2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[SFLcane]

I just looked back at the 1999 Atlantic Hurricane Season satellite time lapse. Looks like things remained deader than a door knob across the tropical Atlantic until…you guessed it, the 20th of August. The Gulf of Mexico woke up slightly sooner with Bret. In all honestly, I think the Gulf and Caribbean are going to wake up before the MDR does if it does at all, and I’m going to personally be watching for in close developments for the time being cause I have a feeling that’s how things are going to start to get going…assuming they do at all.

William Gray of CSU fame didn't just pick 8/20 out of thin air to ring his bell. Every year is different of course but that 8/20 date is pretty rock solid on when conditions seemingly flip over night from not conducive or marginally conducive to go time.

Well, just as Gray rings the bell the eps long range is trying to show a pattern change with the wave breaking going away and more favaorable pattern.

Watch loop till the end.

[hurricanetrack]

Notice towards the end of my What's Up video for today that the period we are in right now - from a climo perspective - actually dips somewhat before we go up the ramp. That is about as close to "calm before the storm" as you can get lol.



Link: https://youtu.be/CZFlemolnjs

[captainbarbossa19]

Notice towards the end of my What's Up video for today that the period we are in right now - from a climo perspective - actually dips somewhat before we go up the ramp. That is about as close to "calm before the storm" as you can get lol.

https://youtu.be/CZFlemolnjs

I really enjoy watching your videos. I find your analysis to be objective concerning the different indicators and I like that you do not underplay anything or over-hype! Thank you for sharing your input.

[weeniepatrol]

Across the Atlantic, the NHC continues to monitor a tropical wave in the Main Development Region (MDR) with a 30% chance of formation during the next five days. While models favor some deepening of low pressure in the near-term tied to this wave, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development by this weekend, prompting no corresponding TC area for week-1 in the MDR. Later in the period, one or more easterly waves propagating over West Africa remain favored in ensemble guidance, where there is also multi-model agreement indicating Rossby wave activity and enhanced convection in the OLR anomaly fields over the tropical Atlantic. While some probabilistic TC tools are less supportive of TC potential in the MDR, a moderate confidence area is posted over the MDR for week-2, which coincides with a sharp climatological uptick in TC activity over the Atlantic by mid-August. Should the MJO show better signs or organization over the Indian Ocean later in August, this also historically favors increased chances for TC development in the Atlantic basin.

[Jr0d]

William Gray of CSU fame didn't just pick 8/20 out of thin air to ring his bell. Every year is different of course but that 8/20 date is pretty rock solid on when conditions seemingly flip over night from not conducive or marginally conducive to go time.

Seems like even on slow seasons just after mid August its like a switch is turned and almost overnight the MDR wakes up.

With the recent hyperactive seasons, especially early season storms a few folks have forgotten (or too young to not know any different) this "unofficial start" of hurricane season.

This is always a favorite tine of year for Florida surfers. The sea grapes rippen, school is back in session leaving the morning line ups free on most of the groms. Good times.

That said I dont does not appear we will see a true hurricane swell from a Cape Verde long track stormin the next 10 days...but its coming. You can almost feel it.

[zzh]

Warmer western subtropics is taking away instability from tropics while a cooler eastern subtropics/Canary Current is transporting dry air into the tropics, decreasing the instability there.

[tolakram]

https://i.imgur.com/VbkvcJe.png
https://i.imgur.com/iXdpaRw.gif
Warmer western subtropics is taking away instability from tropics while a cooler eastern subtropics/Canary Current is transporting dry air into the tropics, decreasing the instability there.

How is that first map derived? Seems to conflict with the NOAA map

[tolakram]

SST's, same source



2021



2017



2017 SSTA


source: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/

I don't know what to think about the instability thesis floating around, unless this has been a static pattern dating back decades now.

[toad strangler]

https://i.imgur.com/VbkvcJe.png
https://i.imgur.com/iXdpaRw.gif
Warmer western subtropics is taking away instability from tropics while a cooler eastern subtropics/Canary Current is transporting dry air into the tropics, decreasing the instability there.

I don't buy this at all for the ramp up to peak season. Mark Sudduth doesn't mention it at all in his updates. I don't hear guys like Levi Cowan talking about it. I'm just not hearing it. Maybe today? Sure, it sounds plausible.

[tolakram]

If we want to use the instability graphic rather than the chart, most of the MDR is near normal at the moment.



The chart looks like it has for the past 10+ years.

[Blown Away]

2022 SST pattern, fast start in EPAC, and if Atl switch turns on @mid August, it's similar to 2017.

[NDG]

If we want to use the instability graphic rather than the chart, most of the MDR is near normal at the moment.

https://i.imgur.com/8H83F7o.png

The chart looks like it has for the past 10+ years.

https://i.imgur.com/kJg6kyJ.png

Is not near normal at all, only one small spot in the eastern Atlantic near normal at best. It still shows below normal over all.

[SFLcane]

Don’t know what to make of the models we’re getting closer every day to a bust I am afraid. We'll see if things flip when the MJO crosses.

Remarkably dead for now!

[skyline385]

Warmer western subtropics is taking away instability from tropics while a cooler eastern subtropics/Canary Current is transporting dry air into the tropics, decreasing the instability there.

Was looking at it yesterday myself as well, the cold pool has really extended itself in the last few days while the subtropics have continued to warm up. The cold pool in particular looks even more pronounced on the NOAA Coral Reef SST maps. We will find out soon enough if it’s going to have any effect on peak season.



Another feature i saw being mentioned recently is how the instability oceanic waves from the Atlantic Nina are showing up clearly now.

[SFLcane]

If we want to use the instability graphic rather than the chart, most of the MDR is near normal at the moment.

https://i.imgur.com/8H83F7o.png

The chart looks like it has for the past 10+ years.

https://i.imgur.com/kJg6kyJ.png

Is not near normal at all, only one small spot in the eastern Atlantic near normal at best. It still shows below normal over all.

https://i.imgur.com/Yrjktro.jpg

That’s a big issue!

[tolakram]

If we want to use the instability graphic rather than the chart, most of the MDR is near normal at the moment.

https://i.imgur.com/8H83F7o.png

The chart looks like it has for the past 10+ years.

https://i.imgur.com/kJg6kyJ.png

Is not near normal at all, only one small spot in the eastern Atlantic near normal at best. It still shows below normal over all.

https://i.imgur.com/Yrjktro.jpg

There is no normal on the color chart, it will be either 2 below or 2 above. Nice arrows I see what you mean, I misread the green.

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/VbkvcJe.png
https://i.imgur.com/iXdpaRw.gif
Warmer western subtropics is taking away instability from tropics while a cooler eastern subtropics/Canary Current is transporting dry air into the tropics, decreasing the instability there.

Was looking at it yesterday myself as well, the cold pool has really extended itself in the last few days while the subtropics have continued to warm up. The cold pool in particular looks even more pronounced on the NOAA Coral Reef SST maps. We will find out soon enough if it’s going to have any effect on peak season.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220810/860c2bdb43631b8ccb7bfe3407643197.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Such a weird configuration lol. It looks like September of a certain year you don't wanna see.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The instability over Africa, does that have any meaningful impact on the Cape Verde waves? It looks anomalously high.

[SFLcane]

MJO comes around August 15-20 If the models haven't really flipped in a week, and we're looking at dead til the end of August, we have a big problem.

[tolakram]

It's August 10th. The season was radically overhyped, as most of us recognized, and we had a CV wave that should not develop threaten to develop in early August. I don't see anything unusual yet but the clock is ticking. We are nearing peak angst.