2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Category5Kaiju]

Is there any solid correlation between mid-level dry air and wind shear that exists? Clearly you would have to imagine that this is as favorable as a peak season look in a La Nina year that you can get, at least based on shear values....

[aspen]

The season is probably nearly over now. I don’t see how one of the most suppressed years on record can produce anything significant now that we’re slowly easing out of peak climo. Maybe something spins up in the subtropics or mid-latitudes, but as for the deep tropics, it’s going to be very difficult to get anything going. The last system to form in the deep tropics was Bonnie in early July, and now the season feels even more suppressed than a typical July.

[Category5Kaiju]

The season is probably nearly over now. I don’t see how one of the most suppressed years on record can produce anything significant now that we’re slowly easing out of peak climo. Maybe something spins up in the subtropics or mid-latitudes, but as for the deep tropics, it’s going to be very difficult to get anything going. The last system to form in the deep tropics was Bonnie in early July, and now the season feels even more suppressed than a typical July.

Wait, so just to clarify, you don't think there will be any chance of something even in the W. Atlantic in October?

[Category5Kaiju]

Just by looking at this graphic too, I honestly can't say that I feel bad just for the Atlantic. The entire Northern Hemisphere has somehow been really suppressed this year. Literally every basin there (minus the Indian Ocean, but the Atlantic and WPAC in particular) is struggling to some extent.

[aspen]

The season is probably nearly over now. I don’t see how one of the most suppressed years on record can produce anything significant now that we’re slowly easing out of peak climo. Maybe something spins up in the subtropics or mid-latitudes, but as for the deep tropics, it’s going to be very difficult to get anything going. The last system to form in the deep tropics was Bonnie in early July, and now the season feels even more suppressed than a typical July.

Wait, so just to clarify, you don't think there will be any chance of something even in the W. Atlantic in October?

It’s possible, but even with La Niña favoring the WCar during ON, I’m not sure that’ll be able to overcome the ridiculous instability present across the basin. This has proven to be no ordinary La Niña year, and even the more favorable 2021 failed to have anything in the deep tropics after Sam (although that was likely due to the Atlantic Niño). Also the forecast VP anomalies are a mixed bag, showing rising air over the EPac/CA and sinking air over Africa and the eastern Atlantic. Maybe that could fuel a CAG, or it could not. It’ll probably supress the wave train, and it’s not like many have managed to get all the way to the WAtl intact anyways.

Also, there’s no way we can rely on the GFS to sniff out any WCar development in advance like in 2020. Maybe the blind squirrel will find its nut this year, or maybe it’ll have to wait until 2023.

[boca]

If we get another storm or two it will be a lot to overcome it looks like a suppressed July out there.I love tracking storms but this year is a rough one for that to happen the switch really didn’t turn on and if we end up with 5 named storms it will make everyone in the off season reevaluate what happened and I will take the preseason predictions not so seriously until we can understand what happened for this year to be the biggest bust in history.

[Meteophile]

The season is probably nearly over now. I don’t see how one of the most suppressed years on record can produce anything significant now that we’re slowly easing out of peak climo. Maybe something spins up in the subtropics or mid-latitudes, but as for the deep tropics, it’s going to be very difficult to get anything going. The last system to form in the deep tropics was Bonnie in early July, and now the season feels even more suppressed than a typical July.

Sorry for my probably not so good english.

I never only refer to climo. In fact, i don't really use it. The only thing interesting i find in it is to understand the effect of the time of the year on the different factors that can affect the tropical cyclone activity.
So i rely on the different factors (keeping in mind there are some unknown factors) and it looks like the ocean has enough heat to sustain until early november with decent energy. Let's see how the other factors change (or not ?) during this entire time (which is what this topic is about i think).
Maybe it's because i'm not a meteorologist at all, but i don't think we should cancel a season based on its previous activity.

