tolakram wrote:skyline385 wrote:tolakram wrote:
If this is the case why couldn't any of the hurricane forecasters see this? Why didn't any of them react to it?
Webb mentioned a few weeks ago that instability is not a factor in seasonal forecasts and this season serves as a lesson to why it should be.
Seems like a pretty big statement to make about ALL hurricane forecasts. Was he talking hurricane forecasts or model predictions? I never consider what a model says to be a forecast, forecasters make forecasts, models are tools used in forecasting. CSU uses hindcasting, so they would not use a model prediction.
He was talking about seasonal forecasters not model forecasts. Check out the August CSU forecast, the word “instability” appears only once in the entire 43 page forecast and that is when Phil talks about how sub topic SSTs can potentially affect instability in the MDR. There is no analysis of current instability in the Atlantic in the forecast.
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