2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Hammy]

Two things occurred to me, one is that if we do end up making it through August with nothing and then have a bust of activity in September, this may shed some light on what was going on in 1961 absent having found earlier articles on it, as the stronger than usual monsoon trough is the culprit this time.

The second is if that volcano on Tonga is having any impact on the WPAC being so inactive.

[aspen]

Two things occurred to me, one is that if we do end up making it through August with nothing and then have a bust of activity in September, this may shed some light on what was going on in 1961 absent having found earlier articles on it, as the stronger than usual monsoon trough is the culprit this time.

The second is if that volcano on Tonga is having any impact on the WPAC being so inactive.

Last I saw, the amount of dust and aerosols released into the atmosphere was expected to have a 0.1-0.5C cooling effect only in the SHem until approximately September-November 2022. It’s possible this was enough to disrupt some global weather patterns and be one contributor to the tropical anomalies in the NHem. Or its occurrence ahead of such a weird NHem TC season was just a coincidence and it hasn’t had any significant impacts outside of the SHem.

[NotSparta]

https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1558462470049726464

Now we are only half way in August, but the only year I could find since 2000 was 2013 that had as dry of an August in SFL as current August 2022. Not that SFL rainfall speaks for the basin’s activity, but it is indicative of dust and the lack of moist TW’s moving through.

All of S FL, or just SE FL?

[NotSparta]

Two things occurred to me, one is that if we do end up making it through August with nothing and then have a bust of activity in September, this may shed some light on what was going on in 1961 absent having found earlier articles on it, as the stronger than usual monsoon trough is the culprit this time.

The second is if that volcano on Tonga is having any impact on the WPAC being so inactive.

I think the main reason the WPAC is so quiet is how strong the La Nina is. The monsoon trough is basically absent which takes away from its main genesis pathway, and there's a sprawling, persistent upper trough in the area. Most Ninas aren't this strong in August so usually the WPAC isn't as quiet as it has been

[Hammy]

Two things occurred to me, one is that if we do end up making it through August with nothing and then have a bust of activity in September, this may shed some light on what was going on in 1961 absent having found earlier articles on it, as the stronger than usual monsoon trough is the culprit this time.

The second is if that volcano on Tonga is having any impact on the WPAC being so inactive.

I think the main reason the WPAC is so quiet is how strong the La Nina is. The monsoon trough is basically absent which takes away from its main genesis pathway, and there's a sprawling, persistent upper trough in the area. Most Ninas aren't this strong in August so usually the WPAC isn't as quiet as it has been

If that's the case is that likely contributing to the monsoon trough over Africa being where it's at?

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1558462470049726464

Now we are only half way in August, but the only year I could find since 2000 was 2013 that had as dry of an August in SFL as current August 2022. Not that SFL rainfall speaks for the basin’s activity, but it is indicative of dust and the lack of moist TW’s moving through.

Not in agreement. The lions share of rainfall on the E Coast comes from wet season sea breeze t storms. This year there has been a dominant EC sea breeze resulting in a banner year for central and west coast locations. I don’t think it has anything to do with true tropical waves from the East. We aren’t even in FL go time yet.

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1558462470049726464

He really has a good point here, we're actually closer to 2010 when there was little storm activity across the globe until the Atlantic basin exploded with activity in Late August through November.

[LarryWx]

- I'm still sticking with 120 for my ACE prediction that goes back to late July. 

- I remain most concerned about the Gulf coast of FL for the highest risk this season per the eight 3rd year La Niña analogs since every one had significant to major impact there.

- No TC genesis forecasted by the 12Z UKMET anywhere in the basin through hour 144.

- 12Z model consensus says we'll never know for sure whether yesterday's 12Z consensus of a strong storm into NE would have gotten a name due to possibly being a STS because today's 12Z consensus has only a significantly weaker system now.

- If we were to go another week or so with both nothing new as well as nothing imminent on model consensus, my ACE forecast would by then have been reduced from 120.

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1558462470049726464

Now we are only half way in August, but the only year I could find since 2000 was 2013 that had as dry of an August in SFL as current August 2022. Not that SFL rainfall speaks for the basin’s activity, but it is indicative of dust and the lack of moist TW’s moving through.

Not in agreement. The lions share of rainfall on the E Coast comes from wet season sea breeze t storms. This year there has been a dominant EC sea breeze resulting in a banner year for central and west coast locations. I don’t think it has anything to do with true tropical waves from the East. We aren’t even in FL go time yet.

Agreed. The Orlando area rains have been plentiful enough. Even getting odd hour very late evening storms that should typically be E. Coast diurnal stuff but with convergence seemingly occuring a good deal further west of the coastline.

[chaser1]

Hmmm, on that note.... i wonder if there's any data that might corroborate years with especially strong surface to mid level ridging that resulted in a fairly sharp precip gradient between immediate Florida E. Coast areas, as compared to well inland or W. Coast regions?

It may be quite a reach and an overly broad assumption but, might such a dominant surface to mid level set-up suggest TC tracks potentially driven further west and well into the GOM rather then recurves ahead of any E. Seaboard weakness or troughing during peak activity?

[Nuno]

Meanwhile here in coastal SEFL it really is just drier. There can showers out west or over the Bahamas and absolutely nothing here. Such a strange pattern. That east breeze is very heavy

[skyline385]

Meanwhile here in coastal SEFL it really is just drier. There can showers out west or over the Bahamas and absolutely nothing here. Such a strange pattern. That east breeze is very heavy

Coastal SFL has been incredibly dry so far




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[SoupBone]

Meanwhile here in coastal SEFL it really is just drier. There can showers out west or over the Bahamas and absolutely nothing here. Such a strange pattern. That east breeze is very heavy

Coastal SFL has been incredibly dry so far

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220815/a72e473b5312661b957bd47441765b30.jpg


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Florida is so dry, those counties are sticking the bird at us.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AnthonyDuarte03/status/1558969667078733826

[Blown Away]

[ url=https://postimg.cc/vDzzT69y][/url]



For example, August 19, 2019 Tropical Outlook and 3 systems formed within 6 days including monster Dorian.

IMO, in another week the Season Cancel posts will be on the shelf until August 2023!

[AnnularCane]

Oh yes, 2019... The season cancel posts were rampant, as I recall. Then on bell-ringing day, right on cue, Chantal! And after Chantal...well, I don't think I need to tell anyone what happened then.

[cycloneye]

About the different products to analize ssta data.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1558999073385959424

[SconnieCane]

I see in the other thread we've flipped directly from "The models show nothing, surely they must be right and we will have a 0/0/0 August" to "The models show something, surely they must be overdoing it."

I am serious...and stop calling me Shirley.

How many Airplane! references can I sneak into this thread, lol.

[skyline385]

I see in the other thread we've flipped directly from "The models show nothing, surely they must be right and we will have a 0/0/0 August" to "The models show something, surely they must be overdoing it."

I am serious...and stop calling me Shirley.

How many Airplane! references can I sneak into this thread, lol.

Well 06Z GFS just went back to showing nothing because of the same reason I suggested why it might be overdoing the RI last run

[tolakram]

Confirmation bias is strong, too strong for most amateurs, including me. What happens will happen, but generally throwing shade at the Euro is a long term losing bet.