[Category5Kaiju]

Whatever happens going forward, it looks like seasonal predictions are going to have to weigh mid-level dry air to a far greater degree. If there are even subtle hints of that being an issue in an upcoming season (by the July/August timeframe, for instance), imho, forecasters should really consider lowering their numbers. As we have seen with this season in particular, mid-level dry air is perhaps one of the most savage limiting factors against tropical cyclone strength and formation.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I don’t know what is going on. Season is feeling down. However, a lot can change in 5 days, as we have seen. I expect a couple of nasty long trackers still. We just need to watch and wait. Season is not over by any means. It isn’t over until December. So I’m not ruling anything out.

[dexterlabio]

Just by looking at this graphic too, I honestly can't say that I feel bad just for the Atlantic. The entire Northern Hemisphere has somehow been really suppressed this year. Literally every basin there (minus the Indian Ocean, but the Atlantic and WPAC in particular) is struggling to some extent.

https://i.imgur.com/UqlssFP.png

WPAC having a slow year due to La Niña is expected, Atl on the other hand…

[Hammy]

The season is probably nearly over now. I don’t see how one of the most suppressed years on record can produce anything significant now that we’re slowly easing out of peak climo. Maybe something spins up in the subtropics or mid-latitudes, but as for the deep tropics, it’s going to be very difficult to get anything going. The last system to form in the deep tropics was Bonnie in early July, and now the season feels even more suppressed than a typical July.

Wait, so just to clarify, you don't think there will be any chance of something even in the W. Atlantic in October?

It’s possible, but even with La Niña favoring the WCar during ON, I’m not sure that’ll be able to overcome the ridiculous instability present across the basin. This has proven to be no ordinary La Niña year, and even the more favorable 2021 failed to have anything in the deep tropics after Sam (although that was likely due to the Atlantic Niño). Also the forecast VP anomalies are a mixed bag, showing rising air over the EPac/CA and sinking air over Africa and the eastern Atlantic. Maybe that could fuel a CAG, or it could not. It’ll probably supress the wave train, and it’s not like many have managed to get all the way to the WAtl intact anyways.

Also, there’s no way we can rely on the GFS to sniff out any WCar development in advance like in 2020. Maybe the blind squirrel will find its nut this year, or maybe it’ll have to wait until 2023.

You never could. As long as I've been tracking the models, going back to 2012, the GFS always spins up storms there in May/June and late September/October, without exception.

[ScottNAtlanta]

If we get another storm or two it will be a lot to overcome it looks like a suppressed July out there.I love tracking storms but this year is a rough one for that to happen the switch really didn’t turn on and if we end up with 5 named storms it will make everyone in the off season reevaluate what happened and I will take the preseason predictions not so seriously until we can understand what happened for this year to be the biggest bust in history.

I still have the theory that the Tonga Eruption injecting so much water vapor into the Mesosphere has something to do with it. The mesosphere is devoid of water vapor usually and that can have an effect on other layers of the atmosphere. It would explain the northern hemisphere being down as a whole.
From the following article
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3204/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere/

This extra water vapor could influence atmospheric chemistry, boosting certain chemical reactions that could temporarily worsen depletion of the ozone layer. It could also influence surface temperatures. Massive volcanic eruptions like Krakatoa and Mount Pinatubo typically cool Earth’s surface by ejecting gases, dust, and ash that reflect sunlight back into space. In contrast, the Tonga volcano didn’t inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, and the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat. The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere and would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects.

Warming could cause the atmosphere to dry out at lower levels, and the fact that some of that water vapor made it to the cold dry mesosphere would boost that theory

[al78]

Whatever happens going forward, it looks like seasonal predictions are going to have to weigh mid-level dry air to a far greater degree. If there are even subtle hints of that being an issue in an upcoming season (by the July/August timeframe, for instance), imho, forecasters should really consider lowering their numbers. As we have seen with this season in particular, mid-level dry air is perhaps one of the most savage limiting factors against tropical cyclone strength and formation.

