2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[skyline385]

I also posted it in the twitter thread about how June and July have much higher correlation and less RMS error which matches Andy’s theory about August forecasts being prone to intraseasonal variations.

https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1555561692993552385

But as seen from the thread, June and July ACE forecasts for 2022 are also just as aggressive. And given the suppressed base state for much of July and early August, so even if the August forecast was affected by the initialization, you would expect it to be bearish, not bullish.

July forecast was pretty realistic and i think most agree on a range of 140-160 for this season. The June forecast was ridiculous that’s for sure.

Something else to note and this is very important, the SEAS5 model was just tuned last year to account for it underperforming in the previous years. So there is a chance it is overdoing the numbers because this is its first year after the adjustment.


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[Deshaunrob17]

I notice a mood that is not a happy one here today so I will atempt to change it with this.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1555227623684558854

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1555230159191642112

This will probably improve the mood here further, completely forgot today was weekly day.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1555300254534275081

A lot of OTS storms potential in today's run

https://i.imgur.com/mIJkoO1.png

Precip plots are a different story though

https://i.imgur.com/gjfFRKp.png

Precipitation Plots don’t necessarily show where storms go

[AtlanticWind]

Craig Setzer pointing out about how SAL is actually lower than average this year.

https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/ ... wjTww&s=19

[Monsoonjr99]

Seeming very "wait and see" at this point. I believe I put some hyperactive numbers in the pre-season prediction poll, though I've never been certain on that and I'm not putting my expectations too high. Whether we see a hyperactive season or "just" an above average season that falls short of the threshold, I wouldn't be surprised. Despite all the murmurs lately about wavebreaking/dry air/etc., I don't expect the season to "bust" as this time of year every year sees some unfavorable factor or another that sows doubts, but after August 20 usually ends up not mattering. With -ENSO, -PDO, warm tropical Atlantic, and WAM still fairly strong, 2022 is likely to at least be above average for yet another year. If it does somehow significantly underperform and end up near/below average, then I'd be surprised.

p.s. With the relative inactivity of this year's early season, without all the shorties/spinups of the past couple years, I do agree with dropping the named storm count a bit, though this reason by itself doesn't merit decreasing hurricane/major numbers considering June and July just aren't big months for those.

[cycloneye]

Don't get excited with this because is the July NMME update that had a very active forecast. The new update will be next Sunday and we will see if it repeats or has changes.

[tolakram]

These crazy over the top model outputs are, well crazy. I still like my original April numbers: 19/7/4 ACE:135 (Final) April 4

I'll believe we get long tracking MDR storms when I see it and not a second sooner. I am probably a tad low on ACE. Maybe.

[InfernoFlameCat]

These crazy over the top model outputs are, well crazy. I still like my original April numbers: 19/7/4 ACE:135 (Final) April 4

I'll believe we get long tracking MDR storms when I see it and not a second sooner. I am probably a tad low on ACE. Maybe.

19/7/4 with only 135 ACE? Are those 2013 posts rubbing off? I am sticking strong with at least 180 ACE with 18/9/5.

[tolakram]

These crazy over the top model outputs are, well crazy. I still like my original April numbers: 19/7/4 ACE:135 (Final) April 4

I'll believe we get long tracking MDR storms when I see it and not a second sooner. I am probably a tad low on ACE. Maybe.

19/7/4 with only 135 ACE? Are those 2013 posts rubbing off? I am sticking strong with at least 180 ACE with 18/9/5.

No, that was back in April. I do not believe we have the ability to predict hyperactive or dead seasons, the best we can do is average, below, or above. 135 is solidly above normal.

[cheezyWXguy]

These crazy over the top model outputs are, well crazy. I still like my original April numbers: 19/7/4 ACE:135 (Final) April 4

I'll believe we get long tracking MDR storms when I see it and not a second sooner. I am probably a tad low on ACE. Maybe.

19/7/4 with only 135 ACE? Are those 2013 posts rubbing off? I am sticking strong with at least 180 ACE with 18/9/5.

