this may be a factor in why early-season storms are struggling or not happening as often as expected? On the other hand, I do think this setup may actually give 2022 a leg up from previous years in how we could perhaps see much more intense, deep tropical activity later in the season. Now in terms of named storms, I still think it's way too early to make conclusions considering how there have been La Nina seasons in the past (namely 2010) that did not feature many storms early on but made up for that deficit once October and November rolled around
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1407 Postby USTropics » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:42 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Not sure how much bearing this observation may have for this season, but one major difference that seems already apparent compared to 2020 and 2021 (and the last several recent seasons, especially dating back to 2016) is how the subtropics seem cooler than average while the deep tropics are warmer. Perhaps this may be a factor in why early-season storms are struggling or not happening as often as expected? On the other hand, I do think this setup may actually give 2022 a leg up from previous years in how we could perhaps see much more intense, deep tropical activity later in the season. Now in terms of named storms, I still think it's way too early to make conclusions considering how there have been La Nina seasons in the past (namely 2010) that did not feature many storms early on but made up for that deficit once October and November rolled around


Early season activity is just that, rare. Even using recent climatology (1991-2020), the average first named system is June 10th (the second named system is July 17th). The below graphics are lacking a few recent years, but look at all storms from 1851-2015 for the entire month of June: It's extremely anomalous to have a system develop in the MDR or eastern Caribbean in June.

Image
Image
Image

Almost all activity in June is exclusively concentrated in the GOM, western Caribbean, or off the east coast (and most originate from scenarios like 95L vs. PTC2). Even if looking at a penultimate season in the recent satellite era (i.e., 2005), early season activity was limited in June (Arlene was June 10th, Bret was June 24th) and occurred in the western Caribbean and GOM. Hurricane Dennis and Emily formed in the first and second weeks of July, and it was really the central/western Caribbean where they reached peak intensity. 2005 had some off-the-chart zonal wind anomalies in this region for the first 2 weeks of July:
Image

For most systems, and PTC2 in particular, it is difficult to overcome the trade wind bursts as they enter the Caribbean. More specifically, when a poorly defined system that lacks a strong vort max enters the Caribbean, the wave axis also undergoes certain characteristics (namely the wave axis goes from positively tilted to negatively tilted due to the earth's axis/rotation). A recent example is a snapshot of PTC2 as it enters the Caribbean, using EarthNull and tracking winds at 850mb you can see how destructive the flow is for a weak/poorly defined system:
Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1408 Postby FireRat » Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:19 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Not sure how much bearing this observation may have for this season, but one major difference that seems already apparent compared to 2020 and 2021 (and the last several recent seasons, especially dating back to 2016) is how the subtropics seem cooler than average while the deep tropics are warmer. Perhaps this may be a factor in why early-season storms are struggling or not happening as often as expected? On the other hand, I do think this setup may actually give 2022 a leg up from previous years in how we could perhaps see much more intense, deep tropical activity later in the season. Now in terms of named storms, I still think it's way too early to make conclusions considering how there have been La Nina seasons in the past (namely 2010) that did not feature many storms early on but made up for that deficit once October and November rolled around


It may be too early to make good conclusions, but I do have a feeling that the whole PTC thing and the sluggish start to the season in terms of storms actually getting named will likely munch off the potential number of NS come season's end, so it may actually end up being much harder to get a 3rd year in a row with 20+ Named Storms.

As for the quality of the storms come the peak season, that's another matter because it could go big regardless of the start, kind of like 2004 and 2017. This would likely mean that we could get the first big ones of the season being fairly early in the alphabet, like between the C and G, instead of H onwards.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1409 Postby USTropics » Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:31 am

Cataegis96 wrote:
USTropics wrote:The western branch of the ITCZ for the second dekad of June (11-20th) has lifted anomalously more north of climo:
https://i.imgur.com/iywT0le.jpg

I plotted the past 20 years of the region from 15W to 15E, and 2022 is 4th highest (behind 2005, 2012, and 2017):
https://i.imgur.com/LQkHJ9u.png

I made an interactive graph here - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQBfIw9qGKG27fVc-VZFBnbfDvkVtIRxU3bEs-sqZ8fv1SbBxeHvHhByLLFDk52jfy8PmAjGPxJGDPV/pubchart?oid=1177492694&format=interactive


Awesome! Where did you get the historical data for the ITCZ Branch Position? Been looking for that. Can only see recent data from this year in a data table on CPC's website: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/itf/itcz.shtml.


You can grab ITF products here - https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/fews/itf/ (more specifically for the data - https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/fews/itf/data/). It's organized by month and dekad (071 is first dekad of July, 072 is second dekad of July, etc.) and goes back to 1989.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1410 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:48 am

zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/SVguqQc.png
New Cansips is out. Looks like there will be a big tutt extending from Azores to the Caribbean in July.


Will the ecmwf double down on its seasonal ace forecast? Very curious
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1411 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:51 am

FireRat wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Not sure how much bearing this observation may have for this season, but one major difference that seems already apparent compared to 2020 and 2021 (and the last several recent seasons, especially dating back to 2016) is how the subtropics seem cooler than average while the deep tropics are warmer. Perhaps this may be a factor in why early-season storms are struggling or not happening as often as expected? On the other hand, I do think this setup may actually give 2022 a leg up from previous years in how we could perhaps see much more intense, deep tropical activity later in the season. Now in terms of named storms, I still think it's way too early to make conclusions considering how there have been La Nina seasons in the past (namely 2010) that did not feature many storms early on but made up for that deficit once October and November rolled around


It may be too early to make good conclusions, but I do have a feeling that the whole PTC thing and the sluggish start to the season in terms of storms actually getting named will likely munch off the potential number of NS come season's end, so it may actually end up being much harder to get a 3rd year in a row with 20+ Named Storms.

