2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#841 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon May 16, 2022 8:22 pm

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#842 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon May 16, 2022 8:25 pm



The big question is if our seven-year streak of pre-season activity will continue. It very well might; subtropical activity is hard to forecast in advance.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#843 Postby aspen » Mon May 16, 2022 9:24 pm


Wow that’s a lot of favorable CCKW activity for most of the next four weeks. If this verifies, we could see a more active than normal June, maybe even around 2020’s pace.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#844 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon May 16, 2022 9:53 pm

aspen wrote:

Wow that’s a lot of favorable CCKW activity for most of the next four weeks. If this verifies, we could see a more active than normal June, maybe even around 2020’s pace.


If that verifies, I would not be surprised if we see 3 or 4 NSs in the month of June alone. Assuming this potential system next week becomes Alex and actually forms, who knows if we'll see Earl or Fiona by late June/early July?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#845 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon May 16, 2022 10:54 pm

It’s not that favorable because it’s way too early for AEW genesis. What it does suggest however is 1-2 more cracks at CAG genesis.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#846 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 17, 2022 5:29 am

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#847 Postby mixedDanilo.E » Tue May 17, 2022 2:01 pm



Could see June be active especially with persistent MJO in the west Atlantic too which the CFS weeklies also seem to hint as well.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#848 Postby mixedDanilo.E » Tue May 17, 2022 2:05 pm

Also CFS weeklies showing persistent above normal precip in the gulf and WCAR into the most of the first half of June.

[imgur] https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_3.png[/imgur]

[imgur] https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_4.png[/imgur]

MJO on the CFS weeklies also hints at strong western Atlantic Phase 8-1 MJO persistent around this time too. Maybe more chances besides the time we have this week for TC development??
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#849 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue May 17, 2022 2:08 pm

mixedDanilo.E wrote:Also CFS weeklies showing persistent above normal precip in the gulf and WCAR into the most of the first half of June.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2022051700/cfs-avg_apcpna_watl_3.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2022051700/cfs-avg_apcpna_watl_4.png

MJO on the CFS weeklies also hints at strong western Atlantic Phase 8-1 MJO persistent around this time too. Maybe more chances besides the time we have this week for TC development??


I wonder: is pre-season development going to continue with this season?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#850 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue May 17, 2022 2:11 pm

mixedDanilo.E wrote:Also CFS weeklies showing persistent above normal precip in the gulf and WCAR into the most of the first half of June.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2022051700/cfs-avg_apcpna_watl_3.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2022051700/cfs-avg_apcpna_watl_4.png

MJO on the CFS weeklies also hints at strong western Atlantic Phase 8-1 MJO persistent around this time too. Maybe more chances besides the time we have this week for TC development??


Indications suggest that there will be another CAG around early June. Would be quite an interesting sight if this current CAG and the following CAG give rise to Atlantic storms rather than EPAC or no storm at all
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#851 Postby mixedDanilo.E » Tue May 17, 2022 2:20 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
mixedDanilo.E wrote:Also CFS weeklies showing persistent above normal precip in the gulf and WCAR into the most of the first half of June.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2022051700/cfs-avg_apcpna_watl_3.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2022051700/cfs-avg_apcpna_watl_4.png

MJO on the CFS weeklies also hints at strong western Atlantic Phase 8-1 MJO persistent around this time too. Maybe more chances besides the time we have this week for TC development??


Indications suggest that there will be another CAG around early June. Would be quite an interesting sight if this current CAG and the following CAG give rise to Atlantic storms rather than EPAC or no storm at all


We gotta wait and see maybe on both sides we could see stuff but depends on where is favorable - arguably the Caribbean would be more favorable cuz of the atmospheric setup for the Atlantic this year.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#852 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 17, 2022 4:57 pm

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#853 Postby skyline385 » Wed May 18, 2022 9:44 pm

Looking at the last 30 years climo instead of the 1981-2010 period on Alex's site kinda shows that the MDR has cooled below average, almost like a -AMO pattern

Image
Last edited by skyline385 on Wed May 18, 2022 10:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#854 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed May 18, 2022 10:25 pm

:uarrow: That's a classic EOF2 +AMO if I've ever seen one.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#855 Postby skyline385 » Wed May 18, 2022 10:34 pm

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: That's a classic EOF2 +AMO if I've ever seen one.


I will happily admit that my knowledge on AMO patterns is pretty limited so I am probably in the wrong here. I was mostly looking to share how the MDR SST are again below average when using recent climo.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#856 Postby Cpv17 » Wed May 18, 2022 11:33 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: That's a classic EOF2 +AMO if I've ever seen one.


I will happily admit that my knowledge on AMO patterns is pretty limited so I am probably in the wrong here. I was mostly looking to share how the MDR SST are again below average when using recent climo.


Heck I don’t even know what AMO is lol don’t worry about it.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#857 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu May 19, 2022 5:58 am

2021 was able to produce a pre-season storm during a suppressed MJO phase, so something would be weird with this season (2022) if it failed to produce a pre-season storm in either the subtropics or the tropics. 12 days are left in May, so pre-season development is still very much possible. Ever since 2013, pre-season development has virtually been a prerequisite for an active season; every above-average season since 2013 (2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021) has had pre-season activity.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#858 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu May 19, 2022 7:35 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:2021 was able to produce a pre-season storm during a suppressed MJO phase, so something would be weird with this season (2022) if it failed to produce a pre-season storm in either the subtropics or the tropics. 12 days are left in May, so pre-season development is still very much possible. Ever since 2013, pre-season development has virtually been a prerequisite for an active season; every above-average season since 2013 (2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021) has had pre-season activity.

Yes but unless they develop in the MDR or Caribbean, it doesn’t say much about what the rest of the season will be like. Weak gulf and subtropic development is a poor indicator for predicting the rest of the season. 2005 did not feature a pre season storm. Keep that in mind. Unless an unusually powerful system develops like a cat 1 in may, I would pay no attention to early system development in regards to its indications of how the rest of the season will go. An exception to what I said would be hurricane Alex in January 2016, but that would not have any impact on the Atlantic Hurricane season of 2016 because of how early it developed as well as the fact that it developed out of a cold core low without any tropical origin.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#859 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 19, 2022 8:11 am

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#860 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 19, 2022 8:32 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:2021 was able to produce a pre-season storm during a suppressed MJO phase, so something would be weird with this season (2022) if it failed to produce a pre-season storm in either the subtropics or the tropics. 12 days are left in May, so pre-season development is still very much possible. Ever since 2013, pre-season development has virtually been a prerequisite for an active season; every above-average season since 2013 (2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021) has had pre-season activity.


2021 produced a storm in the subtropics, which is not really affected by MJO. Would only mean anything if those storms all formed in the Caribbean
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