2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2541 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:54 am

Steve wrote:Back burner for now, but the way the season is going, it seems to me that unless something was to form just off the SE Coast, the next possible US threat would be Texas. Something will have to be on the table when MJO is a few days into Phase 2. Early morning bet would be somewhere around the 17th or 18th. Of course Phase 2 can be an active phase for the Mexican Pacific coast too. If regional tropical energy is in the EPAC, you might see something skirting the coast there or possibly landfalling. But if the energy is in the Gulf, that would be an eastward pattern progression from the recent EPAC systems. And if so, that would indicate a potential system would be coming in toward west, wnw, or nw. 10% at best from this far out. Watch models (global and mjo) next week and let’s see which way they go


Have you been watching this whole summer? :lol:

We'd have to have a major pattern change here to get something here. What makes you think that's happening?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2542 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:23 am

Suddenly the CFS has only one weak system forming between August 20 and September 26, I wonder if some bad data has gone into the 00z sets of models
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2543 Postby MHC Tracking » Sun Aug 07, 2022 6:07 am

Hammy wrote:Suddenly the CFS has only one weak system forming between August 20 and September 26, I wonder if some bad data has gone into the 00z sets of models

Can't wait to see a certain set of people spam this, crying bust as a result :roll:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2544 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:07 am

SoupBone wrote:
Steve wrote:Back burner for now, but the way the season is going, it seems to me that unless something was to form just off the SE Coast, the next possible US threat would be Texas. Something will have to be on the table when MJO is a few days into Phase 2. Early morning bet would be somewhere around the 17th or 18th. Of course Phase 2 can be an active phase for the Mexican Pacific coast too. If regional tropical energy is in the EPAC, you might see something skirting the coast there or possibly landfalling. But if the energy is in the Gulf, that would be an eastward pattern progression from the recent EPAC systems. And if so, that would indicate a potential system would be coming in toward west, wnw, or nw. 10% at best from this far out. Watch models (global and mjo) next week and let’s see which way they go


Have you been watching this whole summer? :lol:

We'd have to have a major pattern change here to get something here. What makes you think that's happening?


What’s up Soup? Early season development corridors and activity sometimes/often move west to east from the Pacific to Gulf to Atlantic. Also MJO is going to Phase 2 around a week from today. Small chance like I said, but it should show up in models end of next weekend if anything is going to develop in the West Gulf. Better shot of nothing happening or something along the Mexican Riviera, but don’t be surprised if there is something week after next.

I was pointing it out because of the last couple days people were saying it looks like a possible east coast, OTS and Florida year. I don’t disagree with any of that but was pointing out that outside of a spin up near the SE Coast, I’d be looking toward Texas first.
Last edited by Steve on Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2545 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:09 am

Hammy wrote:Suddenly the CFS has only one weak system forming between August 20 and September 26, I wonder if some bad data has gone into the 00z sets of models


I never look at the CFS. It's hocus pocus IMO
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2546 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:27 am

Hammy wrote:Suddenly the CFS has only one weak system forming between August 20 and September 26, I wonder if some bad data has gone into the 00z sets of models


Or it could be a very slow season for 2022. It has to happen again eventually.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2547 Postby aspen » Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:45 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Hammy wrote:Suddenly the CFS has only one weak system forming between August 20 and September 26, I wonder if some bad data has gone into the 00z sets of models


Or it could be a very slow season for 2022. It has to happen again eventually.

A single storm in all of September is unheard of in the satellite era. Even 2013 had a couple of NS and two (weak) hurricanes, despite being suppressed in every way possible. If 2022 does bust/underachieve, we’ll still get a few September systems.

I wonder what it would take to have zero hurricanes and only 2-3 storms at most in September. Maybe a combo of a strong El Niño and another THC collapse, but it’s possible the latter could impact ENSO state.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2548 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:51 am

Shear is still ripping across the Caribbean :double:
By this time in 2020, 2019, 2017, 2016, even in 2000 the Caribbean was already getting much favorable.

Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2549 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 07, 2022 9:19 am

Steve wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Steve wrote:Back burner for now, but the way the season is going, it seems to me that unless something was to form just off the SE Coast, the next possible US threat would be Texas. Something will have to be on the table when MJO is a few days into Phase 2. Early morning bet would be somewhere around the 17th or 18th. Of course Phase 2 can be an active phase for the Mexican Pacific coast too. If regional tropical energy is in the EPAC, you might see something skirting the coast there or possibly landfalling. But if the energy is in the Gulf, that would be an eastward pattern progression from the recent EPAC systems. And if so, that would indicate a potential system would be coming in toward west, wnw, or nw. 10% at best from this far out. Watch models (global and mjo) next week and let’s see which way they go


Have you been watching this whole summer? :lol:

We'd have to have a major pattern change here to get something here. What makes you think that's happening?


