2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3581 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:12 am

Said almost a month ago during peak season bust forecasts that Caribbean is going to be the place to watch this season. There is just a lot of untapped OHC there and waves don’t have to deal with the wavebreaking or stability issues from warm mid latitudes seen in the MDR. Went with 2 majors in last month’s forecast for rest of season and now I think we might even get 3 or 4 by end of October.


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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3582 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:14 am

Teban54 wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:speaks for itself

https://i.imgur.com/MoQu2WB.png

Not to forget this uses 1991-2020 climo with an inflated number of active years. If 1951-2020 (like NOAA) or 1981-2010 (like previously) were used, which were both balanced between the +AMO and -AMO eras, we're probably near average in ACE now.


Great point.

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3583 Postby NotSparta » Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:19 am

This chart with that climo shows that we're just barely below average now

Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3584 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:40 am

One thing's for sure at this point: it's very unlikely that we will be seeing an October/November shutout like we did last year, with the absence of Atlantic Nino. I think we will be seeing a fairly active October, and maybe two storms or so in November. Given how warm the subtropics are, I actually think there's a remote but non-zero chance we see a NS somewhere there in December. In the end, I'm willing to bet that we will end this season with 15-17 NSs.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3585 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:45 am

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3586 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:45 am

NotSparta wrote:This chart with that climo shows that we're just barely below average now

https://i.imgur.com/BjJ3J0C.png


The normal curve is running much flatter now so a busy October will blow right past it easily.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3587 Postby zzzh » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:49 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:One thing's for sure at this point: it's very unlikely that we will be seeing an October/November shutout like we did last year, with the absence of Atlantic Nino. I think we will be seeing a fairly active October, and maybe two storms or so in November. Given how warm the subtropics are, I actually think there's a remote but non-zero chance we see a NS somewhere there in December. In the end, I'm willing to bet that we will end this season with 15-17 NSs.

Image
Atl Nino is clearly there
Image
MJO amplifying through the Pacific. Not favorable for the Atlantic in October
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3588 Postby storminabox » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:17 am

zzzh wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:One thing's for sure at this point: it's very unlikely that we will be seeing an October/November shutout like we did last year, with the absence of Atlantic Nino. I think we will be seeing a fairly active October, and maybe two storms or so in November. Given how warm the subtropics are, I actually think there's a remote but non-zero chance we see a NS somewhere there in December. In the end, I'm willing to bet that we will end this season with 15-17 NSs.

https://i.imgur.com/vKNtyHq.png
Atl Nino is clearly there
https://i.imgur.com/RnR9av2.png
MJO amplifying through the Pacific. Not favorable for the Atlantic in October


MJO hasn't mattered much at all this season
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3589 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:20 am

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3590 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:35 am

zzzh wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:One thing's for sure at this point: it's very unlikely that we will be seeing an October/November shutout like we did last year, with the absence of Atlantic Nino. I think we will be seeing a fairly active October, and maybe two storms or so in November. Given how warm the subtropics are, I actually think there's a remote but non-zero chance we see a NS somewhere there in December. In the end, I'm willing to bet that we will end this season with 15-17 NSs.

https://i.imgur.com/vKNtyHq.png
Atl Nino is clearly there
https://i.imgur.com/RnR9av2.png
MJO amplifying through the Pacific. Not favorable for the Atlantic in October

The Atlantic Niño doesn’t seem to be as pronounced as last year, and ridging hasn’t been very strong. Those two factors together killed last year’s October activity. Looking at TD11 and the models, the strong ridging that plagued late 2021 just doesn’t seem to be there. But we’ll have to see how the next few possible AOIs play out to see if this will be another suppressed late season.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3591 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:57 am

From the CSU 2-week forecast:

As you can see from the above graph, Caribbean ACE is strongly positively skewed with several years having 0 ACE in the Caribbean during October-November, while other years (such as last year) having over 30 ACE. The median 1991-2020 ACE is 2, while the mean 1991-2020 ACE is 8.
The final forecast for October-November Caribbean ACE in 2022 is 15, which is well above the average and median ACE for the two-month period.

Note this only counts ACE in the Caribbean. For example, the wave that some models and ensembles currently develop into a hurricane in the eastern Atlantic does not count.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3592 Postby MarioProtVI » Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:15 pm

The sudden uptick with the 0/30 appearing and genesis within 72-96h shows that October looks to be active. Hopefully it’s better then Victor which flopped around this same timeframe because of a disturbance to its east.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3593 Postby zzzh » Thu Sep 29, 2022 2:05 pm

storminabox wrote:
zzzh wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:One thing's for sure at this point: it's very unlikely that we will be seeing an October/November shutout like we did last year, with the absence of Atlantic Nino. I think we will be seeing a fairly active October, and maybe two storms or so in November. Given how warm the subtropics are, I actually think there's a remote but non-zero chance we see a NS somewhere there in December. In the end, I'm willing to bet that we will end this season with 15-17 NSs.

https://i.imgur.com/vKNtyHq.png
Atl Nino is clearly there
https://i.imgur.com/RnR9av2.png
MJO amplifying through the Pacific. Not favorable for the Atlantic in October


MJO hasn't mattered much at all this season

Because it never amplifies through the Pacific this entire hurricane season lol
It's been traveling around the world slowly at low amplitude
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3594 Postby jconsor » Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:01 am

Nice ACE chart! Is it on your website or publicly available? I didn't see it on your site.

NotSparta wrote:This chart with that climo shows that we're just barely below average now

https://i.imgur.com/BjJ3J0C.png
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3595 Postby jconsor » Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:06 am

The "underdog" Sep 2022 has bested Sep 2020 and 2021 in terms of overall activity in the Atlantic Basin. Goes to show that ACE is not only about long-trackers. Fiona generated about 30 units of ACE, Earl a little over 20, Ian around 15 so far.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1575742205318529024


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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3596 Postby NotSparta » Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:20 am

jconsor wrote:Nice ACE chart! Is it on your website or publicly available? I didn't see it on your site.

NotSparta wrote:This chart with that climo shows that we're just barely below average now

https://i.imgur.com/BjJ3J0C.png


It's on the site, on the front page but towards the bottom
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2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3597 Postby skyline385 » Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:30 am

jconsor wrote:The "underdog" Sep 2022 has bested Sep 2020 and 2021 in terms of overall activity in the Atlantic Basin. Goes to show that ACE is not only about long-trackers. Fiona generated about 30 units of ACE, Earl a little over 20, Ian around 15 so far.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1575742205318529024



Fiona was pretty much the definition of a long tracker supported by the fact that it was a MH for a 3.5 days and it’s meteorological path, just my honest opinion.

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3598 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 30, 2022 4:37 pm

For all the talk of a quiet September, we only had three full calendar days this month with no activity.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3599 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:28 pm

Anybody have access to CFS models? I have heard how the CFS had a surprisingly good idea in advance that late September would have been very active, but I'm wondering what the model thinks of for October.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3600 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:39 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Anybody have access to CFS models? I have heard how the CFS had a surprisingly good idea in advance that late September would have been very active, but I'm wondering what the model thinks of for October.


Not much on the latest run, but remember, it's just one model run and anything will change.

The CFS model can be found on Pivotal Weather and College of DuPage.
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