2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#901 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun May 22, 2022 1:30 pm

So these were originally plots made by TheAustinMan back in the 2020 indicators thread, but I find it particularly interesting because what they show really resemble what we are sort of seeing now in terms of sst anomaly configuration in the Atlantic; I figured I would share them here to hear any thoughts or insight regarding them.

Image

Image

Original comment:

TheAustinMan wrote:Here's an interesting thought — we often talk about SST configuration in the preseason as a predictor of how active the season will be. However, how well are SSTs in May correlated with seasonal activity?

Decided it'd be fun to try to find this out using the NCEP/NCAR SST reanalysis from 1948-2019 and the seasonal ACE values for those years. I took a look at a whole bunch of points in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, and for each point, got the mean SST in a 5x5 degree gridbox centered on that point for each year and then compared it to the total seasonal ACE, getting an r^2 value indicating the strength of a (linear) correlation for each point.

If you were to guess where Atlantic SSTs in May were most strongly correlated with ACE, what would you guess? Did you guess the eastern Atlantic between Cape Verde and the Canary Islands? It took a very long while, but here are the results. Red shades indicate a positive correlation (warmer SSTs in May correlates with more seasonal activity) and blue shades indicate a negative correlation (cooler SSTs in May correlates with less seasonal activity). The darker the shading the stronger the linear correlation.

Given how many variables are involved in determining seasonal activity, it's no surprise that the correlation between May SSTs and ACE, at least numerically, is rather weak. r^2 values were at most about 0.3, which definitely isn't strong. But perhaps the spatial distribution of where things are more strongly or weakly correlated may tell us something about where to look in May for SSTs.

There's two maps here. I don't want to be misleading with the colors, so I wanted to emphasize first that the numerical correlation is rather weak; the first map has softer shading to reflect that. The second map has darker shading to bring out the spatial details, but don't confuse the harsher colors for a strong correlation necessarily - the r^2 values are still low overall.

890KB. Source: Generated myself using QGIS and data from ESRL
https://i.imgur.com/GoinYYO.png

908KB. Color scale enhanced here to bring out spatial details, but don't confuse the darker shading for a necessarily strong correlation. Source: Generated myself using QGIS and data from ESRL
https://i.imgur.com/CA7ZDIX.png

The way I produce this data takes a rather long time, but I'll probably make additional maps for other months and other regions later.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#902 Postby skyline385 » Sun May 22, 2022 1:44 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:So these were originally plots made by TheAustinMan back in the 2020 indicators thread, but I find it particularly interesting because what they show really resemble what we are sort of seeing now in terms of sst anomaly configuration in the Atlantic; I figured I would share them here to hear any thoughts or insight regarding them.

https://i.imgur.com/sZMJwHD.png

https://i.imgur.com/asWc8xQ.png

Original comment:

TheAustinMan wrote:Here's an interesting thought — we often talk about SST configuration in the preseason as a predictor of how active the season will be. However, how well are SSTs in May correlated with seasonal activity?

Decided it'd be fun to try to find this out using the NCEP/NCAR SST reanalysis from 1948-2019 and the seasonal ACE values for those years. I took a look at a whole bunch of points in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, and for each point, got the mean SST in a 5x5 degree gridbox centered on that point for each year and then compared it to the total seasonal ACE, getting an r^2 value indicating the strength of a (linear) correlation for each point.

If you were to guess where Atlantic SSTs in May were most strongly correlated with ACE, what would you guess? Did you guess the eastern Atlantic between Cape Verde and the Canary Islands? It took a very long while, but here are the results. Red shades indicate a positive correlation (warmer SSTs in May correlates with more seasonal activity) and blue shades indicate a negative correlation (cooler SSTs in May correlates with less seasonal activity). The darker the shading the stronger the linear correlation.

Given how many variables are involved in determining seasonal activity, it's no surprise that the correlation between May SSTs and ACE, at least numerically, is rather weak. r^2 values were at most about 0.3, which definitely isn't strong. But perhaps the spatial distribution of where things are more strongly or weakly correlated may tell us something about where to look in May for SSTs.