What’s up Soup? Early season development corridors and activity sometimes/often move west to east from the Pacific to Gulf to Atlantic. Also MJO is going to Phase 2 around a week from today. Small chance like I said, but it should show up in models end of next weekend if anything is going to develop in the West Gulf. Better shot of nothing happening or something along the Mexican Riviera, but don’t be surprised if there is something week after next.

I was pointing it out because of the last couple days people were saying it looks like a possible east coast, OTS and Florida year. I don’t disagree with any of that but was pointing out that outside of a spin up near the SE Coast, I’d be looking toward Texas first.



Ahhh gotcha! Thanks for that explanation.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2550 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Aug 07, 2022 9:21 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Hammy wrote:Suddenly the CFS has only one weak system forming between August 20 and September 26, I wonder if some bad data has gone into the 00z sets of models


Or it could be a very slow season for 2022. It has to happen again eventually.

There is absolutely no way only one system would form in the most active part of the season. This is why one should never regard models like the CFS as anything more than a bunch of hocus pocus. If only one system forms between august 20th and September 26th, I’ll eat my shoe.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2551 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 07, 2022 9:35 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Hammy wrote:Suddenly the CFS has only one weak system forming between August 20 and September 26, I wonder if some bad data has gone into the 00z sets of models


Or it could be a very slow season for 2022. It has to happen again eventually.

There is absolutely no way only one system would form in the most active part of the season. This is why one should never regard models like the CFS as anything more than a bunch of hocus pocus. If only one system forms between august 20th and September 26th, I’ll eat my shoe.


I'm not really going to get into the whole argument of impossible vs improbable, I'm sure you guys know the difference. But we've been keeping weather records for 150 out of approximately 4 billion years. To suggest that something weather related is impossible simply disregards this fact. Then to call models "hocus pocus" because it suggests something that goes against our traditional understanding of weather is just dangerous. How about a deeper explanation as to why you think it's wrong? FTR, I also think it's not going to verify, but that's only based on our traditional understanding of climatology. :D
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2552 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 07, 2022 9:37 am

NDG wrote:Shear is still ripping across the Caribbean :double:
By this time in 2020, 2019, 2017, 2016, even in 2000 the Caribbean was already getting much favorable.

https://i.imgur.com/zCkdhJF.gif


I'm wondering what's the longest stretch where we've have continued shear during peak seasons.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2553 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Aug 07, 2022 10:01 am

SoupBone wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Or it could be a very slow season for 2022. It has to happen again eventually.

There is absolutely no way only one system would form in the most active part of the season. This is why one should never regard models like the CFS as anything more than a bunch of hocus pocus. If only one system forms between august 20th and September 26th, I’ll eat my shoe.


I'm not really going to get into the whole argument of impossible vs improbable, I'm sure you guys know the difference. But we've been keeping weather records for 150 out of approximately 4 billion years. To suggest that something weather related is impossible simply disregards this fact. Then to call models "hocus pocus" because it suggests something that goes against our traditional understanding of weather is just dangerous. How about a deeper explanation as to why you think it's wrong? FTR, I also think it's not going to verify, but that's only based on our traditional understanding of climatology. :D

The reason I believe this model is most likely incorrect is due to climatology. Since satellite records have been kept, the above scenario has never occurred, even in the most unfavorable seasons. This current season is far from unfavorable. It has above average SST to average SST in the Caribbean to the MDR. Another reason to not trust the CFS model is because it cannot input or correctly calculate every single small scale event that occurs on earth. For example, every cloud that forms has a small impact on the weather around it. So every slight mistake this model makes concerning these features means it goes farther down and away from what will actually happen. This results in a positive feedback loop in which the model becomes more and more incorrect because of an error. These mistakes exponentially increase as the model runs. Thus it becomes unreliable past a week for most models. As for the case of the CFS, it is never reliable because by the time it initiated, it is completely wrong upon multiple fronts among all parameters. The only times it may be right is by sheer luck resulted by a convergent solution that manages to match up to reality. Remember in early July when this model predicted a very active late July in the Atlantic? How did that turn out. CFS is Hocus Pocus. Just my personal opinion with some evidence to back it up. Maybe one day the CFS will have the capability to be reliable and accurate. But that day has yet to have arrived.
:D
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2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2554 Postby skyline385 » Sun Aug 07, 2022 10:10 am

SoupBone wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Or it could be a very slow season for 2022. It has to happen again eventually.

