2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2561 Postby aspen » Sun Aug 07, 2022 11:34 am

skyline385 wrote:@cycloneye, Aug NMME is out. It backed off for August and September forecasts, made a quick comparison between them.

https://i.imgur.com/QFu2mQT.jpg

“Backed off”? Both September plots from the August run show a little more moisture in the MDR than the July run.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2562 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 07, 2022 11:36 am

skyline385 wrote:@cycloneye, Aug NMME is out. It backed off for August and September forecasts, made a quick comparison between them.

https://i.imgur.com/QFu2mQT.jpg


There is not a huge difference between July and August Sky. If anything, a more western basin activity and MDR continues moist.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2563 Postby skyline385 » Sun Aug 07, 2022 11:38 am

cycloneye wrote:
skyline385 wrote:@cycloneye, Aug NMME is out. It backed off for August and September forecasts, made a quick comparison between them.

https://i.imgur.com/QFu2mQT.jpg


There is not a huge difference between July and August Sky. If anything, a more western basin activity and MDR continues moist.


There isn't a huge difference, will agree on that.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2564 Postby skyline385 » Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:15 pm

Looks like Late August could see some activity in the Gulf & Caribbean, the GFS is showing low shear and a very humid environment. Obviously too far out but atleast there is something.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2565 Postby skyline385 » Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:45 pm

aspen wrote:
skyline385 wrote:@cycloneye, Aug NMME is out. It backed off for August and September forecasts, made a quick comparison between them.

https://i.imgur.com/QFu2mQT.jpg

“Backed off”? Both September plots from the August run show a little more moisture in the MDR than the July run.


The plots on Alex's site do a better job of highlighting it, regardless it has backed off slightly compared to the last run.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1556317461359853569


Last edited by skyline385 on Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2566 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:47 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Hammy wrote:Suddenly the CFS has only one weak system forming between August 20 and September 26, I wonder if some bad data has gone into the 00z sets of models


I never look at the CFS. It's hocus pocus IMO


CFS is generally reliable especially if you look at it with consistently and use it for trends, but every so often it'll throw a rotten egg out there.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2567 Postby zzh » Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:49 pm

CFS is a large scale climate model. It's not good for individual TCs at all.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2568 Postby aspen » Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:03 pm

skyline385 wrote:
aspen wrote:
skyline385 wrote:@cycloneye, Aug NMME is out. It backed off for August and September forecasts, made a quick comparison between them.

https://i.imgur.com/QFu2mQT.jpg

“Backed off”? Both September plots from the August run show a little more moisture in the MDR than the July run.


The plots on Alex's site do a better job of highlighting it, regardless it has backed off slightly compared to the last run.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1556317461359853569

Looks WAY drier on Alex’s site, with only part of the MDR having any near to above-average precipitation. The high precip band also looks to be further south each run. Together this might suggest a suppressed MDR and deep tropics due to a TUTT, unusually high levels of dry air for a La Niña, and perhaps strong ridging or some other factor keeping tropical waves further south like Bonnie and everything in ON 2021.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2569 Postby NotSparta » Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:16 pm

aspen wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
aspen wrote:“Backed off”? Both September plots from the August run show a little more moisture in the MDR than the July run.


The plots on Alex's site do a better job of highlighting it, regardless it has backed off slightly compared to the last run.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1556317461359853569

Looks WAY drier on Alex’s site, with only part of the MDR having any near to above-average precipitation. The high precip band also looks to be further south each run. Together this might suggest a suppressed MDR and deep tropics due to a TUTT, unusually high levels of dry air for a La Niña, and perhaps strong ridging or some other factor keeping tropical waves further south like Bonnie and everything in ON 2021.


Apples to oranges, skyline posted September/October but I tweeted the August forecast. Makes sense it's dry for August given how things look right now. September and October look similar to last run though
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2570 Postby skyline385 » Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:21 pm

NotSparta wrote:
aspen wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
The plots on Alex's site do a better job of highlighting it, regardless it has backed off slightly compared to the last run.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1556317461359853569

Looks WAY drier on Alex’s site, with only part of the MDR having any near to above-average precipitation. The high precip band also looks to be further south each run. Together this might suggest a suppressed MDR and deep tropics due to a TUTT, unusually high levels of dry air for a La Niña, and perhaps strong ridging or some other factor keeping tropical waves further south like Bonnie and everything in ON 2021.