There's two maps here. I don't want to be misleading with the colors, so I wanted to emphasize first that the numerical correlation is rather weak; the first map has softer shading to reflect that. The second map has darker shading to bring out the spatial details, but don't confuse the harsher colors for a strong correlation necessarily - the r^2 values are still low overall.

890KB. Source: Generated myself using QGIS and data from ESRL
https://i.imgur.com/GoinYYO.png

908KB. Color scale enhanced here to bring out spatial details, but don't confuse the darker shading for a necessarily strong correlation. Source: Generated myself using QGIS and data from ESRL
https://i.imgur.com/CA7ZDIX.png

The way I produce this data takes a rather long time, but I'll probably make additional maps for other months and other regions later.


There are also some plots from Philip using recent climo and I think his plots are much clearer.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1527276772747661312




Here's one for June

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1400480393837481988


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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#903 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 22, 2022 7:17 pm

Latest CFS is a surprise, and is picking up on a strong WWB for the entire MDR from 5/23 -> 6/3.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#904 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun May 22, 2022 8:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Latest CFS is a surprise, and is picking up on a strong WWB for the entire MDR from 5/23 -> 6/3.


Given the MDR looks to be already noticeably warming since the last trade burst died down, it would be very interesting to see how warm it can get if this CFS run verifies.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#905 Postby zzh » Sun May 22, 2022 8:24 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Latest CFS is a surprise, and is picking up on a strong WWB for the entire MDR from 5/23 -> 6/3.

Image
The CFS forecast from https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/ only shows a strong WWB in the Eastern MDR from 5/23 to 5/28.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#906 Postby mixedDanilo.E » Sun May 22, 2022 8:41 pm

zzh wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Latest CFS is a surprise, and is picking up on a strong WWB for the entire MDR from 5/23 -> 6/3.

https://i.imgur.com/N1yLHNK.png
The CFS forecast from https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/ only shows a strong WWB in the Eastern MDR from 5/23 to 5/28.


The WWB goes more towards the northern MDR. But ig we can’t take the models at face value,
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#907 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 22, 2022 10:31 pm

zzh wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Latest CFS is a surprise, and is picking up on a strong WWB for the entire MDR from 5/23 -> 6/3.

https://i.imgur.com/N1yLHNK.png
The CFS forecast from https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/ only shows a strong WWB in the Eastern MDR from 5/23 to 5/28.

In this graphic, May 22->28 top right, is the entire MDR 7.5N to 15N, 60W to 0.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#908 Postby skyline385 » Sun May 22, 2022 10:42 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
zzh wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Latest CFS is a surprise, and is picking up on a strong WWB for the entire MDR from 5/23 -> 6/3.

https://i.imgur.com/N1yLHNK.png
The CFS forecast from https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/ only shows a strong WWB in the Eastern MDR from 5/23 to 5/28.

In this graphic, May 22->28 top right, is the entire MDR 7.5N to 15N, 60W to 0.


Isn't the MDR 10-20N & 20-80W?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#909 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 22, 2022 11:02 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/N1yLHNK.png
The CFS forecast from https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/ only shows a strong WWB in the Eastern MDR from 5/23 to 5/28.

In this graphic, May 22->28 top right, is the entire MDR 7.5N to 15N, 60W to 0.


Isn't the MDR 10-20N & 20-80W?


Technically yeah but the Caribbean is always on fire/warm. SST's from 60W to Africa to about 20N (Kyle MacRitchie uses 15.5N for his hovmollers) seem to be the key especially when factoring the AMO EOF phase.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#910 Postby SFLcane » Mon May 23, 2022 10:22 am

This will surely kick of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. Get ready folks could be a longggg year.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1528757645368254464


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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#911 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon May 23, 2022 10:48 am

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#912 Postby skyline385 » Mon May 23, 2022 4:06 pm

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#913 Postby SFLcane » Tue May 24, 2022 8:43 am

Don't look now but that Canary Current is indeed dropping south into the mdr. :eek:

Looking quite favorable just about the entire basin.

Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#914 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue May 24, 2022 9:04 am

SFLcane wrote:Don't look now but that Canary Current is indeed dropping south into the mdr. :eek:

Looking quite favorable just about the entire basin.

https://i.postimg.cc/kXgSrYGk/jj.png

Yeah EOF2 signature is prevalent but the MDR is quite warm as well. Basin-wide warmth is a better look than the subtropics being the primary warm spot definitely.

EDIT: Didn't realize you used OISST, you should use the CRW from that site instead. Better resolution.
Image
Last edited by DorkyMcDorkface on Tue May 24, 2022 9:50 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#915 Postby aspen » Tue May 24, 2022 9:16 am

SFLcane wrote:Don't look now but that Canary Current is indeed dropping south into the mdr. :eek:

Looking quite favorable just about the entire basin.

https://i.postimg.cc/kXgSrYGk/jj.png

The OISST map is using older climo so the SSTAs look higher than they really are.

I remember a tweet from last month comparing 2022’s SSTAs to other years at around the same time, and it seems that more MDR-favored years like 2017 and 2021 had a warm pool around the Canary Islands. IIRC, both 2018 and 2019 lacked this, instead having a warm pool in the NW Atlantic.
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2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#916 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 24, 2022 9:23 am

SFLcane wrote:Don't look now but that Canary Current is indeed dropping south into the mdr. :eek:

Looking quite favorable just about the entire basin.

Image


Couple of stuff comes to mind:
1) Alex uses outdated climo, still not sure why.
2) We do have a period of anomalous westerlies going on right now enhancing temperatures, it should drop off again starting next week. As an example here are averaged 7-day and 14-day SST anomalies with newer climo.

Image
Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#917 Postby Stormybajan » Tue May 24, 2022 10:41 am

Image
I know there maybe a slight warm bias here ( and warming to continue for the next 6 days) but I love this map. When viewing these SSTS :double: its no wonder NOAA predicted 14-21 storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-6 major hurricanes!
Lets hope the season underperforms, but now is definitely the time for everyone to prepare!
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#918 Postby NotSparta » Tue May 24, 2022 10:47 am

Stormybajan wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/d0VpRdXg/MDR-SST-24-MAY22.png
I know there maybe a slight warm bias here ( and warming to continue for the next 6 days) but I love this map. When viewing these SSTS :double: its no wonder NOAA predicted 14-21 storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-6 major hurricanes!
Lets hope the season underperforms, but now is definitely the time for everyone to prepare!


Actually I wonder what they would get with a warm MDR... in their forecast they remark near-average MDR SSTs. High numbers are due to everything else being favorable
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#919 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue May 24, 2022 10:56 am

NotSparta wrote:
Stormybajan wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/d0VpRdXg/MDR-SST-24-MAY22.png
I know there maybe a slight warm bias here ( and warming to continue for the next 6 days) but I love this map. When viewing these SSTS :double: its no wonder NOAA predicted 14-21 storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-6 major hurricanes!
Lets hope the season underperforms, but now is definitely the time for everyone to prepare!


Actually I wonder what they would get with a warm MDR... in their forecast they remark near-average MDR SSTs. High numbers are due to everything else being favorable


Probably a lower chance of near normal, in other words maybe the lower NS total prediction would be 16 and not 14, and in terms of major hurricanes, 4 and not 3.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#920 Postby mr_coogs » Tue May 24, 2022 12:05 pm

skyline385 wrote:2) We do have a period of anomalous westerlies going on right now enhancing temperatures, it should drop off again starting next week. As an example here are averaged 7-day and 14-day SST anomalies with newer climo.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220524/2f8ac927f1328b8e115cce3844a9a8ac.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220524/ba91b11954ad060b62a69c0cc41a86a3.jpg


Looking at the Hovmollers, it seems the westerlies stick around longer than that? The westerlies at the Equator drop off around then, but from 10N - 20N they stick around until at least June 1st.

Image
Image
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