There is absolutely no way only one system would form in the most active part of the season. This is why one should never regard models like the CFS as anything more than a bunch of hocus pocus. If only one system forms between august 20th and September 26th, I’ll eat my shoe.


I'm not really going to get into the whole argument of impossible vs improbable, I'm sure you guys know the difference. But we've been keeping weather records for 150 out of approximately 4 billion years. To suggest that something weather related is impossible simply disregards this fact. Then to call models "hocus pocus" because it suggests something that goes against our traditional understanding of weather is just dangerous. How about a deeper explanation as to why you think it's wrong? FTR, I also think it's not going to verify, but that's only based on our traditional understanding of climatology. :D

I mean i have commented several times in this thread why CFS should not be used for looking at systems. It’s an extremely coarse model with 100-km x 100-km grids, that’s pretty much the size of a latitude (110-km). In case anyone is unaware what the grids are used for, they are the points at which calculations are done so a 100-km x 100-km grid will have only 4 points on which calculations will be done for the forecast, all other points are extrapolated from these. Think about that, between an entire latitude and longitude, only 4 points are used for the calculations which translates into the forecast. Now imagine trying to forecast a tropical cyclone with an eye less than 50-km which is where most of the thermodynamic processes occur, a month into the future using just 4 points inside a latitude/longitude grid. For reference, the EURO has a grid of 9-km by 9-km and it struggles to get TCG right sometimes even 5 days into the future. Hope this explains why CFS is called “hocus pocus” by some for looking at TC forecasts.


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Last edited by skyline385 on Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:17 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2555 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 07, 2022 10:14 am

NDG wrote:Shear is still ripping across the Caribbean :double:
By this time in 2020, 2019, 2017, 2016, even in 2000 the Caribbean was already getting much favorable.

https://i.imgur.com/zCkdhJF.gif

Probably due to the more rising air than normal over the EPAC (lots of EPAC activity since July) leading to
more sinking air than normal over the Caribbean which can lead to enhanced westerly shear.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2556 Postby MHC Tracking » Sun Aug 07, 2022 10:53 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Hammy wrote:Suddenly the CFS has only one weak system forming between August 20 and September 26, I wonder if some bad data has gone into the 00z sets of models


Or it could be a very slow season for 2022. It has to happen again eventually.

There is absolutely no way only one system would form in the most active part of the season. This is why one should never regard models like the CFS as anything more than a bunch of hocus pocus. If only one system forms between august 20th and September 26th, I’ll eat my shoe.

Occam's razor would definitely support disregarding CFS (which is something that should arguably be done regardless)
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2557 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 07, 2022 11:03 am

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:Shear is still ripping across the Caribbean :double:
By this time in 2020, 2019, 2017, 2016, even in 2000 the Caribbean was already getting much favorable.

https://i.imgur.com/zCkdhJF.gif

Probably due to the more rising air than normal over the EPAC (lots of EPAC activity since July) leading to
more sinking air than normal over the Caribbean which can lead to enhanced westerly shear.


That has been the culprit, no doubt about it but I didn’t see that being the case back in June for the first week in August being so hostile across the Caribbean knowing already that La Niña was not going anywhere along with a -PDO.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2558 Postby skyline385 » Sun Aug 07, 2022 11:24 am

@cycloneye, Aug NMME is out. It backed off for August and September forecasts, made a quick comparison between them.

Image
Last edited by skyline385 on Sun Aug 07, 2022 11:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2559 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 07, 2022 11:30 am

NDG wrote:Shear is still ripping across the Caribbean :double:
By this time in 2020, 2019, 2017, 2016, even in 2000 the Caribbean was already getting much favorable.

https://i.imgur.com/zCkdhJF.gif


All of that with La Niña and -PDO. Maybe the very active EPAC causing more shear as King said.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2560 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 07, 2022 11:32 am

cycloneye wrote:
NDG wrote:Shear is still ripping across the Caribbean :double:
By this time in 2020, 2019, 2017, 2016, even in 2000 the Caribbean was already getting much favorable.

https://i.imgur.com/zCkdhJF.gif


All of that with La Niña.


In regards to La Nina, we need to see a larger sample size vs simply a week out where its probably just enhanced EPAC activity providing some Caribbean shear.
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