I never did participate in the seasonal numbers poll, so this feels like a decent opportunity to throw my numbers in. I like wxman’s 15/8/4 numbers from the expert forecast thread, though I might wanna bump to 15/8/5 if the Caribbean is active in October. Feels to me like we’ve missed the best window to pump the named storm count without adding to the hurricane count. ACE 155.

[AnnularCane]

I predicted 21. Just about everyone has pretty much shot that down by now. Barely even gave it a chance.

[Teban54]

I predicted 21. Just about everyone has pretty much shot that down by now. Barely even gave it a chance.

If we end up on the same pace as 2019 (a warm neutral/El Nino-ish year) from this point onwards, we would finish with 19 NS. Just saying.

[LemieT]

These crazy over the top model outputs are, well crazy. I still like my original April numbers: 19/7/4 ACE:135 (Final) April 4

I'll believe we get long tracking MDR storms when I see it and not a second sooner. I am probably a tad low on ACE. Maybe.

I went 17/8/3 ACE 135 in April and I still like my numbers as well. 2017 lite...

[LemieT]

Craig Setzer pointing out about how SAL is actually lower than average this year.

https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/ ... wjTww&s=19

A few days back on this thread when this came up, I mentioned that 2020 was WAY worse than this year. That was the first and only time I literally chewed sand particles on multiple days . The dust this year was more along normal lines. Good to have that amateur observation backed up by raw data.

[skyline385]

Out of curiosity, made another collage comparing current OHC compared to the last 5 years. It is interesting how much OHC the Western Atlantic has this year, particularly the waters near Florida.

[AnnularCane]

Craig Setzer pointing out about how SAL is actually lower than average this year.

https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/ ... wjTww&s=19

A few days back on this thread when this came up, I mentioned that 2020 was WAY worse than this year. That was the first and only time I literally chewed sand particles on multiple days . The dust this year was more along normal lines. Good to have that amateur observation backed up by raw data.

That dust made it over to the Mid-Atlantic states. I don't know how common that is.

[Hurrilurker]

Out of curiosity, made another collage comparing current OHC compared to the last 5 years. It is interesting how much OHC the Western Atlantic has this year, particularly the waters near Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/sA5p0xn.jpg

Look at the 2022 GOM compared to previous years, yikes.

[Nimbus]

Out of curiosity, made another collage comparing current OHC compared to the last 5 years. It is interesting how much OHC the Western Atlantic has this year, particularly the waters near Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/sA5p0xn.jpg

Look at the 2022 GOM compared to previous years, yikes.

Texas is finally getting some shower activity rolling in off the gulf, although its a little late for lawn revival.

[REDHurricane]

Today's 00Z CFS Weekly continues to forecast an increasingly favorable wind shear environment starting after the end of next week, especially throughout the Caribbean and Gulf. We might not even see any substantial activity in the next 10-14 days, but after that it looks like there's going to be absolutely nothing keeping the lid on the Atlantic through at least the majority of September. And coincidentally, look at which day just happens to be 14 days from now... hmmmm

[skyline385]

Today's 00Z CFS Weekly continues to forecast an increasingly favorable wind shear environment starting after the end of next week, especially throughout the Caribbean and Gulf. We might not even see any substantial activity in the next 10-14 days, but after that it looks like there's going to be absolutely nothing keeping the lid on the Atlantic through at least the majority of September. And coincidentally, look at which day just happens to be 14 days from now... hmmmm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2022080600/cfs-avg_ashearMean_atl_2.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2022080600/cfs-avg_ashearMean_atl_3.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2022080600/cfs-avg_ashearMean_atl_4.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2022080600/cfs-avg_ashearMean_atl_5.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2022080600/cfs-avg_ashearMean_atl_6.png

Mean ensemble wind plots will always converge towards a zero solution by design as the perturbations between different members start cancelling each other, this is unfortunately a limitation of every model out there simply because of the way ensembles work. Below I have compared this week's shear forecasted from a model run a week ago vs forecasted today, now imagine how big the difference will be when looking at it even further out than a week

[skyline385]

Good thread by Danny here, been wondering myself if the warm waters in the high-latitude are the cause of the relatively slow start (emphasis on relative here). Andy and some others have brought it up a few times as well.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1555918119780089858