As for the quality of the storms come the peak season, that's another matter because it could go big regardless of the start, kind of like 2004 and 2017. This would likely mean that we could get the first big ones of the season being fairly early in the alphabet, like between the C and G, instead of H onwards.


Perhaps; though getting 20+ NSs doesn’t have a very large historically recorded sample size, given only 4 years managed to do that. I think at this point getting a +23 NS season is very unlikely. Now as for 20-22 NSs, I still think if late season activity is intense that that could theoretically happen, although you do have a point; this season does not really seem to feature many subtropical shorties that defined much of the last two seasons, so perhaps a reasonable maximum NS count guess would be 19? Once again, I do think that NS count does not really have much bearing on hurricane intensity, considering you can have a season with many NSs but no Cat 4+ hurricanes (such as 2012) or a relatively low NS season with many Cat 4+ hurricanes (1996, 1999, 2004, and 2017)
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1412 Postby FireRat » Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:08 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
FireRat wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Not sure how much bearing this observation may have for this season, but one major difference that seems already apparent compared to 2020 and 2021 (and the last several recent seasons, especially dating back to 2016) is how the subtropics seem cooler than average while the deep tropics are warmer. Perhaps this may be a factor in why early-season storms are struggling or not happening as often as expected? On the other hand, I do think this setup may actually give 2022 a leg up from previous years in how we could perhaps see much more intense, deep tropical activity later in the season. Now in terms of named storms, I still think it's way too early to make conclusions considering how there have been La Nina seasons in the past (namely 2010) that did not feature many storms early on but made up for that deficit once October and November rolled around


It may be too early to make good conclusions, but I do have a feeling that the whole PTC thing and the sluggish start to the season in terms of storms actually getting named will likely munch off the potential number of NS come season's end, so it may actually end up being much harder to get a 3rd year in a row with 20+ Named Storms.

As for the quality of the storms come the peak season, that's another matter because it could go big regardless of the start, kind of like 2004 and 2017. This would likely mean that we could get the first big ones of the season being fairly early in the alphabet, like between the C and G, instead of H onwards.


Perhaps; though getting 20+ NSs doesn’t have a very large historically recorded sample size, given only 4 years managed to do that. I think at this point getting a +23 NS season is very unlikely. Now as for 20-22 NSs, I still think if late season activity is intense that that could theoretically happen, although you do have a point; this season does not really seem to feature many subtropical shorties that defined much of the last two seasons, so perhaps a reasonable maximum NS count guess would be 19? Once again, I do think that NS count does not really have much bearing on hurricane intensity, considering you can have a season with many NSs but no Cat 4+ hurricanes (such as 2012) or a relatively low NS season with many Cat 4+ hurricanes (1996, 1999, 2004, and 2017)


Well looks like Bonnie hear us talking and figured it would finally add a number :lol:

Yea 19 might actually be a reasonable max, like 2010, and especially with the La Nina, if things line up right we may get some late season monsters. True that NS has no bearing on how intense the season could be, and those quality over quantity years like 1996, 1999, 2004, 2017 definitely demonstrated that!
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1413 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Jul 01, 2022 11:36 am

Anyone interested in the different Dynamical MJO forecast comparisons can find them here

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

The GFS products seem to want to go more into 5 and 6 while the others go back into the Null phase which looks like it would be moving back to the favorable phases by August.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1414 Postby zzh » Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:01 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Anyone interested in the different Dynamical MJO forecast comparisons can find them here

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

The GFS products seem to want to go more into 5 and 6 while the others go back into the Null phase which looks like it would be moving back to the favorable phases by August.

GEFS has a major bias there. It always amplifies the MJO when entering phase 4/5 and makes it stuck there for a long period of time. EC and JMA model are much better on predicting MJO.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1415 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2022 3:05 pm

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1416 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jul 01, 2022 3:27 pm



With all of this talk about the TUTT, I just have to wonder but does anybody have an idea on how prevalent the TUTT was in years like 1998, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2010, or 2017? Seems like there's quite a bit of emphasis on how it can cause a season to perform less than expected, but I am curious to see what history has to say about it as well.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1417 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Jul 01, 2022 4:03 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:


With all of this talk about the TUTT, I just have to wonder but does anybody have an idea on how prevalent the TUTT was in years like 1998, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2010, or 2017? Seems like there's quite a bit of emphasis on how it can cause a season to perform less than expected, but I am curious to see what history has to say about it as well.


Not sure about most of the years, but I know 2017 had a huge TUTT present until about late August. There was talk of a possible inactive season and then August 20th came and so did Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria, and so on. What happens before August 20th concerning TUTTs is not very important to me.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1418 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Jul 01, 2022 4:22 pm

Something reminds me about bonnie, it had a southern track like bret of 2017 and 1933 Trinidad hurricane. Something to note about these two seasons is that they both ended up with 200+ ace. will 2022 follow in their footsteps?!!!
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1419 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jul 01, 2022 4:36 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Something reminds me about bonnie, it had a southern track like bret of 2017 and 1933 Trinidad hurricane. Something to note about these two seasons is that they both ended up with 200+ ace. will 2022 follow in their footsteps?!!!


Not sure if Bonnie alone would mean anything major, but considering we had an unusually active MDR in June already, I still think that this season has the potential to be a quality storm year. Maybe it'll put an end to those lack-of-quality storm complaints that we've been getting the past couple of years haha (although, not sure why such complaints even persisted given we already had storms like Florence, Lorenzo, and Sam, which imho were quality enough).
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2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1420 Postby skyline385 » Fri Jul 01, 2022 6:18 pm

Some Gulf activity popping up on the long range EPS and GEFS

Image
Image
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