Apples to oranges, skyline posted September/October but I tweeted the August forecast. Makes sense it's dry for August given how things look right now. September and October look similar to last run though


ok i went back and checked and that comparison i posted shows September twice instead of August, guess that explains the confusion
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2571 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:04 pm

Our friend Derek Ortt chims in and has reply to Alex that is interesting.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1556319083083272195


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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2572 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:09 pm

skyline385 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:There is absolutely no way only one system would form in the most active part of the season. This is why one should never regard models like the CFS as anything more than a bunch of hocus pocus. If only one system forms between august 20th and September 26th, I’ll eat my shoe.


I'm not really going to get into the whole argument of impossible vs improbable, I'm sure you guys know the difference. But we've been keeping weather records for 150 out of approximately 4 billion years. To suggest that something weather related is impossible simply disregards this fact. Then to call models "hocus pocus" because it suggests something that goes against our traditional understanding of weather is just dangerous. How about a deeper explanation as to why you think it's wrong? FTR, I also think it's not going to verify, but that's only based on our traditional understanding of climatology. :D

I mean i have commented several times in this thread why CFS should not be used for looking at systems. It’s an extremely coarse model with 100-km x 100-km grids, that’s pretty much the size of a latitude (110-km). In case anyone is unaware what the grids are used for, they are the points at which calculations are done so a 100-km x 100-km grid will have only 4 points on which calculations will be done for the forecast, all other points are extrapolated from these. Think about that, between an entire latitude and longitude, only 4 points are used for the calculations which translates into the forecast. Now imagine trying to forecast a tropical cyclone with an eye less than 50-km which is where most of the thermodynamic processes occur, a month into the future using just 4 points inside a latitude/longitude grid. For reference, the EURO has a grid of 9-km by 9-km and it struggles to get TCG right sometimes even 5 days into the future. Hope this explains why CFS is called “hocus pocus” by some for looking at TC forecasts.


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People do not use it for that, it's more as an observation, it's interesting. Correcting everyone each time it's used is getting old. I like to hear what people are seeing and I don't think we need a disclaimer each time someone uses it.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2573 Postby skyline385 » Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:17 pm

tolakram wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
I'm not really going to get into the whole argument of impossible vs improbable, I'm sure you guys know the difference. But we've been keeping weather records for 150 out of approximately 4 billion years. To suggest that something weather related is impossible simply disregards this fact. Then to call models "hocus pocus" because it suggests something that goes against our traditional understanding of weather is just dangerous. How about a deeper explanation as to why you think it's wrong? FTR, I also think it's not going to verify, but that's only based on our traditional understanding of climatology. :D

I mean i have commented several times in this thread why CFS should not be used for looking at systems. It’s an extremely coarse model with 100-km x 100-km grids, that’s pretty much the size of a latitude (110-km). In case anyone is unaware what the grids are used for, they are the points at which calculations are done so a 100-km x 100-km grid will have only 4 points on which calculations will be done for the forecast, all other points are extrapolated from these. Think about that, between an entire latitude and longitude, only 4 points are used for the calculations which translates into the forecast. Now imagine trying to forecast a tropical cyclone with an eye less than 50-km which is where most of the thermodynamic processes occur, a month into the future using just 4 points inside a latitude/longitude grid. For reference, the EURO has a grid of 9-km by 9-km and it struggles to get TCG right sometimes even 5 days into the future. Hope this explains why CFS is called “hocus pocus” by some for looking at TC forecasts.


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People do not use it for that, it's more as an observation, it's interesting. Correcting everyone each time it's used is getting old. I like to hear what people are seeing and I don't think we need a disclaimer each time someone uses it.