It will come down as to whether anomalous dry air over the tropics during August-September has any predictability. If it doesn't, it will not be possible to factor it into seasonal predictions given the final predictions are in early August. It is also important to remember that it is often a bad idea to latch on to what is happening here and now as an indication as to what will happen through the season. Look at 2018 for example. I frequently think people are far too reactive to the season to date, whilst that may have worked this year, in many years there is significant intra-seasonal variation in activity and it doesn't work.

On a final note, a year like this does not automatically count against seasonal forecasts. The reason TSR include a probabilistic chart is precisely to convey the uncertainty, and even when the forecast goes for an active season, there is a small probability of an average or quiet season. There is always uncertainty around any deterministic forecast and always a chance the deterministic forecast will bust due to the forecast uncertainty, this does not mean the seasonal forecasts suddenly become nonsense.

[al78]

If we get another storm or two it will be a lot to overcome it looks like a suppressed July out there.I love tracking storms but this year is a rough one for that to happen the switch really didn’t turn on and if we end up with 5 named storms it will make everyone in the off season reevaluate what happened and I will take the preseason predictions not so seriously until we can understand what happened for this year to be the biggest bust in history.

I still have the theory that the Tonga Eruption injecting so much water vapor into the Mesosphere has something to do with it. The mesosphere is devoid of water vapor usually and that can have an effect on other layers of the atmosphere. It would explain the northern hemisphere being down as a whole.

Mesosphere? That layer starts around 160,000 feet. I doubt anything other than a massive supervolcano could eject material to that altitude. Do you mean the stratosphere?

[ScottNAtlanta]

If we get another storm or two it will be a lot to overcome it looks like a suppressed July out there.I love tracking storms but this year is a rough one for that to happen the switch really didn’t turn on and if we end up with 5 named storms it will make everyone in the off season reevaluate what happened and I will take the preseason predictions not so seriously until we can understand what happened for this year to be the biggest bust in history.

I still have the theory that the Tonga Eruption injecting so much water vapor into the Mesosphere has something to do with it. The mesosphere is devoid of water vapor usually and that can have an effect on other layers of the atmosphere. It would explain the northern hemisphere being down as a whole.

Mesosphere? That layer starts around 160,000 feet. I doubt anything other than a massive supervolcano could eject material to that altitude. Do you mean the stratosphere?

No, I mean MESOSPHERE
This was the tallest plume ever measured. It injected water vapor 36 miles up. It was 1.5 times as high as the Pinatubo eruption. It seems the location of the underwater caldera was right at the sweet spot. Not too shallow and not too deep. If you google "Tonga eruption mesosphere" you will get plenty of well respected scientific sources.
By my calculation ...160,000 ft is just a smidge over 30 miles.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/image ... mesosphere
Also (and I'm sorry I keep editing this but I remember stuff to add), the eruption caldera was 400 feet deep in the ocean yet was so loud the sound was picked up in Alaska and the shock wave circled the Earth twice. After the eruption, it left a crater 875 meters deep. That's a whole lot of material it ejected. I can't even imagine if this had been an eruption above water. I don't think most people understand the magnitude of this eruption.

[Hammy]

What's interesting is how often we've had these massive storm-dampening events at the beginning of every decade save for the 2000s.

1962 and 72-73 were extremely quiet but I'm not sure if there was anything there outside of ENSO events, but

1982: El Chichón erupted, having an impact on 1982-83 seasons (on top of 1982 with El Nino)
1991: Pinatubo erupted, having an impact on the 1991-94 seasons
2013: THC issues that impacted 2013-14
2022: Tonga eruption

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011JD016716

[Visioen]

So I take from this thread the cause is volcano induced wavebreaking by mid-level dry air.

As in, I have no clue what it means but it sounds good.

[Hammy]

So I take from this thread the cause is volcano induced wavebreaking by mid-level dry air.

As in, I have no clue what it means but it sounds good.

Wave breaking isn't even entirely the issue, the entire span of the tropics have warmed in the upper atmosphere, resulting in significant stability

[tolakram]

Current instability chart

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1569287646538596354