He asked for an explanation on it, check the bolded part above. I am not here to correct anyone, just wanted to explain him because he was curious.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2574 Postby Teban54 » Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:Our friend Derek Ortt chims in and has reply to Alex that is interesting.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1556319083083272195

I don't buy the idea that EPAC has been favored all year. Sure, it had an extremely active start, but recent storms like Estelle, Frank and the (finally) newly named Howard have all underperformed to some extent, and the GFS major modelcanes have busted again and again. Don't think the EPAC hyperactivity will persist into late August and September long enough to limit the Atlantic.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2575 Postby aspen » Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:00 pm

cycloneye wrote:Our friend Derek Ortt chims in and has reply to Alex that is interesting.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1556319083083272195

I agree that hyperactivity is likely off the table — honestly even 120-130 ACE might be difficult at this rate — but I don’t really agree with his assessment of how others assessed ENSO state. I don’t think anyone was fixated on just Niño 3.4 SSTAs. I remember talk about a Modoki or west-based Nina in previous months, and it’s clear on any SSTA map that this is a very expansive Nina event. Additionally, even with the EPac being abnormally active, it’s been decreasing in quality, and the WPac has been acting as expected for such a strong -ENSO event.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2576 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:10 pm

aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Our friend Derek Ortt chims in and has reply to Alex that is interesting.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1556319083083272195

I agree that hyperactivity is likely off the table — honestly even 120-130 ACE might be difficult at this rate — but I don’t really agree with his assessment of how others assessed ENSO state. I don’t think anyone was fixated on just Niño 3.4 SSTAs. I remember talk about a Modoki or west-based Nina in previous months, and it’s clear on any SSTA map that this is a very expansive Nina event. Additionally, even with the EPac being abnormally active, it’s been decreasing in quality, and the WPac has been acting as expected for such a strong -ENSO event.


We can observe that overall conditions across the globe as a whole currently and generally has not been all that favorable. EPAC has kept up the global ACE but still with its issues. So whatever is going on, the observation is global budget is not impressive.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2577 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:14 pm

EPAC is about to shutdown soon. We'll see within the next month or so if it's still active or not.

I posted something about 3rd year Nina's usually being slower than the previous two earlier this year. Sample size is too small to be definitive though. But ENSO is definitely a big play here.

GFS is starting to show Atlantic TCG. So let's just wait and see what happens this month.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2578 Postby LarryWx » Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:51 pm

Kingarabian wrote:EPAC is about to shutdown soon. We'll see within the next month or so if it's still active or not.

I posted something about 3rd year Nina's usually being slower than the previous two earlier this year. Sample size is too small to be definitive though. But ENSO is definitely a big play here.

GFS is starting to show Atlantic TCG. So let's just wait and see what happens this month.


King, I didn't realize you posted about 3rd year Niña seasons tending to be slower than prior ones. That's interesting because not being aware of that I saw the same thing after looking at 8 cases and posted about it:

1874, 1894, 1910, 1917, 1956, 1975, 1985, and 2000.

1874, 1894, 1910, 1917, 1956, and 2000 were that way. 1975 was actually a little stronger than 1974 and 1985 was stronger than 1984. The highest ACE was 135 (1894) even though that was way weaker than the hyperactive 1893. Even though 1985 was one of the worst for the US, ACE was still under 90 thus showing ACE can be deceiving. 2000 had an ACE of 119, which seems like a reasonable analog.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2579 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 07, 2022 9:40 pm

aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Our friend Derek Ortt chims in and has reply to Alex that is interesting.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1556319083083272195

I agree that hyperactivity is likely off the table — honestly even 120-130 ACE might be difficult at this rate — but I don’t really agree with his assessment of how others assessed ENSO state. I don’t think anyone was fixated on just Niño 3.4 SSTAs. I remember talk about a Modoki or west-based Nina in previous months, and it’s clear on any SSTA map that this is a very expansive Nina event. Additionally, even with the EPac being abnormally active, it’s been decreasing in quality, and the WPac has been acting as expected for such a strong -ENSO event.


I feel like we're deep into seasonal angst with no real data yet as to how the season will play out. :)
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2580 Postby St0rmTh0r » Sun Aug 07, 2022 9:52 pm

I remember 2010 being a slow year and everyone thought it was going to be like 09. August 26th came and a switch flipped with hurricane danielle rapidily intensifying. you know its going to snow when its peak winter time. you know its going to be hot as hell in the peak of summer. you know there are going to be hurricanes at the peak of hurricane season!
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